Back on the 16th of March BTC was recovering from a quick dip under $20k and had spent a few days relaxing around $24k.
Whilst an unspectacular day in terms of price movement (all the action had played out dramatically in the days prior) it was perhaps the most significant day in this halving cycle after Novembers all time high. You see it was on March 16th that we triggered our Pi cycle reversal signal on our logarithmic growth chart.
From the excellent work done by Trader Doncic, we have identified the Pi cycle reversal as the crossing of the fast blue SMA150 above the slow orange SMA471 (as 471/150 = Pi).
When this has occured historically in Sept '15 and May '19 price has gone on to 3 figure percentage gains.
Will the 2023 Pi reversal yield a similar result? Well the technicals and fundamentals are bullish and supportive.
Since breaking from the famed falling wedge at the turn of the year we are in a solid uptrend which can be pictured as a broadening wedge as higher highs deviate more from their previous than their accompanying higher lows. As a continuation pattern we'd anticipate the uptrend to continue and we can see the current corrective move to 25K sits well within this pattern. Indeed the support of $25.2k showing on the daily chart aligns closely with a potential higher low data point on the lower trendline as well as a potential point of contact with our fast SMA150. We'd hope to bounce here and retest that upper trendline or break up.
In terms of fundamentals the low CPI and PPI numbers and rising unemployment numbers should have buoyed the market given the almost certainty they give to the FEDs upcoming rate pause, however, instead we saw a volatile breakdown.
I suspect the news that broke shortly after the data drop that market makers Jump and Jane street are exiting the US market (and potentially removing a big chunk of exchange and OTC liquidity) may have been at cause, however, the industry is claiming that the effects of the move have yet to be felt.
But regardless of this short term blip the upcoming rate pause surely means we have removed one of the major headwinds faced before we hit the next halving around this time next year.
Interested to hear your thoughts!
Whilst an unspectacular day in terms of price movement (all the action had played out dramatically in the days prior) it was perhaps the most significant day in this halving cycle after Novembers all time high. You see it was on March 16th that we triggered our Pi cycle reversal signal on our logarithmic growth chart.
From the excellent work done by Trader Doncic, we have identified the Pi cycle reversal as the crossing of the fast blue SMA150 above the slow orange SMA471 (as 471/150 = Pi).
When this has occured historically in Sept '15 and May '19 price has gone on to 3 figure percentage gains.
Will the 2023 Pi reversal yield a similar result? Well the technicals and fundamentals are bullish and supportive.
Since breaking from the famed falling wedge at the turn of the year we are in a solid uptrend which can be pictured as a broadening wedge as higher highs deviate more from their previous than their accompanying higher lows. As a continuation pattern we'd anticipate the uptrend to continue and we can see the current corrective move to 25K sits well within this pattern. Indeed the support of $25.2k showing on the daily chart aligns closely with a potential higher low data point on the lower trendline as well as a potential point of contact with our fast SMA150. We'd hope to bounce here and retest that upper trendline or break up.
In terms of fundamentals the low CPI and PPI numbers and rising unemployment numbers should have buoyed the market given the almost certainty they give to the FEDs upcoming rate pause, however, instead we saw a volatile breakdown.
I suspect the news that broke shortly after the data drop that market makers Jump and Jane street are exiting the US market (and potentially removing a big chunk of exchange and OTC liquidity) may have been at cause, however, the industry is claiming that the effects of the move have yet to be felt.
But regardless of this short term blip the upcoming rate pause surely means we have removed one of the major headwinds faced before we hit the next halving around this time next year.
Interested to hear your thoughts!