Just a what-if. BTC would dump down to ~11k and will not get a new ATH within the next years but keep staying above 11k and below 28k for a while.
I don't think this will happen but is not impossible. I would expect it to go down then even more if there is no new ATH after the next halving. In my opinion there is not much which can give BTC a real future. Everything has a end.
1. The best usecase for now and for a long time is just transfering values from one to another country without banks involved. This can better archived with future official stable coins. The question is which networks they will support. But even other stable coins and networks today can do that job better
2. The BTC network is too centralized. The "wealth" also is very limited to just a few adresses.
3. The only reason why it is high valued is because of the belief of the hodlers that the value will keep rising forever and that the 0.5% top adresses which hold ~90% of the coins make the coins in real circulation rare. Like with most crypto currencies there is just dead "money".
4. There is nothing which can't also archived with other decentraliced networks. Some are even better in case of energy consumption, decentralisation and features. But the most of them have a tendency to centralize the wealth and therefore the power too.
In my opinion BTC is the Altavista and ETH is the Yahoo of the public blockchain network era. Btw. metaverses are IMO the blockchain GeoCities. I don't know if we have seen the "last" big network, maybe it is not out there yet. But maybe it is just flying under the radar. But I don't think that this job can be done by any PoS or PoW network.
One last word about the most wealthy adresses: The Top 10 adresses, without exchanges, own 523,649 BTC today. The fresh mined BTC per year is now 320,400 and will be 160,200 starting in 2024. If they would start selling, they can double the new (mined) supply until 2024 for more than 1,6 years and starting with 2024 for more than 3,2 years. Just sain, that's a lot of power for just 6 addresses. Btw. this is also true for the Binance and Bitfinix adresses at the Top 10 (600,578 BTC in total). This power will double every 4 years.
I don't think this will happen but is not impossible. I would expect it to go down then even more if there is no new ATH after the next halving. In my opinion there is not much which can give BTC a real future. Everything has a end.
1. The best usecase for now and for a long time is just transfering values from one to another country without banks involved. This can better archived with future official stable coins. The question is which networks they will support. But even other stable coins and networks today can do that job better
2. The BTC network is too centralized. The "wealth" also is very limited to just a few adresses.
3. The only reason why it is high valued is because of the belief of the hodlers that the value will keep rising forever and that the 0.5% top adresses which hold ~90% of the coins make the coins in real circulation rare. Like with most crypto currencies there is just dead "money".
4. There is nothing which can't also archived with other decentraliced networks. Some are even better in case of energy consumption, decentralisation and features. But the most of them have a tendency to centralize the wealth and therefore the power too.
In my opinion BTC is the Altavista and ETH is the Yahoo of the public blockchain network era. Btw. metaverses are IMO the blockchain GeoCities. I don't know if we have seen the "last" big network, maybe it is not out there yet. But maybe it is just flying under the radar. But I don't think that this job can be done by any PoS or PoW network.
One last word about the most wealthy adresses: The Top 10 adresses, without exchanges, own 523,649 BTC today. The fresh mined BTC per year is now 320,400 and will be 160,200 starting in 2024. If they would start selling, they can double the new (mined) supply until 2024 for more than 1,6 years and starting with 2024 for more than 3,2 years. Just sain, that's a lot of power for just 6 addresses. Btw. this is also true for the Binance and Bitfinix adresses at the Top 10 (600,578 BTC in total). This power will double every 4 years.
Comment:
The SPX chart is in there by accident. Can't remove it, and I'm shure I did it before publishing. ^^