BTC 20K

There are events happening very similar to the 2008 crash. Simply put, remove homes and insert cryptos and there are many similar factors lining up. Please read with an open mind. If you’re on the right side of the trade, any by this I mean making money, this even means not losing money, then this is an opportunity to maximize profits. If you’re not I respect that our trading styles are different, good luck (which has nothing to do with it :-) )

BTC Simplified
1 triangle pattern failed (blue lines)
2 head and shoulder pattern developed (green lines)
3 death cross forming (50ema crosses below 200ema) (yellow circle)

Analysis
Death cross happens and price loses support, what I see is another large distribution day happening after the death cross. Notice on the chart January 11, 2021 was the first distribution day with 274% increase in volume. As the head and shoulders bubbled up, everyone believing 200k is coming the volume is not there to support the price going higher. April 18-25, 2021 more above average distribution with a 503% increase in volume as seen on May 19, 2021. Proof the bears are in charge.

When/if the death cross happens, my analysis is it will happen the next large distribution day will be confirmation BTC is heading down to 20k.

As I always say, anything can happen and will continue to watch.

Key events
The Fed is Quantitative Easing, which is pumping money into the market by buying bonds. They did the same thing in 2008 trying to help with the housing market and we know this lead to horrible 2008 crash.

Cryptos “may” (my analysis “are”) facing the same situation and possibly worse. Banks gave out money and took on bad debt inflating their books that created the housing bubble. PLEASE READ THIS NEXT PART CAREFULLY I BELIEVE IT’S WORTH YOUR TIME if you hold BTC.

The amount of retail investors that purchased shares of BTC on margin, whether this be an actual margin account or worse a credit card are no different than those that extended mortgages in 2008. The new apps allow credit cards to be drawn from. Some even have an auto option to withdraw money monthly. This is no different than the housing crash, when this is realized, and institutions/whales sell BTC the price will drop substantially and many that have leveraged using credit cards or other means will be devastated. By this, will not recover and will be left in debt.

Trade active:

I notice a small amount of accumulation the last three days of trading. It's raised a flag but not enough to sell, or buy...seeing I'm currently shorting. I've placed tight alerts to help keep an eye on this particular junction. My analysis shows there's still too much selling and bears are in charge. Appears to be a reaction rally.

Trade active:

BTC showing strong support. I'm moving the projected low 13k area up to 23k. Still see some downside that I hope trickles down keeping a nice tight pattern. This is healthy before bulls come in and move the price up towards 40k eventually the 60k area. If enough momentum then BTC can advance in a healthy way towards 75-100K.

To me I'm not looking for a trip to the moon or any nonsense like this. This isn't investing. I'm looking for the cup handle portion to play out to make profits shorting on the pattern towards the low and then moving into a long position while working the way up on the right side of the cup. Of course this is all speculation and may/may not change as time goes by. I don't mind watching closely and making changes as the market tells me to.

Note, I have ideas prior to this that show a monthly chart and a better understanding how I came up with 13k area. I'm leaving this idea active for now, may close to just follow one BTC idea.

Trade closed: stop reached