BTC Bitcoin Strong Bullish Will Rise to 37000,46000 and 71000USD
BTC Bulls to Retarget $31,500
BTC could be in for a choppy session as investors consider the chances of SEC approvals for the ETFs and US inflation in focus.
the crypto news wires provided much-needed support. News of Fidelity filing for a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) was the key to the bullish session.
This morning, BTC was down 0.03% to $30,524. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an early high of $30,534 to a low of $30,507.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($30,032). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A hold above S1 ($30,158) and the 50-day EMA ($30,032) would support a move through R1 ($30,882) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($31,232). However, a fall through S1 ($30,158) and the 50-day EMA ($30,032) would bring S2 ($29,784) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 30,882 S1 – $ 30,158
R2 – $ 31,232 S2 – $ 29,784
R3 – $ 31,956 S3 – $ 29,060
Strategy Bullish
3Lots
2 Lots will be excecuted at Profit Target Zones
1Lot will follow the Trend
It will be only!!! excecuted ,if Bullish Trend changes
The stops will be delivered as soon as possible to break even,better some pips above the Buyinh price
I have marked my profit targets
Psychology:
1:The price is always right
2The Market is alwas right
3 The Chart is always right
4 IGNORE THE NEWS; Plan your trades and trade your plan.
5Drawdowns are partof the game
6 Risk management and money mangement is King!
7 wHATEVER HAPPENS;sTICK TO YOUR PLAN!
8 In a bear market no price is weak enough
9 In a bull market no price is strong enough
10 Patience !Wait for confirmation: Control emotions and tensions.
BTC could be in for a choppy session as investors consider the chances of SEC approvals for the ETFs and US inflation in focus.
the crypto news wires provided much-needed support. News of Fidelity filing for a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) was the key to the bullish session.
This morning, BTC was down 0.03% to $30,524. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an early high of $30,534 to a low of $30,507.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($30,032). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A hold above S1 ($30,158) and the 50-day EMA ($30,032) would support a move through R1 ($30,882) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($31,232). However, a fall through S1 ($30,158) and the 50-day EMA ($30,032) would bring S2 ($29,784) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 30,882 S1 – $ 30,158
R2 – $ 31,232 S2 – $ 29,784
R3 – $ 31,956 S3 – $ 29,060
Strategy Bullish
3Lots
2 Lots will be excecuted at Profit Target Zones
1Lot will follow the Trend
It will be only!!! excecuted ,if Bullish Trend changes
The stops will be delivered as soon as possible to break even,better some pips above the Buyinh price
I have marked my profit targets
Psychology:
1:The price is always right
2The Market is alwas right
3 The Chart is always right
4 IGNORE THE NEWS; Plan your trades and trade your plan.
5Drawdowns are partof the game
6 Risk management and money mangement is King!
7 wHATEVER HAPPENS;sTICK TO YOUR PLAN!
8 In a bear market no price is weak enough
9 In a bull market no price is strong enough
10 Patience !Wait for confirmation: Control emotions and tensions.
Comment:
Wall Street Edges Higher on Shortened Monday Session
Comment:
TREND BLLISH
PROFIT TAKINGS AND MORE ACCUMULATIONS
US Mortgage Rates Rise to 8-Month HighUnited States 30 Year Mortgage Rate
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased by 10 basis points from the previous week to 6.81% in the week ending July 6th, the highest November 2022 as higher interest from the Federal Reserve underpinned expensive mortgage rates for American consumers. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 5.3%. “Mortgage rates continued their upward trajectory again this week, rising to the highest rate this year so far,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “This upward trend is being driven by a resilient economy, persistent inflation and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. These high rates combined with low inventory continue to price many potential homebuyers out of the market.”
PROFIT TAKINGS AND MORE ACCUMULATIONS
US Mortgage Rates Rise to 8-Month HighUnited States 30 Year Mortgage Rate
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased by 10 basis points from the previous week to 6.81% in the week ending July 6th, the highest November 2022 as higher interest from the Federal Reserve underpinned expensive mortgage rates for American consumers. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 5.3%. “Mortgage rates continued their upward trajectory again this week, rising to the highest rate this year so far,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “This upward trend is being driven by a resilient economy, persistent inflation and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. These high rates combined with low inventory continue to price many potential homebuyers out of the market.”
Comment:
Wall Street Ends in the Green
The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.
The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.
Comment:
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 2nd Session
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.
Comment:
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 2nd Session
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.
Comment:
Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI Data
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
Comment:
US Stocks Pop on Cooling Inflation
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.
Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.
Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
Comment:
Wall Street Ends Higher after CPI
The RICS UK Residential Market Survey house price balance, which measures the gap between the percentage of respondents seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -46 in June 2023 from -30 in May, posting the weakest reading in four months and coming in below forecasts of -34. This points to a slowdown in the British housing market as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand, with average two-year fixed mortgage rates in the country recently hitting a 15-year high. Expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates further this year to bring down inflation also dampened sentiment. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economics at RICS, said: “The latest increase in interest rates and the impact this has already had on mortgage rates is clearly visible in buyer enquiries, sales and prices which have all retreated over the past month.”
The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index in New Zealand fell to 47.5 in June 2023 from 48.9 in the previous month. It marked the fourth straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the steepest since last November as activities negatively influenced by declining demand, cost increases and production/staffing issues as the key negative influences on activity for the current month. Production (47.5 vs 45.7 in May) remained subdued and new orders (43.8 vs 50.8) fell back to contraction zone. Meanwhile, employment (47 vs 49.5) contracted further while deliveries (50.5 vs 46) rebounded.
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index gave up on earlier gains to close 0.1% higher to finish around 117,700 on Wednesday, inline with global positive mood, after the US inflation data came in below expectations in June, even the core measures, suggesting a possible turning point for Federal Reserve policymakers in the coming months. On the domestic data front, services activity in Brazil grew by a more-than-expected 0.9% in May, following a decline of 1.5% in the previous month, placing the sector 11.5% above the pre-pandemic level of February 2020. On the corporate front, shares in the world's largest meatpacker JBS surged 9%, the most in the index, after proposing a dual listing of shares in Sao Paulo and New York in a securities filing today. It was followed by B3 (+2.4%), Gerdau (+2.1%) and PetroRio (+2%).
The RICS UK Residential Market Survey house price balance, which measures the gap between the percentage of respondents seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -46 in June 2023 from -30 in May, posting the weakest reading in four months and coming in below forecasts of -34. This points to a slowdown in the British housing market as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand, with average two-year fixed mortgage rates in the country recently hitting a 15-year high. Expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates further this year to bring down inflation also dampened sentiment. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economics at RICS, said: “The latest increase in interest rates and the impact this has already had on mortgage rates is clearly visible in buyer enquiries, sales and prices which have all retreated over the past month.”
The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index in New Zealand fell to 47.5 in June 2023 from 48.9 in the previous month. It marked the fourth straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the steepest since last November as activities negatively influenced by declining demand, cost increases and production/staffing issues as the key negative influences on activity for the current month. Production (47.5 vs 45.7 in May) remained subdued and new orders (43.8 vs 50.8) fell back to contraction zone. Meanwhile, employment (47 vs 49.5) contracted further while deliveries (50.5 vs 46) rebounded.
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index gave up on earlier gains to close 0.1% higher to finish around 117,700 on Wednesday, inline with global positive mood, after the US inflation data came in below expectations in June, even the core measures, suggesting a possible turning point for Federal Reserve policymakers in the coming months. On the domestic data front, services activity in Brazil grew by a more-than-expected 0.9% in May, following a decline of 1.5% in the previous month, placing the sector 11.5% above the pre-pandemic level of February 2020. On the corporate front, shares in the world's largest meatpacker JBS surged 9%, the most in the index, after proposing a dual listing of shares in Sao Paulo and New York in a securities filing today. It was followed by B3 (+2.4%), Gerdau (+2.1%) and PetroRio (+2%).
Comment:
Asian Stocks Mostly Rise on Easing US Inflation
Asian equity markets mostly rose on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street overnight as data showing US producer prices rose less than expected in June bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The US central bank is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points in July, while traders scaled back bets of further rate increases this year. Meanwhile, Singapore’s economy grew 0.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, avoiding a technical recession. The S&P/ASX 200, Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indexes advanced, while the Topix and Shenzhen Component indexes declined.
Asian equity markets mostly rose on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street overnight as data showing US producer prices rose less than expected in June bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The US central bank is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points in July, while traders scaled back bets of further rate increases this year. Meanwhile, Singapore’s economy grew 0.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, avoiding a technical recession. The S&P/ASX 200, Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indexes advanced, while the Topix and Shenzhen Component indexes declined.
Comment:
The greenback is approaching a make-or-break moment — at least as far as a closely watched technical indicator is concerned.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index has now surrendered more than 61.8% of its gains since May 2021, bringing it to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels popular among chart watchers. They tend to keep a close eye on these indicators to determine whether or not trends will extend or reverse.
What happens next is therefore crucial.
If the index remains below this point over the coming sessions, it would be a strong signal to traders that the currency’s losses are the beginning of a new longer-term downtrend, and not just an aberration.
The latest bout of weakness comes as the market now sees an end to a tightening spree that Federal Reserve officials begun communicating more than two years ago. The prospect is narrowing interest-rate differentials with other major currencies and weighing on the dollar.
This week, it dropped to the weakest level against euro and pound since early 2022. It’s even falling out of favor against the yen — where rates are still negative — with the cross falling to a two-month low.
The bearish signal seen in the chart of the Bloomberg Dollar Index could be soon validated elsewhere too. The ICE Dollar Index — a popular alternative to the BBDXY — stands just 0.6% higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a rally that kicked off in January 2021.
To be sure, options paint a more mixed picture. While long-term bets are supportive of the US currency’s prospects, sentiment over a one-month sentiment has reached its least bullish level since September 2020.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index has now surrendered more than 61.8% of its gains since May 2021, bringing it to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels popular among chart watchers. They tend to keep a close eye on these indicators to determine whether or not trends will extend or reverse.
What happens next is therefore crucial.
If the index remains below this point over the coming sessions, it would be a strong signal to traders that the currency’s losses are the beginning of a new longer-term downtrend, and not just an aberration.
The latest bout of weakness comes as the market now sees an end to a tightening spree that Federal Reserve officials begun communicating more than two years ago. The prospect is narrowing interest-rate differentials with other major currencies and weighing on the dollar.
This week, it dropped to the weakest level against euro and pound since early 2022. It’s even falling out of favor against the yen — where rates are still negative — with the cross falling to a two-month low.
The bearish signal seen in the chart of the Bloomberg Dollar Index could be soon validated elsewhere too. The ICE Dollar Index — a popular alternative to the BBDXY — stands just 0.6% higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a rally that kicked off in January 2021.
To be sure, options paint a more mixed picture. While long-term bets are supportive of the US currency’s prospects, sentiment over a one-month sentiment has reached its least bullish level since September 2020.
Comment:
USDJPY BULLISH WILL Go to 180 Yen
LONG
the Bank of Japan is unlikely to increase its ultra-loose policy rate until Governor Kuroda's term expires in the first quarter of 2023.
A break below 124is the start of bearish trend.
Technical: BULLISH
STRATEGY
BUY THE CORRECTION
Higher Highs
Higher Lows
Fundamentals:
See my previouse USDJPY trade ideas.All Tades are active, and a lot of fundamental explanations of USDJPY. Read them.Undestand them,then you can mae good trades.
Crude Oil Bearish Iran’s Growing Oil Production Boosting Up
SHORT
34minute Chart found its suppot . The corection was expected, as Japan Industrial Output Falls More than Initially Anticipated
BITCOIN WILL RISE HIGHER
LONG
GOLD STRONG BUY
Nasdaq100 US100 Bullish 21000 on Radar
LONG
EUR/USD re-targets 1.1000 post US-CPI
LONG
GBPUSD Bullish on Hot UK Inflation
LONG
XRP LONG 0.75$ and 1.15$ are on the Radar
LONG
GBPUSD Long Buyers to retain control
LONG
Litecoin Targeting Weekly Resistance
LONG
EUR/JPY Long A Break above creates more Buy Pressure
LONG
USDCHF BEARISH Meets monthly Low and Support
SHORT
LONG
the Bank of Japan is unlikely to increase its ultra-loose policy rate until Governor Kuroda's term expires in the first quarter of 2023.
A break below 124is the start of bearish trend.
Technical: BULLISH
STRATEGY
BUY THE CORRECTION
Higher Highs
Higher Lows
Fundamentals:
See my previouse USDJPY trade ideas.All Tades are active, and a lot of fundamental explanations of USDJPY. Read them.Undestand them,then you can mae good trades.
Crude Oil Bearish Iran’s Growing Oil Production Boosting Up
SHORT
34minute Chart found its suppot . The corection was expected, as Japan Industrial Output Falls More than Initially Anticipated
BITCOIN WILL RISE HIGHER
LONG
GOLD STRONG BUY
Nasdaq100 US100 Bullish 21000 on Radar
LONG
EUR/USD re-targets 1.1000 post US-CPI
LONG
GBPUSD Bullish on Hot UK Inflation
LONG
XRP LONG 0.75$ and 1.15$ are on the Radar
LONG
GBPUSD Long Buyers to retain control
LONG
Litecoin Targeting Weekly Resistance
LONG
EUR/JPY Long A Break above creates more Buy Pressure
LONG
USDCHF BEARISH Meets monthly Low and Support
SHORT
Comment:
Week Ahead - July 17th
Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.
Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.
Comment:
Bitcoin long will Go highe after Profit Taking
LONG
LONG
Comment:
Bond Yields Continue to Fall
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.
Comment:
This trade is stil open and active
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
Comment:
trade is open
Comment:
trade is open
Comment:
trade is open
Comment:
Update:
Bitcoin price today is $ 29,922 with a 24-hour trading volume of $ 34.18B, market cap of $ 581.50B, and market dominance of 48.04%. The BTC price increased 0.25% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin reached its highest price on Nov 10, 2021 when it was trading at its all-time high of $ 68,770, while Bitcoin's lowest price was recorded on Jul 17, 2010 when it was trading at its all-time low of $ 0.050000. The lowest price since it's ATH was $ 15,599 (cycle low). The highest BTC price since the last cycle low was $ 31,804 (cycle high). The Bitcoin price prediction sentiment is currently bullish
Based on technical indicators, Bitcoin's 200-day SMA will rise in the next month and will hit $ 27,429 by Aug 22, 2023. Bitcoin's short-term 50-Day SMA is estimated to hit $ 32,209 by Aug 22, 2023.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum oscillator is a popular indicator that signals whether a cryptocurrency is oversold (below 30) or overbought (above 70). Currently, the RSI value is at 49.30, which indicates that the BTC market is in a neutral position.
Bitcoin price today is $ 29,922 with a 24-hour trading volume of $ 34.18B, market cap of $ 581.50B, and market dominance of 48.04%. The BTC price increased 0.25% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin reached its highest price on Nov 10, 2021 when it was trading at its all-time high of $ 68,770, while Bitcoin's lowest price was recorded on Jul 17, 2010 when it was trading at its all-time low of $ 0.050000. The lowest price since it's ATH was $ 15,599 (cycle low). The highest BTC price since the last cycle low was $ 31,804 (cycle high). The Bitcoin price prediction sentiment is currently bullish
Based on technical indicators, Bitcoin's 200-day SMA will rise in the next month and will hit $ 27,429 by Aug 22, 2023. Bitcoin's short-term 50-Day SMA is estimated to hit $ 32,209 by Aug 22, 2023.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum oscillator is a popular indicator that signals whether a cryptocurrency is oversold (below 30) or overbought (above 70). Currently, the RSI value is at 49.30, which indicates that the BTC market is in a neutral position.
Comment:
Bitcoin hits highest level since May 2022 to kick off December
Comment:
Bullish BUY
JOLTS Falling job openings could confirm US labor market is losing steam ISM up
JOLTS Falling job openings could confirm US labor market is losing steam ISM up
Comment:
bullish
US Trade Balance down, Dollar down, shares up, BTC bullish, Profit Target 1 16200
US Trade Balance down, Dollar down, shares up, BTC bullish, Profit Target 1 16200
Comment:
US100
Bullish
CRUDE OIL strong bearish...Further Signals below...
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change far below expectations 103K ,Forecast was 131. The US economy is slowing down, ,good for NQ, as Inflation forecasting down now.Interest rates sentiment is increasing.Bullish sentiment is now above 74% Bearih sentiment below 18.75. NQ COT report(lat Friday shows commercials start to buy NQ). Posible FED Fund cut early next year,Feb/Mach 2024.
Further signals: Crude Oil WTI,.... Bearih short, Gold Bullish, BTCUSD Bullish, EURUSD Bullih, GBPUD BULLISH, USDJPY bearih, EURJPY bearish, GBPJPY bearih, DAX40(Germany40) bullish, EU50 bullih, Dow Jones Bullish; US Dollar down bearish, RTY bullish, Coffee Arabica Bullish, Palladium Bearish, Platinum bullish, Ethereum UD Bullish
US100
Bullish CRUDE OIL strong bearish...Further Signals below...
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change far below expectations 103K ,Forecast was 131. The US economy is slowing down, ,good for NQ, as Inflation forecasting down now.Interest rates sentiment is increasing.Bullish sentiment is now above 74% Bearih sentiment below 18.75. NQ COT report(lat Friday shows commercials start to buy NQ). Posible FED Fund cut early next year,Feb/Mach 2024.
Further signals: Crude Oil WTI,.... Bearih short, Gold Bullish, BTCUSD Bullish, EURUSD Bullih, GBPUD BULLISH, USDJPY bearih, EURJPY bearish, GBPJPY bearih, DAX40(Germany40) bullish, EU50 bullih, Dow Jones Bullish; US Dollar down bearish, RTY bullish, Coffee Arabica Bullish, Palladium Bearish, Platinum bullish, Ethereum UD Bullish
Comment:
US100
Strong bullih now 245min. TF beginning to pump
16050, 16182,16200,16250 next If breaing that level we will see soon ALL TIME High of Nadaq 2021. 16775 after that, and then 17000 ..not necesarily today, as tomorrow and on Friday further Inflation data. the Bias is bullish.. but at the end of this week or until the end of 2023..(unles the economy continues to cool down). Other catalysts lie sudden middle east war, could stop the bullish trend and revere it..But currently Israel starts the diplomatic talks, thats good for U shares and Nasdaq
US100
Strong bullih now 245min. TF beginning to pump 16050, 16182,16200,16250 next If breaing that level we will see soon ALL TIME High of Nadaq 2021. 16775 after that, and then 17000 ..not necesarily today, as tomorrow and on Friday further Inflation data. the Bias is bullish.. but at the end of this week or until the end of 2023..(unles the economy continues to cool down). Other catalysts lie sudden middle east war, could stop the bullish trend and revere it..But currently Israel starts the diplomatic talks, thats good for U shares and Nasdaq
Comment:
trend up, but short ratio increassing
US100
bullish
But dont buy yet.WAIT!!! The uptrend will revere again.
Unemployment Claims unchanged, but Job cuts increase, Inflation down. currently 30 min. trend is down, wait to change the 30 min. trend bullish, and then buy the weekly support at 15747-15800. Today is no trend day, meaning we buy, and set profit targets. Bonds high,but US Dollar down, We posibly go down to upport and sideways, as the market waiting for tomorrows important Non-Farm Employment Change
US100
bullish But dont buy yet.WAIT!!! The uptrend will revere again.
Unemployment Claims unchanged, but Job cuts increase, Inflation down. currently 30 min. trend is down, wait to change the 30 min. trend bullish, and then buy the weekly support at 15747-15800. Today is no trend day, meaning we buy, and set profit targets. Bonds high,but US Dollar down, We posibly go down to upport and sideways, as the market waiting for tomorrows important Non-Farm Employment Change
Comment:
TREND BULLISH (All trend Daily to 52W, 18 Trends are strongly Bullish)
Dont buy yet, wait till 5D and3D Trend change to bullish trend. All other TF Trend are bullish .If some lower TF (e.i. D,2D,3D,5D get bearish, it will be oppurtunity to take ONLY!!!! Bullih Trades.In this cae we only trade long, but set Profit targets!Once PT ha reached, we just wait for another bullish Buy trade. We avoide 100%-ly taking hort trades in this phae of the market, as the strong bullish power will retrace fast,or selling trade will end in low volatile sideways shift).
IMPORTANT US DATA ARE:
Federal Funds Rate VERY IMPORTANT FED MEETING NEXT WEDNESDAY Dec.13th 2023
Current FED rates at 5.25/5.5
Estimation no rate hikes : 97,7%
Estimation rate-cuts(easing) :2,3%
FRIDAY DATA 8th Dec: Very important
-Non-Farm Employment Change if unchanged or below etimates ,good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Unemployment Rate: If greater than forecast good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Average Hourly Earnings m/m if less than forecast, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations:If less than expected, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
Technical Bullish Signals: Gold broke above important Reistance 2084, but could not held above. Trend is bullish. My Buy signals and Long trades are active
Important bullish supports to buy again are:
15750,15658,15628,,15800,15850 above16905
Targets
16050
16125
16202
16250
16358
16407
16442
16609
16678
16723
16814
If Fundamentals change,and the sentiment starts to get bearih, and 52W Bullish Trend change to ,,Sell-Off,,We will liquidate all Bullih poitions and will immediately ell Nasdaq. Also USDollar and Bonds trend change will influence our decisions.
Dont buy yet, wait till 5D and3D Trend change to bullish trend. All other TF Trend are bullish .If some lower TF (e.i. D,2D,3D,5D get bearish, it will be oppurtunity to take ONLY!!!! Bullih Trades.In this cae we only trade long, but set Profit targets!Once PT ha reached, we just wait for another bullish Buy trade. We avoide 100%-ly taking hort trades in this phae of the market, as the strong bullish power will retrace fast,or selling trade will end in low volatile sideways shift).
IMPORTANT US DATA ARE:
Federal Funds Rate VERY IMPORTANT FED MEETING NEXT WEDNESDAY Dec.13th 2023
Current FED rates at 5.25/5.5
Estimation no rate hikes : 97,7%
Estimation rate-cuts(easing) :2,3%
FRIDAY DATA 8th Dec: Very important
-Non-Farm Employment Change if unchanged or below etimates ,good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Unemployment Rate: If greater than forecast good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Average Hourly Earnings m/m if less than forecast, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations:If less than expected, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
Technical Bullish Signals: Gold broke above important Reistance 2084, but could not held above. Trend is bullish. My Buy signals and Long trades are active
Important bullish supports to buy again are:
15750,15658,15628,,15800,15850 above16905
Targets
16050
16125
16202
16250
16358
16407
16442
16609
16678
16723
16814
If Fundamentals change,and the sentiment starts to get bearih, and 52W Bullish Trend change to ,,Sell-Off,,We will liquidate all Bullih poitions and will immediately ell Nasdaq. Also USDollar and Bonds trend change will influence our decisions.
Comment:
Strong US Job Growth Seen in November as Strikes End; Trend Slowing
Also detailled explanation of todays trading on my live stream
US100 Nasdaq Non-Farm Payroll 8th DEC 2023
www.tradingview.com/streams/k4EtkecpNk/
Inter- and Intra market divergence.... Mixed data(so we are waiting to catch the bet potential price. Patience is key.
U.S. job growth likely picked up in November as thousands of automobile workers and actors returned after strikes, but the underlying trend will probably point to a cooling labor market.
Also detailled explanation of todays trading on my live stream
US100 Nasdaq Non-Farm Payroll 8th DEC 2023
www.tradingview.com/streams/k4EtkecpNk/
Inter- and Intra market divergence.... Mixed data(so we are waiting to catch the bet potential price. Patience is key.
U.S. job growth likely picked up in November as thousands of automobile workers and actors returned after strikes, but the underlying trend will probably point to a cooling labor market.
Comment:
Strong Bullish
FOMC MEETING
on 13th Dec 2023
99% Probability of ,,NO RATE HIKE,,
That is boosting Gold, Shares and Nasdaq
Current US Dollar recovery is caused by Profit Taking
Bitcon profit taking phase
FOMC MEETING
on 13th Dec 2023
99% Probability of ,,NO RATE HIKE,,
That is boosting Gold, Shares and Nasdaq
Current US Dollar recovery is caused by Profit Taking
Bitcon profit taking phase
Comment:
Long Term Bullish
Short Term Trend Bearish
signal 42666
41444
First Potential support 31108 37532 36828 36816
Short Term Trend Bearish
signal 42666
41444
First Potential support 31108 37532 36828 36816
Comment:
FED FUNDS RATES UNCHANGED
bullish
we added positions
bullish
we added positions
Comment:
Comment:
I am BULLISH strongly on this pair now, and will update if, based on my trading systems, trend reversals, position reducing, take profits, or trend change happens
Comment:
Fed Pivot Toward Interest Rate Cuts in 2024 and Gold’s Bullish Response
The Federal Reserve concluded its last FOMC meeting of the year, and as expected, they kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged.
Seventeen voting members are all predicting interest rate cuts next year, with five officials projecting a decrease of ¾%, five officials anticipating a larger rate cut than ¾%, and the remaining two voting members anticipating no rate cuts next year. According to their economic projections, the Fed believes core inflation will peak at 2.4% next year, which is lower than its projections in September of 2.6%.
The Federal Reserve is also projecting inflation will cool to 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Their projections anticipate unemployment rising to 4.1% in 2024 and remaining at that level through 2026. The Fed also anticipates an economic deceleration forecasting growth at 1.4% next year, and rising to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026
The Federal Reserve concluded its last FOMC meeting of the year, and as expected, they kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged.
Seventeen voting members are all predicting interest rate cuts next year, with five officials projecting a decrease of ¾%, five officials anticipating a larger rate cut than ¾%, and the remaining two voting members anticipating no rate cuts next year. According to their economic projections, the Fed believes core inflation will peak at 2.4% next year, which is lower than its projections in September of 2.6%.
The Federal Reserve is also projecting inflation will cool to 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Their projections anticipate unemployment rising to 4.1% in 2024 and remaining at that level through 2026. The Fed also anticipates an economic deceleration forecasting growth at 1.4% next year, and rising to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026
Comment:
Treasury yields hit lowest since August, fueling market optimism
U.S. stock futures climb as Fed hints at 2024 rate cuts; Dow hits all-time high.
Fed Open Market Committee keeps rates steady; markets react positively to dovish outlook.
Post-Fed, Treasury yields drop to lowest since August, signaling economic optimism.
U.S. stock futures experienced a significant uplift Wednesday night, following the Federal Reserve’s indication of possible rate cuts in 2024.
US DOLLAR DOWN YIELDS DOWN ASSETS vs Dollar UP
Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Signal
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, aligning with market expectations. However, the revelation of potential rate cuts in 2024 spurred a positive shift in market sentiment. The Fed’s decision, signifying the potential end of a cycle that included 11 rate hikes, has been viewed as a pivot towards a softer monetary policy approach
Impact on Treasury Yields
The Fed’s announcement influenced Treasury yields, with the 10-year note hitting its lowest since August. The dovish outlook implies further cuts through 2025 and 2026, potentially lowering the fed funds rate to 2%-2.25%. This forecast aligns with a brighter inflation outlook, as indicated by recent consumer and wholesale price data
Solar Stocks Respond Positively
The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) saw a significant increase, with constituent stocks like Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Technologies, and Sunrun recording notable gains. This uptrend reflects the solar industry’s sensitivity to interest rates, as lower rates could reduce financing costs and improve valuations.
U.S. stock futures climb as Fed hints at 2024 rate cuts; Dow hits all-time high.
Fed Open Market Committee keeps rates steady; markets react positively to dovish outlook.
Post-Fed, Treasury yields drop to lowest since August, signaling economic optimism.
U.S. stock futures experienced a significant uplift Wednesday night, following the Federal Reserve’s indication of possible rate cuts in 2024.
US DOLLAR DOWN YIELDS DOWN ASSETS vs Dollar UP
Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Signal
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, aligning with market expectations. However, the revelation of potential rate cuts in 2024 spurred a positive shift in market sentiment. The Fed’s decision, signifying the potential end of a cycle that included 11 rate hikes, has been viewed as a pivot towards a softer monetary policy approach
Impact on Treasury Yields
The Fed’s announcement influenced Treasury yields, with the 10-year note hitting its lowest since August. The dovish outlook implies further cuts through 2025 and 2026, potentially lowering the fed funds rate to 2%-2.25%. This forecast aligns with a brighter inflation outlook, as indicated by recent consumer and wholesale price data
Solar Stocks Respond Positively
The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) saw a significant increase, with constituent stocks like Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Technologies, and Sunrun recording notable gains. This uptrend reflects the solar industry’s sensitivity to interest rates, as lower rates could reduce financing costs and improve valuations.
Comment:
Short term trend short. I hedged my longs now at 40860, and am expecting 32933
In case the hort trend change, I will excute the hedge
In case the hort trend change, I will excute the hedge
Comment:
Took profit my short hedgeat42738
Long again 42736
Long again 42736
Comment:
STILL LONG
TARGET 48236
TARGET 48236
Comment:
The January launch of a bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) is expected to face subdued demand initially, which could lead to a 'sell the news' scenario, Singapore-based QCP Capital wrote in a recent note. This could result in short-term volatility for bitcoin, which will shift the focus towards ether .
"It is likely that the actual demand for the bitcoin spot ETF at the start will fall short of market expectations," QCP wrote. "We expect topside resistance for bitcoin in the $45k-$48.5k region and a possible retracement to 36k levels before the uptrend resumes."
Bitcoin is currently trading above $43,700 during Asia business hours, up 2% on-day.
QCP writes that ether is seen as a potential secondary investment option with an anticipated market shift from bitcoin, and speculative interest in a forthcoming ether spot ETF could drive ether prices higher, even before the ETF's actual launch.
"Ether might also be an interesting laggard play here," they wrote. "This kind of headline excitement could create some speculative uplift for ETH price whether it is warranted or not."
CoinDesk reported that BlackRock (BLK), Nasdaq (NDAQ), and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) held their second meeting in a month to discuss rule changes for listing the bitcoin ETF, with BlackRock modifying its proposal to include cash redemptions, aligning with SEC preferences.
Grayscale also recently had a second meeting with the SEC.
Bitcoin is up 17% in the last month, according to CoinDesk Indicies data, as anticipation builds around the ETF.
"It is likely that the actual demand for the bitcoin spot ETF at the start will fall short of market expectations," QCP wrote. "We expect topside resistance for bitcoin in the $45k-$48.5k region and a possible retracement to 36k levels before the uptrend resumes."
Bitcoin is currently trading above $43,700 during Asia business hours, up 2% on-day.
QCP writes that ether is seen as a potential secondary investment option with an anticipated market shift from bitcoin, and speculative interest in a forthcoming ether spot ETF could drive ether prices higher, even before the ETF's actual launch.
"Ether might also be an interesting laggard play here," they wrote. "This kind of headline excitement could create some speculative uplift for ETH price whether it is warranted or not."
CoinDesk reported that BlackRock (BLK), Nasdaq (NDAQ), and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) held their second meeting in a month to discuss rule changes for listing the bitcoin ETF, with BlackRock modifying its proposal to include cash redemptions, aligning with SEC preferences.
Grayscale also recently had a second meeting with the SEC.
Bitcoin is up 17% in the last month, according to CoinDesk Indicies data, as anticipation builds around the ETF.
Comment:
Bitcoin - a break above $44.7k brings $48.2k resistance into play.
Solana – outperformance continues
The multi-week Bitcoin rally remains intact and is pushing the largest cryptocurrency by market cap to levels last seen in April last year. The spot Bitcoin narrative remains the main driver of positive sentiment, while the technical Bitcoin halving event, expected in mid-April, is supporting the push higher. A decision by the SEC on multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications is expected by early January and a positive decision is currently seen as the most likely outcome. Bitcoin traders are actively watching any SEC announcement at the moment and, it seems, buying Bitcoin ahead of the decision.
The technical outlook for BTC/USD is positive with the weekly chart showing a bullish flag formation being formed, while a bullish 50-day/200-day gold-cross is close to being made. The CCI indicator shows BTC/USD as overbought, suggesting a period of consolidation before any move higher. On the weekly chart there is little in the way of resistance ahead of $48.2k. Support is seen at $40k and a fraction under $38k.
Solana – outperformance continues
The multi-week Bitcoin rally remains intact and is pushing the largest cryptocurrency by market cap to levels last seen in April last year. The spot Bitcoin narrative remains the main driver of positive sentiment, while the technical Bitcoin halving event, expected in mid-April, is supporting the push higher. A decision by the SEC on multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications is expected by early January and a positive decision is currently seen as the most likely outcome. Bitcoin traders are actively watching any SEC announcement at the moment and, it seems, buying Bitcoin ahead of the decision.
The technical outlook for BTC/USD is positive with the weekly chart showing a bullish flag formation being formed, while a bullish 50-day/200-day gold-cross is close to being made. The CCI indicator shows BTC/USD as overbought, suggesting a period of consolidation before any move higher. On the weekly chart there is little in the way of resistance ahead of $48.2k. Support is seen at $40k and a fraction under $38k.
Comment:
Bitcoin climbs above $45,000 for first time since April 2022
Bitcoin touched a 21-month peak of $45,488, having gained 154% last year in the strongest performance since 2020. It was last up 2.6% at $45,344 but remains far off the record high of $69,000 it touched in November 2021.
Ether, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, was 1% higher at $2,376 on Tuesday.
Investor focus has been squarely on whether the U.S. securities regulator will soon approve a spot bitcoin ETF, which would throw open the bitcoin market to millions more investors.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected multiple applications to launch spot bitcoin ETFs in recent years, arguing that the cryptocurrency market is vulnerable to manipulation.
In recent months, however, there have been increasing signs that regulators are prepared to sign off on at least some of the 13 proposed spot bitcoin ETFs, with expectations that the decision will likely come in early January.
Rising bets that major central banks will cut interest rates this year has also been a boon for cryptocurrencies, helping shake off the gloom that had settled over crypto markets following the collapse of FTX and other crypto-business failures in 2022.
Bitcoin touched a 21-month peak of $45,488, having gained 154% last year in the strongest performance since 2020. It was last up 2.6% at $45,344 but remains far off the record high of $69,000 it touched in November 2021.
Ether, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, was 1% higher at $2,376 on Tuesday.
Investor focus has been squarely on whether the U.S. securities regulator will soon approve a spot bitcoin ETF, which would throw open the bitcoin market to millions more investors.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected multiple applications to launch spot bitcoin ETFs in recent years, arguing that the cryptocurrency market is vulnerable to manipulation.
In recent months, however, there have been increasing signs that regulators are prepared to sign off on at least some of the 13 proposed spot bitcoin ETFs, with expectations that the decision will likely come in early January.
Rising bets that major central banks will cut interest rates this year has also been a boon for cryptocurrencies, helping shake off the gloom that had settled over crypto markets following the collapse of FTX and other crypto-business failures in 2022.
Comment:
Daily Global Market Update
The Euro-Dollar pair experienced a slight decline in the last session, dropping by 0.2%. The Stochastic RSI indicates that we are currently in an oversold market condition.
Dollar-Yen Pair's Gains
The Dollar-Yen pair saw an increase of 0.7% in the last session. The RSI is currently giving a positive signal, suggesting potential continued upward movement.
Gold's Decline
Gold fell by 0.8% against the dollar in the last trading session. The CCI is currently giving a negative signal, hinting at a potential continued downtrend.
Global Financial Headlines
The US dollar has risen, bolstered by high US Treasury yields and a cautious market sentiment affecting Wall Street. Traders are now awaiting further economic data. Job openings in the US saw a decrease to their lowest level since March 2021, indicating a cooling job market. European markets have also experienced a sharp decline, with various sectors showing mixed performances.
Upcoming Economic Highlights
Key economic events to watch out for include the US ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, among others. These data points are crucial for investors and traders to watch as they provide insights into the economic health of these countries.
US ADP Employment Change - 1315 GMT
US Initial Jobless Claims - 1330 GMT
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices - 1300 hours GMT
Spain's 30y Bond Auction - 0940 GMT
Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 0030 GMT
Japan's Monetary Base - 2350 GMT
The Euro-Dollar pair experienced a slight decline in the last session, dropping by 0.2%. The Stochastic RSI indicates that we are currently in an oversold market condition.
Dollar-Yen Pair's Gains
The Dollar-Yen pair saw an increase of 0.7% in the last session. The RSI is currently giving a positive signal, suggesting potential continued upward movement.
Gold's Decline
Gold fell by 0.8% against the dollar in the last trading session. The CCI is currently giving a negative signal, hinting at a potential continued downtrend.
Global Financial Headlines
The US dollar has risen, bolstered by high US Treasury yields and a cautious market sentiment affecting Wall Street. Traders are now awaiting further economic data. Job openings in the US saw a decrease to their lowest level since March 2021, indicating a cooling job market. European markets have also experienced a sharp decline, with various sectors showing mixed performances.
Upcoming Economic Highlights
Key economic events to watch out for include the US ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, among others. These data points are crucial for investors and traders to watch as they provide insights into the economic health of these countries.
US ADP Employment Change - 1315 GMT
US Initial Jobless Claims - 1330 GMT
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices - 1300 hours GMT
Spain's 30y Bond Auction - 0940 GMT
Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 0030 GMT
Japan's Monetary Base - 2350 GMT
Comment:
Added Longs @43899
BTC going to beak High of Friday, possible resistance high of thurseday last week ,if breaking 45425
BTC going to beak High of Friday, possible resistance high of thurseday last week ,if breaking 45425
Comment:
ok. now I added morelongs, at 44132.This trade is no recommandation or advise.
Use always stops.(My targets to react (Not Profit taking)) are the same 44661, and if that break breaks, 45441.
Use always stops.(My targets to react (Not Profit taking)) are the same 44661, and if that break breaks, 45441.
Comment:
still bullish
no more adds. Waiting for new signals
no more adds. Waiting for new signals
Comment:
higher highs hiher lows, trend bullish
US stocks closed with marginal gains on a shortened Monday session, setting the stage for caution in the second half of the year as markets continued to assess the economy’s resilience to further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. The Dow added 10 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq edged 0.1% and 0.2% higher, respectively. Shares from rate-sensitive sectors edged lower after ISM PMI data showed that US manufacturing contracted more than expected for an eighth consecutive month in June, reigniting concerns that restrictive borrowing costs will hamper economic activity to a large extent. Apple closed 1% down to set the pace for tech giants, pressured by news that the company cut production forecasts for the mixed-reality Vision Pro headset. On the other hand, Tesla rallied 6% as the company beat deliveries and production estimates for Q2. Stock exchanges in the US will be closed on Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.