PERFECT Bitcoin Elliott Wave's! Wave 1 COMPLETE! Detailed Count!
Hey guys! First of all, I want to start this by saying the bear market is over. Congrats to all who survived! In this post I am going to go into detail on the Elliott Wave count of Bitcoin, where we are, and where we are going.
If you are unfamiliar with Elliott Waves. Well, they call it the Elliott Wave Theory. Hence, a THEORY. It has specific rules, and many times on TradingView there will be users posting Elliott Wave counts that violate the laws or rules of the Elliott Wave Theory. In this post, I believe all laws and rules of the Elliott Wave Theory have been followed, and I am open to criticism to anyone who argue my count. However, I'm confident my count is correct.
Since Bitcoin bottomed out back in December of 2018, we started a 5-wave sequence upward, with standard corrections along the way. Technically, it is perfect:
We can also see that the height of this WAVE 1 structure EXCEEDED the height of the B LEG in our 2018 correction. This is technical perfection of a WAVE 1, exceeding the height of the B LEG from the 2018 correction and follows the rules of the Elliott Wave Theory:
In Elliott Waves, once a 1-2-3-4-5 wave has been completed, we perform an A-B-C correction back to the bottom of Wave 4. This would mean that Bitcoin is going to make a correction from here to around $7,700-$8,300:
After the completion of this correction, Bitcoin will start to go on a rampaging tear in full bull mode, taking us to $70,000-$80,000:
Now, there is something to pay very close attention to. Because, there is a big looming question out there...
WHAT ABOUT ALT COINS?!?!?!?!
Oh, those poor alt coins are just bleeding, aren't they? Well, there is a glimmer of hope for the alt coins. And there is a specific spot in the chart that tells us when the last major alt coin rally happened. And, it's right here:
The last time Bitcoin completed this Elliott Wave structure, this is the exact location that the alt coins went on a tear. Bitcoin breaks above the previous bull market high, and alt coins start going out of control bullish.
The last time, Bitcoin broke the previous high, and got rejected just above the high. Even then, alt coins still kept on ripping upward. Bitcoin recovered, and then really started to set new records. I expect the same.
So, where is Bitcoin going? Well, it's anyone's best guess. But here's mine...
$300,000:
And with that, I present to you, the big picture:
I wish you all the best of luck. Always remember, I am just a technical analyst. I have no control of what the markets really do. So, if you make a decision based on my analysis, it's your decision. I'm not telling you to do it, I'm just giving my thoughts. And my intention is to help you. (Not be responsible for you)
;)
Good luck! Here's to a great 2019!!!!!
If you are unfamiliar with Elliott Waves. Well, they call it the Elliott Wave Theory. Hence, a THEORY. It has specific rules, and many times on TradingView there will be users posting Elliott Wave counts that violate the laws or rules of the Elliott Wave Theory. In this post, I believe all laws and rules of the Elliott Wave Theory have been followed, and I am open to criticism to anyone who argue my count. However, I'm confident my count is correct.
Since Bitcoin bottomed out back in December of 2018, we started a 5-wave sequence upward, with standard corrections along the way. Technically, it is perfect:
We can also see that the height of this WAVE 1 structure EXCEEDED the height of the B LEG in our 2018 correction. This is technical perfection of a WAVE 1, exceeding the height of the B LEG from the 2018 correction and follows the rules of the Elliott Wave Theory:
In Elliott Waves, once a 1-2-3-4-5 wave has been completed, we perform an A-B-C correction back to the bottom of Wave 4. This would mean that Bitcoin is going to make a correction from here to around $7,700-$8,300:
After the completion of this correction, Bitcoin will start to go on a rampaging tear in full bull mode, taking us to $70,000-$80,000:
Now, there is something to pay very close attention to. Because, there is a big looming question out there...
WHAT ABOUT ALT COINS?!?!?!?!
Oh, those poor alt coins are just bleeding, aren't they? Well, there is a glimmer of hope for the alt coins. And there is a specific spot in the chart that tells us when the last major alt coin rally happened. And, it's right here:
The last time Bitcoin completed this Elliott Wave structure, this is the exact location that the alt coins went on a tear. Bitcoin breaks above the previous bull market high, and alt coins start going out of control bullish.
The last time, Bitcoin broke the previous high, and got rejected just above the high. Even then, alt coins still kept on ripping upward. Bitcoin recovered, and then really started to set new records. I expect the same.
So, where is Bitcoin going? Well, it's anyone's best guess. But here's mine...
$300,000:
And with that, I present to you, the big picture:
I wish you all the best of luck. Always remember, I am just a technical analyst. I have no control of what the markets really do. So, if you make a decision based on my analysis, it's your decision. I'm not telling you to do it, I'm just giving my thoughts. And my intention is to help you. (Not be responsible for you)
;)
Good luck! Here's to a great 2019!!!!!
Comment:
The bottom of Wave C could be as high as $9,300. The original projection has it at $7,700. So, keep an eye on it.
Trade active:
B Leg complete at $12,700. Time for C Leg to ~$8200.
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(Stop if breaks above $13,050)
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My main idea right now is that Bitcoin is falling to mid-low $8k's. I still believe that. But, I always like to have a backup plan. And, if for some reason BTC keeps pushing higher, this is what I'm looking at. Red is what I believe will happen. Green is alternative scenario that I'm mindful of:
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The circled red part usually indicates that a bounce won't even happen, it could just head straight down to target. Not sure. We'll see.
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How I see the rest of July playing out:
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If you sold between $12,700-$13,000, you can risk manage some here. We are on top of the 50-Day Moving Average. You can long this, just place a stop-loss below.
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Regarding previous update:
If we do break below that, I expect a lot of stop-losses to be triggered, and panic selling to set in, taking us to our $8500 target.
If we do break below that, I expect a lot of stop-losses to be triggered, and panic selling to set in, taking us to our $8500 target.
Comment:
We are at $9600. Shorts need to start closing at $8700. Prepare going long $8250-$8550.
Comment:
Bottom appears to be in for total market cap. So, Bitcoin bottom could be in as well. Or, Bitcoin is still going to $8,250, and money is going to flow into alts, keeping the total market cap afloat.
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Total market cap is also on 100-day moving average, which is what we are targeting for bitcoin as well.
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TOTAL market cap is fighting against 50-day. If we get a convincing break above that, the correction is likely over.
While we didn’t reach as deep down as expected, I did mention in an earlier comment that the bottom could be as high as $9,200.
We are still not in the clear. $8200 is still possible. But, if the total market cap breaks the 50 day with conviction, then the correction is likely over.
While we didn’t reach as deep down as expected, I did mention in an earlier comment that the bottom could be as high as $9,200.
We are still not in the clear. $8200 is still possible. But, if the total market cap breaks the 50 day with conviction, then the correction is likely over.
Comment:
I have been building long positions on various cryptocurrencies over the past 24-hours. There is no guarantee this will go any lower. It absolutely could. But, I'm back to accumulating again.
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I am buying this dip.
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On June 28th I posted in here that the bottom of leg C could be as high as $9300. It could be as low as $7700. I am buying because my analysis is telling me that it is here. Buy at your own risk. I’m in.
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I believe we are only 24-48 hours away from a very big surge in the alt/btc market.
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Comment:
BTC is in a pretty situation here that doesn't provide clear direction. In most cases, this is a reversal structure.
We broke out of the channel, touched the .786 retrace, and then broke back into the channel. A classic "bull trap". Shorts set their stops above the channel. People who wanted to buy the breakout of the channel set their buys on the breakout of the channel. Then, it collapsed back in. After hitting perfectly on the .786 retrace.
So, unclear right now. But typically, after hitting a .786, this is the completion of the retrace.
From here, we usually range for a while. Or, we go way down. Or, we break up. So, you have to kind of decide which direction you want to choose. It's all a guessing game right now. DO we break higher? Do we fall apart and break down? This is a place for risk management, and to make a decision on what you want to do.
I would suspect a second breakout of the channel would be bullish and it would likely hold. I doubt we could break out of it a second time and just collapse back in again. However, if we don't break out of it... watch out...
We broke out of the channel, touched the .786 retrace, and then broke back into the channel. A classic "bull trap". Shorts set their stops above the channel. People who wanted to buy the breakout of the channel set their buys on the breakout of the channel. Then, it collapsed back in. After hitting perfectly on the .786 retrace.
So, unclear right now. But typically, after hitting a .786, this is the completion of the retrace.
From here, we usually range for a while. Or, we go way down. Or, we break up. So, you have to kind of decide which direction you want to choose. It's all a guessing game right now. DO we break higher? Do we fall apart and break down? This is a place for risk management, and to make a decision on what you want to do.
I would suspect a second breakout of the channel would be bullish and it would likely hold. I doubt we could break out of it a second time and just collapse back in again. However, if we don't break out of it... watch out...
Comment:
Looks like it's out of the channel. Expecting some ranging and back testing the channel again. But otherwise, things are looking very positive.
Comment:
The BTC Dominance is at it's absolute threshold. At 69% Dominance. I know it's practically a meme at this point, but watch the alt coins...
If Bitcoin goes above 70%, I am uncertain the alt coins will ever recover. However, at this point, it could mark the absolute bottom for them.
This could be the greatest buying opportunity on alt coins, in a lifetime... or, they are going to die. We will find out if Bitcoin Dominance reverses right now. If it goes above 70% on CoinMarketCap, I can't say with any reasonable analysis when the alts will reverse, if ever.
Otherwise, this is the bottom of the altcoin market, right now. Moon time.
If Bitcoin goes above 70%, I am uncertain the alt coins will ever recover. However, at this point, it could mark the absolute bottom for them.
This could be the greatest buying opportunity on alt coins, in a lifetime... or, they are going to die. We will find out if Bitcoin Dominance reverses right now. If it goes above 70% on CoinMarketCap, I can't say with any reasonable analysis when the alts will reverse, if ever.
Otherwise, this is the bottom of the altcoin market, right now. Moon time.
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C-Leg complete on chart. Bull mode time.