Last week, the U.S. dollar remained weak and risk appetite returned strongly, keeping Bitcoin (BTC) firm. Technically, continue to pay attention to how Bitcoin breaks through the range consolidation. If it can break through the top of the range at 29,000, it may challenge the 30,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Highs on Weaker Dollar and Strong Return of Risk Appetite
The general financial market environment was favorable for Bitcoin (BTC) last week. Despite a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials and rising market expectations for a rate hike in May, the U.S. dollar remains weak and risk appetite has seen a strong recovery, which constitutes support for Bitcoin (BTC).
As worries in the U.S. banking sector dissipated, Fed officials took a hawkish stance in favor of continuing to raise interest rates. The chairman of the Richmond Fed said that "as long as the risk of inflation persists, we will continue to raise interest rates"; the chairman of the Boston Fed said that "we will not cut interest rates this year, and will continue to tighten policies to fight inflation"; the chairman of the Minneapolis Fed said that inflation must be fought, The 2% target will not be changed.
In terms of Fed rate hike expectations, at the beginning of last week, the market expected that the possibility of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May was less than 20%, but at the end of last week, the probability of continuing to raise interest rates in May increased to around 50%. Even so, the U.S. dollar index is down 0.5% for the week, and the dollar’s weakness is bullish for Bitcoin (BTC).
This week's rise in risk appetite has particularly supported the prices of riskier assets such as Bitcoin (BTC). Although the dissipation of worries in the US banking industry did not make the Fed's policy outlook return to hawkishness, investors' appetite for risky assets has become greater than before the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. The S&P 500 surged 3.48% last week, hitting a one-and-a-half-month high.
The data released by the United States last Friday showed that the core PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 4.6% in February, while it is expected to remain at the previous level of 4.7%; the overall PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 5.0% in February, lower than the expected 5.1% % and the previous value of 5.3%.
As the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the unexpected decline in PCE inflation will increase the possibility of the Fed pausing interest rate hikes, thereby continuing to suppress the dollar and support risk appetite, creating conditions that continue to favor the trend of Bitcoin (BTC).
Bitcoin (BTC) price trend technical analysis: If it breaks through the consolidation range, it may try to break through $30,000
The four-hour chart shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has fluctuated in a large range of 26,700-29,000 since March 18, and has entered a smaller range of 27,700-29,000 since last Wednesday. Short-term suggestions focus on how to break the smaller range interval.
If Bitcoin can break through 29,000, it means not only breaking through the small range but also breaking through the large range, or ushering in more room for growth, and it may point to 30,000 and higher levels. And if it falls below the support around 27700, the bottom of the small range, it may fall to around 26700, the bottom of the large range. If it continues to break down, it means more downside space.
I have been busy with my own affairs recently, so it has not been updated for a while. The overall idea of Bitcoin has not changed. You can hold it with peace of mind.
Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Highs on Weaker Dollar and Strong Return of Risk Appetite
The general financial market environment was favorable for Bitcoin (BTC) last week. Despite a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials and rising market expectations for a rate hike in May, the U.S. dollar remains weak and risk appetite has seen a strong recovery, which constitutes support for Bitcoin (BTC).
As worries in the U.S. banking sector dissipated, Fed officials took a hawkish stance in favor of continuing to raise interest rates. The chairman of the Richmond Fed said that "as long as the risk of inflation persists, we will continue to raise interest rates"; the chairman of the Boston Fed said that "we will not cut interest rates this year, and will continue to tighten policies to fight inflation"; the chairman of the Minneapolis Fed said that inflation must be fought, The 2% target will not be changed.
In terms of Fed rate hike expectations, at the beginning of last week, the market expected that the possibility of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May was less than 20%, but at the end of last week, the probability of continuing to raise interest rates in May increased to around 50%. Even so, the U.S. dollar index is down 0.5% for the week, and the dollar’s weakness is bullish for Bitcoin (BTC).
This week's rise in risk appetite has particularly supported the prices of riskier assets such as Bitcoin (BTC). Although the dissipation of worries in the US banking industry did not make the Fed's policy outlook return to hawkishness, investors' appetite for risky assets has become greater than before the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. The S&P 500 surged 3.48% last week, hitting a one-and-a-half-month high.
The data released by the United States last Friday showed that the core PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 4.6% in February, while it is expected to remain at the previous level of 4.7%; the overall PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 5.0% in February, lower than the expected 5.1% % and the previous value of 5.3%.
As the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the unexpected decline in PCE inflation will increase the possibility of the Fed pausing interest rate hikes, thereby continuing to suppress the dollar and support risk appetite, creating conditions that continue to favor the trend of Bitcoin (BTC).
Bitcoin (BTC) price trend technical analysis: If it breaks through the consolidation range, it may try to break through $30,000
The four-hour chart shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has fluctuated in a large range of 26,700-29,000 since March 18, and has entered a smaller range of 27,700-29,000 since last Wednesday. Short-term suggestions focus on how to break the smaller range interval.
If Bitcoin can break through 29,000, it means not only breaking through the small range but also breaking through the large range, or ushering in more room for growth, and it may point to 30,000 and higher levels. And if it falls below the support around 27700, the bottom of the small range, it may fall to around 26700, the bottom of the large range. If it continues to break down, it means more downside space.
I have been busy with my own affairs recently, so it has not been updated for a while. The overall idea of Bitcoin has not changed. You can hold it with peace of mind.