Ok, thought it would be a good idea to do another update on where i think btc is heading.
My previous idea was wrong, I thought we were still in what i have named transition phases. The reason being is that i had not paid enough attention to the other transition phases since each one has been smaller by !/4.
Anyway, was just a small loss since i voided the trade at 7300, but what more important is that it made me look at it closer and has brought me to the conclusion that this will be the last peak, I am now quite convinced that the next peak we have will be higher.
Anyway the above is for long term anyway, this idea is about the next move.
Since we entered a 4th phase it has been quite obvious from the start that this was going to be shorter in time and not as deep although it feel like it is more agressive simple because it is doing it in faster time.
I have started to use cloned boxes to judge the length of time a phase might take and how deep it will be. If i measure the distance from the start of the drop to the top that is after the first low after the drop it appears to drop exactlyish the same distance again from the second top to the bottom of the phase. The only difficult part is working out what is the first real bottom and the top that comes after. Also the distance from those two points is 1 third of the length of time it has been taking to get from one top to the next top.
Anyway all in all, i think we should not go much lower than 5850 BITFINEX:BTCUSD
I do admit i sm probably only break even to maybe 60-40 profit trader - still make many rookie errors which i am eliminating quite well now, so i arent pretending i know all coz i dont and wil get things wrong. Actually as a trader my errors are normally related to Too early entry, getting the TA right but not letting the price get to its ideal entry point for fear of missing out, and second, money management. Way better than i used to be but those 2 things are pretyty much where all the 50% or 40% would go, TA side, direction, targets and often the length of time are probably stronger than 90% of traders. So anyone reading this thats a newb then you will learn this one of two ways, the expensive way, or the cheap way from someone that learnt it the expensive way.
2 Points that will keep you r losses small enough to cope with (you willl be a trader making losses if you are newb so thats fine) 1`, Leverage is your worst enemy. If you new 100% new then you should not use any leverage at all apart from x1 to short the market. A Very good trader would probably not be comfortable using x10 leverage. So your golden rule before you even start should be never use leverage over x5 and even the too high for new trader. You will be loss making trader, so why would you like to times your losses x5? Or worse by x100 haha. Dont waste thousands on learning this the difficult way. and second main point is. Never ever go all in on anything, always leave yourself with somewhere to go.
Im a tech guy, although from a different background and read many of the whitepapers. Many of them were exciting and have their chance to succeed, however the use case of the tokens was often limited, or n/a. Without a demand for a token there will be no 'bull run', or indeed desire to come back to btc.
All that remains are the big boys, who have been cleverly accumalating for not just this calander year, When/if it succeeds, the ideal of the open free idea of crypto currencies, not from regulations but from the few owning the majority. These players will be powerful, and measured with the signidicance of the crypto eco-system. Unfortuantly crypto feels like a bad place at the moment.
There is always a candle however, as the future brings unknowns. I have faith in that unknow.
Im longing from 4800-5100. Dont forget that liquidity pool that could trigger a lot of SL's. Then again, what would some do to defend them. Not long now until we find out.
Im strength of understanding of the cycle and progress of Crypto is fairly clear. I put a lot of emphasis on real world case, which is coming (see XLM or even TRX), but the store of digital wealth in Bitcoin and the empending ETF's will be enough for FI's to look to make profit on both, mid-term and long-term.
Ive learnt a very valuable lesson of late, and its often to do the opposite of the masses. The drive to this is liquidity! There's a lot of shorts going on here, and i do suspect that an unexpected pump to create liquidity to dump into their longs is on the cards.
I hold my 5100-4800 strongly, there's confluence running through that range. Happy to discuss in more details...
Im playing trades as above link, apart from the higher low seen on the weekly for the first time since Xmas. Now does that mean the FI's are going to drive us up from here, or are we going to get the lqiduidty below 5700 i dont know. Im playing trades on swings and judging things as they come.
Im still expecting that fib at 4891 to want to be touched. Now every trader might well be waiting for that, so they dont lets us have it.
I have solid TA below 4800, but i think Crypto dies if we see below 4400. Some of my best trading pals would lose confidence and move back to FX. And as for retails, if they took another loss buying in at 5xxx to see 3800, that would be the end of them too.
They want to shake retails pockets, but they dont want to beat up so they dont walk again
The more people or algos that trade a single idea, the more importance it has. I dont know how many people use different which MA, or how an algo can read a candle touching an MA line. Yes i can see how an MA line crossing the close price of a chandle which is different.
Im quite the fan of an OrderBlock coupled with swing high/low SR's, FIBs, price action with a sprinkle of RSI and MACD.
I may well be wrong here, and i do value your feedback and your views, we will soon be seeing if i am completely out here i guess.