Bitcoin: Light at the end of the tunnel or another leg down?
Hello lovely people, and welcome to my TA about the medium-long-ish term regarding Bitcoin.
*For a TL;dr, please skip to the last 2 paragraphs*
As you can see, I have split up the previous bear market about bitcoin in roughly five sections. I used the Heikin Ashi chart to clarify these trends more, but theose trends can also ealily be found in the normal candlestick chart.
The first section is divided in three legs down. Those are more seperable in the last bear market than the one in 2014, but regarding the fact that more "maturing" markets have the tendencu to let cycles take a longer time, I think it is a good assumption to do this. Also, elliott wave patterns could be an argument to defend this point of view.
After this, a shortcorrection up started (green circeled), which, in both cases, ended up in a long wave down (orange circles). The transition between those trends looks pretty different on the first sight, but regarding the fact that the RSI hits the oversold region in both beartrends (blue circle) in a similar trend for the first time makes me believe those waves could be assumed to have some kind of relatation with one another.
Now the interesting part: after both of those cycles, a slight correction to the upside initialised, followed by the last capitulation wave. This sitiuation was started and shortly after, the 20EMA corssed the 100EMA (purple circle). Also, Bitcoin shortly came above the 100EMA, until it wasn't able to get support and started its' way down.
The sitiuation today is that the 50EMA is about to cross the 100EMA (second purple circle). Considering the fact that maturing of a market brings longer cycles, it could be an argument that those situations can be equivalent to eachother. Also, Bitcoin is still in a slight uptrend, so it might be possible to see a short break above the 200EMA before going downwards.
In conclusion, I think that bitcoin still has a final leg down to go. I will not call when and how low it will drop, but lots of relatively simple indicators show and support this statement.
Thanks for reading!
(PS: sorry for my English, not a native speaker, tips about that and my charting is always welcome)
*For a TL;dr, please skip to the last 2 paragraphs*
As you can see, I have split up the previous bear market about bitcoin in roughly five sections. I used the Heikin Ashi chart to clarify these trends more, but theose trends can also ealily be found in the normal candlestick chart.
The first section is divided in three legs down. Those are more seperable in the last bear market than the one in 2014, but regarding the fact that more "maturing" markets have the tendencu to let cycles take a longer time, I think it is a good assumption to do this. Also, elliott wave patterns could be an argument to defend this point of view.
After this, a shortcorrection up started (green circeled), which, in both cases, ended up in a long wave down (orange circles). The transition between those trends looks pretty different on the first sight, but regarding the fact that the RSI hits the oversold region in both beartrends (blue circle) in a similar trend for the first time makes me believe those waves could be assumed to have some kind of relatation with one another.
Now the interesting part: after both of those cycles, a slight correction to the upside initialised, followed by the last capitulation wave. This sitiuation was started and shortly after, the 20EMA corssed the 100EMA (purple circle). Also, Bitcoin shortly came above the 100EMA, until it wasn't able to get support and started its' way down.
The sitiuation today is that the 50EMA is about to cross the 100EMA (second purple circle). Considering the fact that maturing of a market brings longer cycles, it could be an argument that those situations can be equivalent to eachother. Also, Bitcoin is still in a slight uptrend, so it might be possible to see a short break above the 200EMA before going downwards.
In conclusion, I think that bitcoin still has a final leg down to go. I will not call when and how low it will drop, but lots of relatively simple indicators show and support this statement.
Thanks for reading!
(PS: sorry for my English, not a native speaker, tips about that and my charting is always welcome)