This is the follow-up to 1W November 2021 analysis, given its ultimate 43.000$ target was recently matched.
What i still see is a highly risky scenario.
I can basicaly see two main options:
A) Completion of an ordinary ABC correction. This may end either with a truncation close to 36.000$ mark, or at natural target within the brader 32.000-28.000$ range. There lie some meaningful supports (e.g. FIB 0.382, MA100/W). That's last stand in order to avoid a test of the long term trend floor being MA/200W (close to 20.000$).
B) Interim bounce, from the vicinity of 40.000$ area, towards MA50/W (close to 48.000$ mark). Cannot rule out a full fledged test of the whole resistance range up to MA20/W (strong resistance - currently 52.000$), but in my opinion such bounce may well fail within. Such bounce may span up to some weeks, till further correction and loss of support. This unless an ascending triangle scenario can be achieved and confirmed (we'll evaluate).
Hence both options are fundamentaly bearish, for the time being.
Now it's matter of picking a route.
52.000$, achieved on a weekly close, is the threshold for invalidation of this analysis.
In such case will re-evaluate, till then i'd assume an overall bearish bias.
What i still see is a highly risky scenario.
- Price lost both MA20/W and MA50/W levels and the former is trending down, while the latter is expected to. They will cross eventually.
- FIB 0.618 of the whole leg up from 2019 (43.800$ area) was lost and still not reclaimed (to be evaluated on weekly close).
- NVT analysis (see related post) poses some further threat upon upcoming weeks.
I can basicaly see two main options:
A) Completion of an ordinary ABC correction. This may end either with a truncation close to 36.000$ mark, or at natural target within the brader 32.000-28.000$ range. There lie some meaningful supports (e.g. FIB 0.382, MA100/W). That's last stand in order to avoid a test of the long term trend floor being MA/200W (close to 20.000$).
B) Interim bounce, from the vicinity of 40.000$ area, towards MA50/W (close to 48.000$ mark). Cannot rule out a full fledged test of the whole resistance range up to MA20/W (strong resistance - currently 52.000$), but in my opinion such bounce may well fail within. Such bounce may span up to some weeks, till further correction and loss of support. This unless an ascending triangle scenario can be achieved and confirmed (we'll evaluate).
Hence both options are fundamentaly bearish, for the time being.
Now it's matter of picking a route.
52.000$, achieved on a weekly close, is the threshold for invalidation of this analysis.
In such case will re-evaluate, till then i'd assume an overall bearish bias.
Comment:
A) or B) ?
Let's pick one.
Let's pick one.
Comment:
Bulls have a chance to find a bounce.
Now.
A rejection there would be bad.
Now.
A rejection there would be bad.
Comment:
Rejected and new low
Bad for alts.
Bad for alts.
Comment:
That said will look down for a speculative entry, as per chart.
It may still play both ways, let's see wekly close in order to further evaluate the straight ABC option.
I have orders stacked in the 36-28k area.
Then further down in the 22-19k area, as a breakdown of 28k would confirm a double top. These are opportunistic bids which should deal with market panic, eventually. Doubt price will go that far, but whoy not taking advantage in the case.
It may still play both ways, let's see wekly close in order to further evaluate the straight ABC option.
I have orders stacked in the 36-28k area.
Then further down in the 22-19k area, as a breakdown of 28k would confirm a double top. These are opportunistic bids which should deal with market panic, eventually. Doubt price will go that far, but whoy not taking advantage in the case.
Comment:
36k reached, first lot bought at 35,7k.
Accumulating along the way down, having the chance.
Accumulating along the way down, having the chance.
Comment:
Willy facing (intra)weekly historical low ( > 0.98):
Very few precedents.
Very few precedents.
Comment:
Ongoing NVT capitulation after red->black flipping.
Similar to precedents.
Non far from guessed target area.
Interesting times ahead.
Fasten your seatbelts and watch the show.
Similar to precedents.
Non far from guessed target area.
Interesting times ahead.
Fasten your seatbelts and watch the show.
Comment:
Some preliminary considerations, afte the test of 34k: two routeas leaving some hope.
Most problems sit above.
Anyway, it would be important to achieve a good close today.
Possibly a morning star.
Most problems sit above.
Anyway, it would be important to achieve a good close today.
Possibly a morning star.
Comment:
That's pretty close ...
Comment:
Breakout suppression ongoing, let's see who wins the match.
Breakout suppression ongoing, let's see who wins the match.
Comment:
38k reached.
Possible ascending triangle:
Doubt it will succeed, but woth giving it a chance.
Watch the breakout, either way.
Possible ascending triangle:
Doubt it will succeed, but woth giving it a chance.
Watch the breakout, either way.
Comment:
Failed, yet 39k was reached.
That's interesting.
Feels like a tide turn is not far.
Watch out for traps.
Will update the scenario within next analysis.
That's interesting.
Feels like a tide turn is not far.
Watch out for traps.
Will update the scenario within next analysis.
Trade closed: target reached:
Closing.
Target not reached (32,9k > 32k), but superseded in-between by the next analisys:
Target not reached (32,9k > 32k), but superseded in-between by the next analisys:
Brace.