Bitcoin is just correcting its very long inventory. No need to worry for longer-term holders! It is just substituting weak-hand longs for stronger ones!
This analysis was developed using #marketprofile to sort data.
What happened in previous four week:
Week 25: aggressive buying triggered by late majority entrance into the market.
Week 26: Late majority together with Laggards pushed the price to an excess high at the major resistance around $14000. The exact stop at this level & failure to break-through confirms that liquidation is mainly done by weak-hand money (late majority+laggards). Although it is a valid high, the probability of BTC holding this high is poor. Remember #JimDalton's "Exactness Kills!". Week 26 also developed a poor-low which signified the liquidation could still go on!
Week 27, very short-term traders started to buy the dips and this pushed the prices higher. However, since this bounce occurred by weaker-hand money, as it is evident by "poor low", it was unable to reach previous high at $14000. Note that the auction to the downside is NOT COMPLETE due to lack of a good base for this bounce!!! Here we got the second back to back poor-low. The odds for holding the low is very poor! Value area developed within previous week's value area indicating balancing is being formed.
Week 28: Value area was developed overlapping to slightly higher leaving a poor-high and an unchanged POC, double confirming the balance forming situation! The poor-high also signified the auction to the upside was left incomplete!
What to expect now?
I expect bitcoin liquidation will continue to the unvisited prominent POC of week 25 where a major support by longer term holders is laying at around $9100-$9200. Go long there if you witness a solid strong base. In between, we may get a small bounce up to previous week's halfback at $12000 which could be a short-term opportunity to go short (only if you are a fast-trader and can avoid to get marry to it!). The targets for long position are previous high at @13800 and (if conviction is strong) $16800.
Comment:
Testing the POC of week #25. Slow down is expected. Enter long if & only if you see reversal nuances!