This is my first share. I have been in the space since 2015 and I do play with the charts a lot here on Trading view and thought I would just share one of my current running BTC charts for those interested.
My TA focus, which works for me, is more aligned with the overall BTC cycle, larger macro viewpoints, moving averages, key trend lines and key support lines and relative price points.
More macro than micro and I trade and accumulate accordingly.
I am more interested in when larger trends are closing in on possible trend reversals and moving into consolidation periods.
Key trend lines, price action trends and key moving averages.
Micro trading for me is not my preferred strategy, although I do dabble when the indicators are clearer and the probabilities are higher.
This is my preference as a longer term cycle trader and holder of crypto assets.
IMO - we are at a critical point of the current cycle, hopefully a 4 year cycle ending in Dec 2021 however I will adapt if it indeed extends to a longer 5 or 6 year cycle. We need more data and time.
My indicators still suggest we are in a 4 year cycle at this stage and all is on track even if we dip and wick down to a rather bearish 5000 area.
I will be looking for a 12500 price confirmation by the halving or at least by Q4 of 2020, some months after the halving if ok, which will still allow the Cycle 4 theory to stand. It needs time to reach new levels however we know BTC can move fast if required.
April 2021 to December 2021, if a 4 year cycle and based on history, will be the true start of a parabolic phase.
If BTC can hit 12500 again next year, the time here allowed for maturity is in my opinion enough to reach new ATH and a new top in 2021. If not, we may need to adjust and look at December 2022 or later for the top of this next cycle. Is the cycle a 4, 5 or 6 year cycle.
Lets manifest 4. If not, that is life.
My pink horizontal line resistance price points are derived from current support levels in this move, recent price action, the start of this move and when looking left back in December 2018 before it moved from 6000 range down to 3100.
Short term scenario perspectives:
Scenario 1 (Blue Arrow) - We range between 6800 to 7800 until we reach the apex of the descending channel and current upside trend line. If no break to the downside, we then continue along the bottom current macro trend line up to the top of the descending channel where we will have to wait for a confirmation of a continuation, a break out and a trend reversal with at worst an extended consolidation period. This consolidation period could be as long as a few months into late FEB 2020. I suspect March 2020 and April 2020 will be more positive with BTC either having a pre-halving bubble event or an uneventful continuation. Price will creep forward in this time. This would be a completion of a Flat ABC correction. Only concern is that the last test at 6400, a potential double bottom formation, was in fact a lower low which does suggest the overall downside channel and trend is still in play which brings in scenario 2.
Scenario 2 (Red Arrow) - The bearish descending channel is not complete. It will eventually retest the recent lower low of 6400 and break down to a new, hopefully, final bottom between 5000 & 5500. This seems very plausible at this stage. This would mean that a Zig Zag ABC or an Irregular ABC correction pattern will take final shape. What does this mean? A great buying opportunity for those who have faith and most likely a final bottom that will entice new emotional and psychological upside bullish momentum. A new upside bull trend cycle can potentially emerge. Could we go lower? Yes, however, I will just have to deal with that at the time. I will just see that as a double bonus opportunity to build position. That is all we can do. Adjust and apply.
Personally, at this stage with the data we have, Scenario 1 is playing out and holding although the moving averages do suggest a repeat of the 2018 bearish downtrend continuation. They are a mirror of each other to this point although a rally short when you look at the fractals. The more I look at it I see Scenario 2 playing out simply based on the current positions of the key moving averages, history and probabilities. Only a catalyst event, a whale pack or the cabal can swing the market from here.
Expect the unexpected. This is Crypto and BTC is king.
It will take strong bullish consolidation and time to move the MA's into a position of a reversal, golden crosses and other MA key indicators that mimic bullish trends and bull trends of the past. At the moment, we do not have that. The 50MA, 100MA, 200MA and the 200SMA are all in bearish downtrend positions. Will we see BTC hit the 200SMA? This sits at around 5000 right now and will be around 5300 - 5500 in January. Again makes gives strength to Scenario 2 as BTC has shown in the past it likes to touch the 200 SMA during the bearish period of the cycle...or at least it will come close.
Lets say we have 70 days more of uncertainty as both scenarios require time to play out and confirm before we know and that could be as late as FEB 2020.
Knowing BTC it could also gives us a big move on Christmas Day and BTC loves the Solstice periods.
Whales do like to make major moves during these magnetic solar periods.
Look out for the traditional BTC sell off in January between the 3rd and the 15th (nothing is absolute, only historical data). This is where we could see Scenario 2 play out if it is going to do what it needs to do.
Other than that.....bring on 2020, the age of Aquarius, a planetary grand alignment in Dec 2020, a new silver age, the BTC halving and hopefully a 4 year cycle confirmation by Q4 next year.
My TA focus, which works for me, is more aligned with the overall BTC cycle, larger macro viewpoints, moving averages, key trend lines and key support lines and relative price points.
More macro than micro and I trade and accumulate accordingly.
I am more interested in when larger trends are closing in on possible trend reversals and moving into consolidation periods.
Key trend lines, price action trends and key moving averages.
Micro trading for me is not my preferred strategy, although I do dabble when the indicators are clearer and the probabilities are higher.
This is my preference as a longer term cycle trader and holder of crypto assets.
IMO - we are at a critical point of the current cycle, hopefully a 4 year cycle ending in Dec 2021 however I will adapt if it indeed extends to a longer 5 or 6 year cycle. We need more data and time.
My indicators still suggest we are in a 4 year cycle at this stage and all is on track even if we dip and wick down to a rather bearish 5000 area.
I will be looking for a 12500 price confirmation by the halving or at least by Q4 of 2020, some months after the halving if ok, which will still allow the Cycle 4 theory to stand. It needs time to reach new levels however we know BTC can move fast if required.
April 2021 to December 2021, if a 4 year cycle and based on history, will be the true start of a parabolic phase.
If BTC can hit 12500 again next year, the time here allowed for maturity is in my opinion enough to reach new ATH and a new top in 2021. If not, we may need to adjust and look at December 2022 or later for the top of this next cycle. Is the cycle a 4, 5 or 6 year cycle.
Lets manifest 4. If not, that is life.
My pink horizontal line resistance price points are derived from current support levels in this move, recent price action, the start of this move and when looking left back in December 2018 before it moved from 6000 range down to 3100.
Short term scenario perspectives:
Scenario 1 (Blue Arrow) - We range between 6800 to 7800 until we reach the apex of the descending channel and current upside trend line. If no break to the downside, we then continue along the bottom current macro trend line up to the top of the descending channel where we will have to wait for a confirmation of a continuation, a break out and a trend reversal with at worst an extended consolidation period. This consolidation period could be as long as a few months into late FEB 2020. I suspect March 2020 and April 2020 will be more positive with BTC either having a pre-halving bubble event or an uneventful continuation. Price will creep forward in this time. This would be a completion of a Flat ABC correction. Only concern is that the last test at 6400, a potential double bottom formation, was in fact a lower low which does suggest the overall downside channel and trend is still in play which brings in scenario 2.
Scenario 2 (Red Arrow) - The bearish descending channel is not complete. It will eventually retest the recent lower low of 6400 and break down to a new, hopefully, final bottom between 5000 & 5500. This seems very plausible at this stage. This would mean that a Zig Zag ABC or an Irregular ABC correction pattern will take final shape. What does this mean? A great buying opportunity for those who have faith and most likely a final bottom that will entice new emotional and psychological upside bullish momentum. A new upside bull trend cycle can potentially emerge. Could we go lower? Yes, however, I will just have to deal with that at the time. I will just see that as a double bonus opportunity to build position. That is all we can do. Adjust and apply.
Personally, at this stage with the data we have, Scenario 1 is playing out and holding although the moving averages do suggest a repeat of the 2018 bearish downtrend continuation. They are a mirror of each other to this point although a rally short when you look at the fractals. The more I look at it I see Scenario 2 playing out simply based on the current positions of the key moving averages, history and probabilities. Only a catalyst event, a whale pack or the cabal can swing the market from here.
Expect the unexpected. This is Crypto and BTC is king.
It will take strong bullish consolidation and time to move the MA's into a position of a reversal, golden crosses and other MA key indicators that mimic bullish trends and bull trends of the past. At the moment, we do not have that. The 50MA, 100MA, 200MA and the 200SMA are all in bearish downtrend positions. Will we see BTC hit the 200SMA? This sits at around 5000 right now and will be around 5300 - 5500 in January. Again makes gives strength to Scenario 2 as BTC has shown in the past it likes to touch the 200 SMA during the bearish period of the cycle...or at least it will come close.
Lets say we have 70 days more of uncertainty as both scenarios require time to play out and confirm before we know and that could be as late as FEB 2020.
Knowing BTC it could also gives us a big move on Christmas Day and BTC loves the Solstice periods.
Whales do like to make major moves during these magnetic solar periods.
Look out for the traditional BTC sell off in January between the 3rd and the 15th (nothing is absolute, only historical data). This is where we could see Scenario 2 play out if it is going to do what it needs to do.
Other than that.....bring on 2020, the age of Aquarius, a planetary grand alignment in Dec 2020, a new silver age, the BTC halving and hopefully a 4 year cycle confirmation by Q4 next year.