Bitcoin is a very singular asset, there is no other similar crypto in the world. I don’t know if it’s the future or not, but there is no alternative to Bitcoin so it’s a monopoly. Take care: A monopoly of a useless thing has a value of 0.
ETH, LTC or other tokens are not like BTC because there are companies or groups behind them. One of the key concepts in BTC are halvings, if it’s the first time you hear this be sure to understand this before you do anything else. If not, you know that halvings happen every 2 years and there is a reduction of coins and it’s harder to mine, so it’s an inflationary system.
When we look the past cycles, we clearly see that the market switch every 2 years from bullish to bearish, so it’s common to read that you should wait until 4Q 2023 to start buying again when the next cycle start. Looking at the past, we see that bullish cycles end after 2 years, but bearish cycles had 1 year of bullish sentiment and one more of flat market with some interesting rallies.
According to this simple analysis we could think that now, after 1 year of bearish market we could face the bottom in BTC/USD and would expect a 2023 with volatility but at the end flat (See previous circles in the bearish markets).
Anyway, the market is clearly bearish and we’ve not seen any bullish power yet in the short term. The idea is to monitor the shorter-term time frames to look for a good moment to start buying BTC. Follow to find out the best moments to start buying again, I’ll monitor BTC closely.
On the other hand, take care, we are facing red flags in BTC which are relevant, and we must be sure that we understand where we are:
1. The BTC capitalization, even after the fall, is MASSIVE. Moving higher will be difficult because to double the capitalization you need much more money coming in!
2. We are handling with many crises in BTC exchanges, and some are simply scam, so BTC is related now with the darkside, so it’s harder to attract investors or funds than few years ago.
3. There is no mainstream utility. This is crucial for the future, we are betting that BTC will be useful someday, but right now it’s far away from being mainstream.
4. We have not seen extreme panic, and that’s usually what creates a bottom. Maybe some other crash could lead to panic, and we could finally see a V shape end. And furthermore, we have FOMO (fear of missing out) still present so many people are still Holding losses… a last big move downwards could be the moment for the final sell off.
5. If you like Elliott waves you can easily find a pattern of 5 expansive waves. Which accomplish everything bcs wave 2-4 are different and prices do not overlap. Now, we should be in the correction phase in an A wave. On the bright side, next wave should be corrective but bullish, so we should not see new maximums, but we could easily see a rally of 100% or more.
In conclusion, I’ll keep monitoring the daily time frame to find a good entry point because as you know, if a knife is falling is better to wait until it touches the floor 😉.
ETH, LTC or other tokens are not like BTC because there are companies or groups behind them. One of the key concepts in BTC are halvings, if it’s the first time you hear this be sure to understand this before you do anything else. If not, you know that halvings happen every 2 years and there is a reduction of coins and it’s harder to mine, so it’s an inflationary system.
When we look the past cycles, we clearly see that the market switch every 2 years from bullish to bearish, so it’s common to read that you should wait until 4Q 2023 to start buying again when the next cycle start. Looking at the past, we see that bullish cycles end after 2 years, but bearish cycles had 1 year of bullish sentiment and one more of flat market with some interesting rallies.
According to this simple analysis we could think that now, after 1 year of bearish market we could face the bottom in BTC/USD and would expect a 2023 with volatility but at the end flat (See previous circles in the bearish markets).
Anyway, the market is clearly bearish and we’ve not seen any bullish power yet in the short term. The idea is to monitor the shorter-term time frames to look for a good moment to start buying BTC. Follow to find out the best moments to start buying again, I’ll monitor BTC closely.
On the other hand, take care, we are facing red flags in BTC which are relevant, and we must be sure that we understand where we are:
1. The BTC capitalization, even after the fall, is MASSIVE. Moving higher will be difficult because to double the capitalization you need much more money coming in!
2. We are handling with many crises in BTC exchanges, and some are simply scam, so BTC is related now with the darkside, so it’s harder to attract investors or funds than few years ago.
3. There is no mainstream utility. This is crucial for the future, we are betting that BTC will be useful someday, but right now it’s far away from being mainstream.
4. We have not seen extreme panic, and that’s usually what creates a bottom. Maybe some other crash could lead to panic, and we could finally see a V shape end. And furthermore, we have FOMO (fear of missing out) still present so many people are still Holding losses… a last big move downwards could be the moment for the final sell off.
5. If you like Elliott waves you can easily find a pattern of 5 expansive waves. Which accomplish everything bcs wave 2-4 are different and prices do not overlap. Now, we should be in the correction phase in an A wave. On the bright side, next wave should be corrective but bullish, so we should not see new maximums, but we could easily see a rally of 100% or more.
In conclusion, I’ll keep monitoring the daily time frame to find a good entry point because as you know, if a knife is falling is better to wait until it touches the floor 😉.
