averkie_skila

Unique contradictions these days.

averkie_skila Updated   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
So, I opened the trading chart 1M hasn't turned it on for a long time.

The Kijun-Sen line crosses thin neck of the Kumo cloud. In fact, the candle is hovering in that thin neck!!!
If the March candle opens behind the cloud, there is enough of a bear market for all of 2023.

Also, the white line is a simple 200-day monthly MA.

Also the orange one is daily EMA50. And the pin stuck into it.

The HLIDX indicator (from the respected LazyBear)
shows that we are in bearish territory.

It's a mind blast.

Comment:

What did this situation look like in 2019? It was nothing like the current one.

1. The lower edge of the cloud was extremely close to the range of the monthly trade.
The lower edge of the cloud on the monthly chart now lies at around 33,000 thousand.
2. the tenkan-sen was near the corner of the cloud. It is now hovering at ~42000 and quite far from the edge of the cloud.
3. no candle body has opened below the EMA 20/50/100 lines. All candlestick bodies closed above the lines.
4. HLIDX was firmly on the bullish side.

Now it's a unique set of circumstances.
Comment:

How to interpret this with such a scope...
Okay, so we have the second situation in the history of bitcoin candle passing under the Leading Span B on 1M.

1. It strengthens the bearish signal that Lagging Span crossed candle and kijun/tenkan again.
2. On a simple candlestick chart, the last time the candle hit below the Kijun-Sen and it was under the cloud, besides there was a Tenkan-Sen. They were already under the cloud.
Now on regular chart candles is under the cloud, but above Kijun-sen. At the same time Tenkan-sen is still hovering high above the cloud... This is a powerful uncertainty.

However, on the second variant of the Heikin-Ashi chart the candle hit exactly the Kijun-sen, which looks like a stop.

HLIDX shows that we have a move into bullish territory, the highs are printing more often.

But OK, if the price will test the Leading Span B right now, that means it will have to hit a nearly vertical line; you can see the thin "neck" formed by the lines. Roughly by eye it could be ~$28,000

I can state that these are all very bearish signs and it all still has huge reserves to go first one way then the other. We are not going to the moon. But we're not going down right now either.
Comment:
I don't forget to keep track of this schedule as well. From today to tomorrow the month closes.
Pin rests on neck of the cloud from below.
Comment:
It remains to wait for the close of the monthly candle.
But I don't believe it'll be able to break up through.
Comment:
So, a clean close of candle under the cloud.
We have too much option space before BTC halving.
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