1. I published this chart earlier as a private idea, looking for feedback from more experienced technical analysts. I've been in the cryptospace only for five months, focused on BTC because I realised that without knowing that chart in detail I would not be able to trade anything else safely.
2. I started to observe, in watching BTC live, and going back through its price history, that a seven-wave structure often plays out, both to the upside, and to the downside. It's very noticeable in crash structures. This seven-wave structure aligns more or less to the 5-wave Elliot impulse. But I find it easier to count the seven, because in my view the fifth Elliot wave can be hard to project.
3. The seven-wave structure gives a chance to project the seventh wave, because usually Wave 5 will land on either the 0.702 or 0.786 Fibonacci taken from the start of the movement.
4. Using this structural analysis, after Wednesday it became clear to me that the base for BTC currently is not in. If my wave count is right, it should come in at 21.4k, but possibly lower depending on where we position Wave 5 relative to the 0.702 and 0.786. It can also be between them.
5. Earlier, I miscounted Wave 3 as Wave 5, which put my projection for the base off by $10k. I lost a lot on that mistake. The basis of the mistake was discounting the fake-out at the end of the ABC corrective move of Wave B of the larger ABC movement.
6. BTC is currently printing, in my view, Wave 7 of the C Wave of the larger ABC movement. Within that Wave 7 of this seven-wave structure, the whole seven-wave structure plays out again. And also in the seventh of that sub-wave. At time of writing, we're in Wave 5 down of the seven waves within the seventh wave.
7. I could be wrong. Please use this chart only as a basis of comparison with your own analysis.
8. Downside targets of the C Wave are 21.4k and possibly as low as 16.9k. Neither target could be hit. The only thing that BTC can't do is go left. But in TA we should keep an open mind and be aware of all possible scenarios. What I'm seeing is consistent with the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic 1.
2. I started to observe, in watching BTC live, and going back through its price history, that a seven-wave structure often plays out, both to the upside, and to the downside. It's very noticeable in crash structures. This seven-wave structure aligns more or less to the 5-wave Elliot impulse. But I find it easier to count the seven, because in my view the fifth Elliot wave can be hard to project.
3. The seven-wave structure gives a chance to project the seventh wave, because usually Wave 5 will land on either the 0.702 or 0.786 Fibonacci taken from the start of the movement.
4. Using this structural analysis, after Wednesday it became clear to me that the base for BTC currently is not in. If my wave count is right, it should come in at 21.4k, but possibly lower depending on where we position Wave 5 relative to the 0.702 and 0.786. It can also be between them.
5. Earlier, I miscounted Wave 3 as Wave 5, which put my projection for the base off by $10k. I lost a lot on that mistake. The basis of the mistake was discounting the fake-out at the end of the ABC corrective move of Wave B of the larger ABC movement.
6. BTC is currently printing, in my view, Wave 7 of the C Wave of the larger ABC movement. Within that Wave 7 of this seven-wave structure, the whole seven-wave structure plays out again. And also in the seventh of that sub-wave. At time of writing, we're in Wave 5 down of the seven waves within the seventh wave.
7. I could be wrong. Please use this chart only as a basis of comparison with your own analysis.
8. Downside targets of the C Wave are 21.4k and possibly as low as 16.9k. Neither target could be hit. The only thing that BTC can't do is go left. But in TA we should keep an open mind and be aware of all possible scenarios. What I'm seeing is consistent with the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic 1.
AgitationZone | TA-focused cryptocurrency Discord channel discord.gg/atGcaRzz
