I am really, really new at this. Beware. The best way to learn and develop my analytical methodology is to document my successes and failures openly =)
BTC has hovered in the $9,000s and high $8,000s for a few days now with one major attempt at $10,000. It may break support or resistance in a big way within a few days. A large move is expected due to potential gaps in surrounding support and resistance areas, a large anticipated momentum for a potential break, and sentiment at this time. Two camps appear to be forming with extremes of $11k and $6k being called for by traders on TradingView (TV) and elsewhere.
Also, the whales appear to be playing their own game. This makes the predicting the direction even less predictable than normal. This is frustrating many traders on TV.
Not trading or financial advice. Be responsible with your funds. Good luck out there.
Cheers,
AetherMass
— Resulting potential trades —
Long at $9995.50
Stop (sell) at $9395.80 with loss of 6.00%
Profit (sell) at $11194.90 with gain of 12.00%
Risk reward ratio of 2.00
Short at $8396.20
Stop (buy) at $8840.40 with loss of 5.29%
Profit at (buy) $6641.30 with gain of 20.90%
Risk reward ratio of 3.95
— TRACK RECORD as of this post —
All crypto success: 3/4 or 75.00%
All crypto cumulative gain/loss: 22.01%
BTC/USD success: 0/1 or 0.00%
BTC/USD cumulative gain/loss: -1.27%
Trades pending at time of post: 1
Cancelled trades not included above: 1
— Info About My Trading Methodology —
My analysis is primarily based on past volume, support, and resistance. I only use rectangles at this time, which makes for simple charts. My current style requires being in an established, consolidation period and breaking from that consolidation in either direction. I do not care which direction the price breaks and I setup trades for both opportunities.
I do not enter into trades until support or resistance is firmly broken. The resulting trades are rather conservation and do not capture as much of the movement as other traders that attempt to predict direction. However, due to not attempting to predict direction, I think I will have a greater success rate even if the percentage gains are lower — fewer trades, fewer losses, potentially higher risk-reward ratio.
This makes for a fairly conservative trading methodology that works best on cryptocurrencies due to their sprinting/gapping behavior when crossing resistance or support. I attempt to estimate the next resistance or support to be encountered after a breakout and use that as a target for exiting trades.
Area color legend:
- Red = resistance
- Green = support
- Yellow = volume voids or price gaps
- Blue = consolidation
Colored areas above and below the current consolidation indicate past behaviors at those price levels. Support and resistance may be wrapped into consolidation areas in this part of the chart.
— Current Research —
I am a computer scientist and researcher with some expertise in machine learning, big data analysis, and statistics. I am professionalizing my trading ability at this time.
1) I am starting work on a methodology to enter and exit trades based on trade volume past a specified price level. The goal of this methodology is to prevent premature exits when stop losses are triggered by outlier price movements (candle wicks) or temporary price spikes — and to prevent premature profit taking by extending a trade depending on trade volume.
2) I intend to automate execution of my trading methodology. This will require real-time analysis for entries and exits based on the above trade volume analytic. At first, I intend to manually perform analysis with my above described methodology and automate the execution of the trades. Later, I will explore improvements to this or other methodology with machine learning (i.e. chart analysis to continually detect consolidation periods and specify trades).
BTC has hovered in the $9,000s and high $8,000s for a few days now with one major attempt at $10,000. It may break support or resistance in a big way within a few days. A large move is expected due to potential gaps in surrounding support and resistance areas, a large anticipated momentum for a potential break, and sentiment at this time. Two camps appear to be forming with extremes of $11k and $6k being called for by traders on TradingView (TV) and elsewhere.
Also, the whales appear to be playing their own game. This makes the predicting the direction even less predictable than normal. This is frustrating many traders on TV.
Not trading or financial advice. Be responsible with your funds. Good luck out there.
Cheers,
AetherMass
— Resulting potential trades —
Long at $9995.50
Stop (sell) at $9395.80 with loss of 6.00%
Profit (sell) at $11194.90 with gain of 12.00%
Risk reward ratio of 2.00
Short at $8396.20
Stop (buy) at $8840.40 with loss of 5.29%
Profit at (buy) $6641.30 with gain of 20.90%
Risk reward ratio of 3.95
— TRACK RECORD as of this post —
All crypto success: 3/4 or 75.00%
All crypto cumulative gain/loss: 22.01%
BTC/USD success: 0/1 or 0.00%
BTC/USD cumulative gain/loss: -1.27%
Trades pending at time of post: 1
Cancelled trades not included above: 1
— Info About My Trading Methodology —
My analysis is primarily based on past volume, support, and resistance. I only use rectangles at this time, which makes for simple charts. My current style requires being in an established, consolidation period and breaking from that consolidation in either direction. I do not care which direction the price breaks and I setup trades for both opportunities.
I do not enter into trades until support or resistance is firmly broken. The resulting trades are rather conservation and do not capture as much of the movement as other traders that attempt to predict direction. However, due to not attempting to predict direction, I think I will have a greater success rate even if the percentage gains are lower — fewer trades, fewer losses, potentially higher risk-reward ratio.
This makes for a fairly conservative trading methodology that works best on cryptocurrencies due to their sprinting/gapping behavior when crossing resistance or support. I attempt to estimate the next resistance or support to be encountered after a breakout and use that as a target for exiting trades.
Area color legend:
- Red = resistance
- Green = support
- Yellow = volume voids or price gaps
- Blue = consolidation
Colored areas above and below the current consolidation indicate past behaviors at those price levels. Support and resistance may be wrapped into consolidation areas in this part of the chart.
— Current Research —
I am a computer scientist and researcher with some expertise in machine learning, big data analysis, and statistics. I am professionalizing my trading ability at this time.
1) I am starting work on a methodology to enter and exit trades based on trade volume past a specified price level. The goal of this methodology is to prevent premature exits when stop losses are triggered by outlier price movements (candle wicks) or temporary price spikes — and to prevent premature profit taking by extending a trade depending on trade volume.
2) I intend to automate execution of my trading methodology. This will require real-time analysis for entries and exits based on the above trade volume analytic. At first, I intend to manually perform analysis with my above described methodology and automate the execution of the trades. Later, I will explore improvements to this or other methodology with machine learning (i.e. chart analysis to continually detect consolidation periods and specify trades).
Trade active:
Finally active. I will make an updated chart from this point.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Actually, this would have stopped out on 14 May. I'll update this entry with the stop.
Note to self: Always put the long entry above the resistance. Oops. Luckily it has not triggered.