Felix000
Long

#Bitcoin being squeezed for a break-out

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Have updated daily chart . As previously posted the grey triangle area is set within important diagonal trend lines (especialy so if they begin with a fractal top or bottom). I'm now using the fractal low of $8,652.2 and $8,818 to construct a diagonal trend line on the basis that the market today May2 wont break below . A break below this trend line if set-up correctly, and based on previous set-ups was bearish . Below that trend line there would be support levels of $8,750 and $8,616 to break too. There would also be the older diagonal trend line .

I've re-posted below an edited list of my postings so far this week. I've left out postings about patterns on lower timeframes.

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April28 #Bitcoin Support $8,616 Go Long While Down Fractal Forming
--------> Apr28 Stop and review if break below $8,616. Will update chart with later post once down fractal arrow shows up. It looks like a bullish week ahead on weekly chart.

April29 #Bitcoin Williams Fractals ready to power ahead.
--------> Apr29 Stop and review if break below $8,616. Then again other support levels above that should hold. As per previous post it looks like a bullish week ahead on weekly chart.

April30 #Bitcoin key to next big move here's why.
--------> April30 Turquoise (light blue) shaded areas in my chart are formed whenever you get a consecutive day with either green or red vertical bars in my MACD . A green vertical is formed when you get a green candlestick but MACD bar drops. A red vertical is formed when you get a red candlestick and MACD bar rises. This has only happened six times this year. Each time except one occasion had you gone with the break out you win. On the occasion it didn't happen the market closed up one day out of the range and then reversed the next day to close down below the previous day's open and continued down in that direction. Good idea or not?

May1 #Bitcoin Day Chart poor start to the week
--------> May1 Was not a good start to the week.
--------> May1 Comment: I really like this chart.
--------> May1 Comment: Nice Fib levels so far- Sunday's High $9,565.1; Sunday's low $9,188.7; and Monday's low $9,099.9; Fib low using those three points would nicely extend to $8,812.3. Current Tuesday's low $8,818 just shy of $8,812. Will it break out of my shaded triangle?
Comment: A good bullish fractal high on the weekly chart would be above $11,788. How long will it take?
Comment: Potential resistance points on my charts $9,577 then $9,900 then $10,700 then $11,788 (last fractal high on weekly chart) plus $11,306 on my weekly chart
Comment: Finally, breakout. Don't want to see market closing back below May 3rd open - simply put the turquoise (light blue) shaded area has only appeared 6 times this year and five times was a huge win, only once was a huge win the other way.
Comment: Correction:Green vertical in MACD above 26 April should be colour red.
Comment: Interesting observation - if you take high Saturday May5 $9,990 and low Tuesday May1 $8,818 the 38.2% retrace is exactly Friday May4 low of $9,542.5.
Comment: Following on from above the 50% retrace is just $4 above last weeks close.
Comment: Also following on from above the 23.6% retrace is just $10 above last Friday May5 close of $9,703.
Comment: I think there is enough room in there for the week to close down if necessary i.e. just below $9,400 but above $9,236.4.

$9,256.7 is the 61.8% retrace which rests $20 above Thursdays May3 breakout candlestick which opened at $9,236.4
Comment: see latest post May8 #Bitcoin bull's still in charge only just.

What's the danger. Has yet to close below green offset 5 day MA. Gone up to sideways since last Thursday May3 breakout of downward trend line . Also broke through a couple of significant previous fractal highs on the way up. Never closed higher than 12th March resistance level $9,900 ($10,000 just psychological level). I've got nothing else to add. Could be make or break today as MACD bar in minus area first switch since April 8. Bulls still in charge since Thursday. For bears Market would have to close below offset 5 day MA. Then it's got to break down through first upwardly sloping green trend line , and close below Thursday's breakout open of $9,236.4. Then take out low $8,750 of my turquoise (light blue) rectangle that would start getting serious. Then take out $8,616 low one of my pink fractal boxes. Then take out $8,572.6 the 61.8% retrace of H. 12th March to L. 18th March. For other potential horizontal support levels see my chart.

Comment: The green offset 5 day MA point is at $9,380.13 today Tuesday 8th May.
Comment: The green line reading in the above chart of $9,166.3 is an error and should read $9231.1 that being the low of Jan17. I've corrected it in my updated post.
Comment: I'm beginning to wonder whether today May9 might be a day of carnage when shorts get burned and market closes above $10,000. It's also a day when two trend lines intersect on my chart and which is why just in case if market reversed up again and boke $9,565 I would switch to long again.
Comment: Stats for tomorrow Thursday May10. Check this out. I've just done a check since December 2017 on MACD bars. I took the 3rd day after MACD bars went into minus territory and deducted the high of the day from the low and these were my results:

All days ended down. Could tomorrow be the exception and end up?

Dec22 volatility high - low = $ 5,142
Jan11 volatility high - low = $ 2,360
Feb1 volatility high - low = $ 1,395
Mar10 volatility high - low = $ 835.5
Mar29 volatility high - low = $ 1,090
Comment: For bulls, if stats are going to follow with a down day like the last time, it could be a good idea to at least do a higher high today than yesterday. Then again can't tell the market what to do.
Comment: I think my next chart posting will have to be entitled "#bitcoin waiting for breakout follow through". What's been happening today May10. Market has posted a higher high today than yesterday - good for bulls. Volatility so far has been unimpressive compared to stat figures for historic volatility that I posted yesterday - what could that mean? The upside breakout of last week has not retreated at this moment by as much as feared. The break to the downside of the first green upwardly sloping trend line may not have been as important as if it had broken the one further down.
Comment: So May10 didn't match up to the stats in volatility but did end day down. Stats for the following day may be a step to far. For now I'm going to switch to long on retrace through $9,157.55 that's 50% of H/L of my turquoise (light blue) rectangle on the chart.
Comment: I think my idea above when to go long a good one because as previously posted previous beak outs of turquoise (light blue) rectangle have been big moves and therefore have to stick with current flow down.
Comment: See my latest post and research results "#Bitcoin Buy zone between $7,271.3 and $6,745.1 (8 to 12 day Bear market from May5. Day 7 = May12)"
Comment: CORRECTION regarding count of days.

Saturday May 12 is 8th day and not 7th day in an 8 to 12 day bear market which began Saturday May 5th with high of $9,990.
Comment: Been thinking since morning whether the points I would go long should be lowered a bit, even been drawing some new downward trend lines but then I'm thinking what news on Mon, Tue, or Wed next week could keep the price down? Will sit on the side line for now. If price touched a Bollinger band set at (20, Close, 3) on 2hr chart that could interest me outside of what's already on my Day chart.
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