BTC longterm upward trending fib levels, accumulation, halving
This is a brief overview of what I am seeing in the longterm bitcoin chart, from an investor's technical and analytical perspective, taking note that the price action seems to be responding to upward trending fibonacci levels.
I discuss my macro-view of the bitcoin price action, as well as my buy-zones for investment position accumulation.
This provides a quick way for newcomers into the market to look at the chart, know when to buy into BTC as an investment, and when to start selling. Each fib level upward indicates higher risk, and
each buy zone inside the bottom level corresponds to a "soft bull market"(green channel at bottom, my buy-zone-1) and a "full on bear market"(red channel at bottom, my buy-zone-2)
Risk gets vastly lower if the price dips into these channels, but the channels still rise over time.
The bitcoin price has been respecting these levels fib levels for years, and I believe that if you want to know what a "good" price to buy into bitcoin is on any given day,
this is a great way to see what a "good" price is right now, whether it is now or 10 years from now.
The top fib level is set on the 20k top at the end of the 2017 bubble, and the bottom fib level is set at the bottom of the 2019 bear market.
Well, it just so happens that the 14k run-up last summer corresponds with the 0.5 fib level. This shows me that it respects these levels,
and the levels themselves are rising against the USD value over time. So, in short, it becomes more difficult over time for the price to fall through
price-based support levels, and easier for it to break through price-based resistance levels, BUT it is still respecting the upward-trending fib levels.
So far, especially since the 14k run-up, the BTC price has set itself on a giant coiling wedge, with the D-day pointing right around the
much-anticipated date of the Bitcoin Block Reward Halving. Though this may be speculation-based, it won't be after ~April 2020.
After the miners' block reward payout gets cut in half, the BTC market will experience a supply shock. The daily issuance of bitcoin will be
disproportionately low compared to the daily demand.
This will not show affect in the price action immediately, I expect, because in previous halvings it took roughly one year for the market to really start a true, stable uptrend without sharp retracements.
But there are also bubble zones from speculatory run-ups.
This is exactly why I used upward trending fibs---
This gives me a good indication of what a high risk zone is for today, next week, a year from now, etc.
So I know when it's good to start to accumulate, and when to start to take profit, relative to the current date.
I don't believe that flat fib-retracements alone show the price action's dynamic reactions to these levels over time.
What are your thoughts? Let me know. I'll be doing more videos soon---Crypto Technical Analysis for investing and trading.
But for now, a macro-look into the market's largest asset is best for a start.
-Trey
I discuss my macro-view of the bitcoin price action, as well as my buy-zones for investment position accumulation.
This provides a quick way for newcomers into the market to look at the chart, know when to buy into BTC as an investment, and when to start selling. Each fib level upward indicates higher risk, and
each buy zone inside the bottom level corresponds to a "soft bull market"(green channel at bottom, my buy-zone-1) and a "full on bear market"(red channel at bottom, my buy-zone-2)
Risk gets vastly lower if the price dips into these channels, but the channels still rise over time.
The bitcoin price has been respecting these levels fib levels for years, and I believe that if you want to know what a "good" price to buy into bitcoin is on any given day,
this is a great way to see what a "good" price is right now, whether it is now or 10 years from now.
The top fib level is set on the 20k top at the end of the 2017 bubble, and the bottom fib level is set at the bottom of the 2019 bear market.
Well, it just so happens that the 14k run-up last summer corresponds with the 0.5 fib level. This shows me that it respects these levels,
and the levels themselves are rising against the USD value over time. So, in short, it becomes more difficult over time for the price to fall through
price-based support levels, and easier for it to break through price-based resistance levels, BUT it is still respecting the upward-trending fib levels.
So far, especially since the 14k run-up, the BTC price has set itself on a giant coiling wedge, with the D-day pointing right around the
much-anticipated date of the Bitcoin Block Reward Halving. Though this may be speculation-based, it won't be after ~April 2020.
After the miners' block reward payout gets cut in half, the BTC market will experience a supply shock. The daily issuance of bitcoin will be
disproportionately low compared to the daily demand.
This will not show affect in the price action immediately, I expect, because in previous halvings it took roughly one year for the market to really start a true, stable uptrend without sharp retracements.
But there are also bubble zones from speculatory run-ups.
This is exactly why I used upward trending fibs---
This gives me a good indication of what a high risk zone is for today, next week, a year from now, etc.
So I know when it's good to start to accumulate, and when to start to take profit, relative to the current date.
I don't believe that flat fib-retracements alone show the price action's dynamic reactions to these levels over time.
What are your thoughts? Let me know. I'll be doing more videos soon---Crypto Technical Analysis for investing and trading.
But for now, a macro-look into the market's largest asset is best for a start.
-Trey