After being concerned about BTC's potential bull flag on the daily, which it looks to have recently broken upwards (good news for us all). I thought I'd look at it from a different, bullish perspective. Around mid to late Nov last year we went extremely parabolic. I'm new to this caper and hear many warning of markets going parabolic. However this seems to happen in crypto. There is so much hype around it. Its accessible and it is traded 24/7. Parabolic increases do not surprise me, however the Nov to Jan trend was almost vertical (amazingly)...and could never last.
It is early days but we might be slotting back into a Sept to Nov trend line, also illustrated by the pitch fork. it sets BTC up nicely to make some runs at the 38 fib and if it wedges itself between the trend line and 38 fib, she should form a bullish pennant. Before breaking through to test the next resistance line....we hope....and this is BTC...it could be testing the 50% in like 3 hrs.
Again, Im new to this and tryin' to learn. Feedback is appreciated.
It is early days but we might be slotting back into a Sept to Nov trend line, also illustrated by the pitch fork. it sets BTC up nicely to make some runs at the 38 fib and if it wedges itself between the trend line and 38 fib, she should form a bullish pennant. Before breaking through to test the next resistance line....we hope....and this is BTC...it could be testing the 50% in like 3 hrs.
Again, Im new to this and tryin' to learn. Feedback is appreciated.
Comment:
The resistance came at about 11.8k. As mentioned earlier and looking at the chart historically, around 12k was always going to be a hard task on first attempt. Looking at the RSI on the 4hr chart we can see that we are heading into oversold territory. But remember, we are coming off a huge sell off, people are jumpy and are going to react stronger to red candles than green ones, so we could retrace more before re-loading and trying to crack 12k again. I have highlighted 2 support resistance lines in pink, if we pull back to the lower of the 2 now and then hit the higher one and pull back again, we form a head and shoulders so be mindful of that neck line. I dont think we do, I think based off of the RSI and EMA's (not shown here) we move up again and test the 38 fib.
The resistance came at about 11.8k. As mentioned earlier and looking at the chart historically, around 12k was always going to be a hard task on first attempt. Looking at the RSI on the 4hr chart we can see that we are heading into oversold territory. But remember, we are coming off a huge sell off, people are jumpy and are going to react stronger to red candles than green ones, so we could retrace more before re-loading and trying to crack 12k again. I have highlighted 2 support resistance lines in pink, if we pull back to the lower of the 2 now and then hit the higher one and pull back again, we form a head and shoulders so be mindful of that neck line. I dont think we do, I think based off of the RSI and EMA's (not shown here) we move up again and test the 38 fib.
Comment:
Alot of price action pushing the price down as we go through a bit of a sell off and again search for support. Any negative price action was always going to happen swiftly, we have just come off a huge sell off, sentiment is shaky. hair trigger sell offs will happen. BTC was able to fall through previous support lines and now rests on the 23.6 fib line, which is also a heavy resistance line from early Feb, in other words it is strong support/resistance. Do we fall through? It is hard to say. Nothing has happened in any great volume, we are not moving in any direction with force at the moment. Line ball...but the RSI indicator suggests we may pullback some more so I think the odds slighlty favour further pullback. If so, we will go to 8.5k (or thereabouts) where there was alot of action mid month after we reached bottom. This coincides nicely with the center channel of our pitchfork. So for now, all eyes on the 23.6 fib, as i type this it is holding,but volume will be key in either direction.
Comment:
The 23.6 fib on our trend based fib extension held and continues to do so. After BTC made a liar out of me I took a better more pragmatic look at that line. Buyers see value in that 9 - 9.5k area. Clearly. In Dec and twice in Jan (I did not highlight the late Jan test, missed it) we can see volume. I am confident that we will go back and test it, but now not so confident we fall through. Which is good! There is a lot of chatter around an inverted head and shoulders, which is starting to look likely. So keep an eye on that. For now we pullback into our ascending triangle and without volume, we will move through more sideways chop. Watch the inverted head and shoulders, watch the 23.6 fib and watch for volume. Good luck.
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P.S: if you are looking to make trades in the meantime, then I think making trades between the 23.6 and 32 fib is the way to go. Remember to wait for confirmations though.
Comment:
Not a great deal to update here. Moving pretty much as expected. Volume is ok, but not enough to smash through that 11k wall. I believe it will happen. But I believe we will need some news on the fundamental side before doing so. Right now, as we hug the middle of our pitchfork, both the MACD and WT indicators offer nothing by way of movement. This is our equilibrium and the price should oscillate around this trend line for some time, perhaps and more than likely, interlaced with buy ups and sell offs. I welcome constructive criticism, i am a noob and trying to learn.
Not a great deal to update here. Moving pretty much as expected. Volume is ok, but not enough to smash through that 11k wall. I believe it will happen. But I believe we will need some news on the fundamental side before doing so. Right now, as we hug the middle of our pitchfork, both the MACD and WT indicators offer nothing by way of movement. This is our equilibrium and the price should oscillate around this trend line for some time, perhaps and more than likely, interlaced with buy ups and sell offs. I welcome constructive criticism, i am a noob and trying to learn.
Comment:
Business as usual. We smashed in to the 38 without the force to go through it. We lack the volume right now.
There hasn't been a major sell off though and we are managing to hover just below it. Do we get through on this push? Potentially. But only with some volume. We watch for confirmation but I think we head south again to look for support. We have our fib and support lines setup so we know where they will come.
Lastly, alot of talk about channels this and broken trend this etc etc. Look at the indicators, any downward trend was broken on the 6th of Feb. We know where we are and where we are going. We are in a market that has corrected from going parabolic and have corrected to the trend line preceding it. We are wedged between that trend line and the 38 fib, we have been since mid feb. We wait for a break over or under or we trade between the 23.6 and the 38.
Business as usual. We smashed in to the 38 without the force to go through it. We lack the volume right now.
There hasn't been a major sell off though and we are managing to hover just below it. Do we get through on this push? Potentially. But only with some volume. We watch for confirmation but I think we head south again to look for support. We have our fib and support lines setup so we know where they will come.
Lastly, alot of talk about channels this and broken trend this etc etc. Look at the indicators, any downward trend was broken on the 6th of Feb. We know where we are and where we are going. We are in a market that has corrected from going parabolic and have corrected to the trend line preceding it. We are wedged between that trend line and the 38 fib, we have been since mid feb. We wait for a break over or under or we trade between the 23.6 and the 38.
Comment:
Nothing like a bit of FUD to get us rocketing toward the 23.6 fib line! Lucky our chart is good and we knew where to place our bids. BTC kissed it perfectly. It was a good buying opportunity. Where to now? Do we go back the 38? Back to the 23.6? There are no crystal balls. It's hard to say. We need to watch and wait. We need to keep an eye on the next mental hurdle which is 10k (a fair sell wall is already developing there at GDAX). If we break 10k then we watch the volume as head toward to 11k and the 38 fib line. Without the juice we will get knocked back again. All the best.
Nothing like a bit of FUD to get us rocketing toward the 23.6 fib line! Lucky our chart is good and we knew where to place our bids. BTC kissed it perfectly. It was a good buying opportunity. Where to now? Do we go back the 38? Back to the 23.6? There are no crystal balls. It's hard to say. We need to watch and wait. We need to keep an eye on the next mental hurdle which is 10k (a fair sell wall is already developing there at GDAX). If we break 10k then we watch the volume as head toward to 11k and the 38 fib line. Without the juice we will get knocked back again. All the best.
Comment:
Critical point for BTC right here. Our pitchfork quarter or inside channel offered support. We fell through temporarily but pulled back in (best viewed on daily candles). That inside channel, the 62 fib and bear trend line our now converging. If we cant pass through I believe we will test the bottom blue line of our pitch fork, we push through and we go to the median line. No crystal balls though and as always, as a noob, i welcome feedback and ideas.
Comment:
Inside channel of pitch fork didnt hold, we fell through and then pulled back, fell through again, found support again and double bottomed and pulled back again. This time with enough force to punch through the 62 fib which we are now perched on top of. We'll pullback and test the 62, hopefully it holds. Right now BTC looks good though. Volume is increasing with the buying. Our indicators are all pointing in the right direction and there is nice kumo twist (circle) for us to break through. If we do, I think we do, we will attack that trend line once more (I was advised to switch to log view, hence it may look a little different). These are just my thoughts, I appreciate any feedback.
Trade closed manually:
Closing this as it has really just turned into an ideas thread. I will open one of those and leave it public as I invite feedback, comments etc. Im hoping to learn out of this current bear market.
So far so good. In fact better than many expected. As suspected we have made our way to the 38 fib. On first attempt we found too much resistance at a previous at previous support levels before pulling back before pulling back to a strong support level from late Jan/Early Feb. As i type this we make a charge at the 38, do we break through? Maybe, but expect heavy resistance at around 12k (see late Jan). There should be a pull back, I suspect beyond the 38 and back to a previous support line.