Hello,
i found ONE thing which makes me still kind of bearish and on the chart you can see the reason.
I compared the behaviour with 2015 which looked kind of the same as it looks now.
Then:
1. BTC made higher high in short term but did NOT break the high of the 1st january 2015.
2. On the 4 hourly chart you can see the bear div on my "Project" indicator
3. Theres this triangle inside the indicator which broke to the downside
3. The target of that triangle was perfectly hit and it was the first time, where it reached -0.3 on the scale
Now:
1. BTC made higher high in short term but did NOT break the high of the 12 february.
2. It does print on the 4 hourly a tripple bear div on my "Project" indicator.. and surprise.. again im seeing a triangle.
3. Theres this triangle inside indicator
3. The target of that triangle would reach again -0.3 on the scale which would be the second time on the 4 hourly.
So.. if the history repeats, bitcoin might dump one last time to around ~$5800 when it breaks the support line inside my indicator on the 4 hourly.
Im not entering any trade as long as BTC is inside that triangle.
Reasons for being bullish:
1. Higher volume in the last pumps.. but to be honest still not impressive
2. Higher high in short term on daily
3. It broke a long resistance line which starts on the 12th february. This resistance line had ~5 touches until it was broken and had been also retested which acted as support.
Reasons for being bearish:
1. 2D deathcross. Bitcoin did recently test the 200EMA of the 2D. It didnt touch it but i would say it counts. If you compare the 2D deathcrosses in the past, you will see that BTC did pump to the 200EMA of the 2D before the another major dumps happened
2. My indicator which tells me that the latest pump we have seen, hadnt so much momentum.
If the triangle inside my indicator breaks the resistance, ill enter long with a target of $8000-$8400
Short target: ~$5800
i found ONE thing which makes me still kind of bearish and on the chart you can see the reason.
I compared the behaviour with 2015 which looked kind of the same as it looks now.
Then:
1. BTC made higher high in short term but did NOT break the high of the 1st january 2015.
2. On the 4 hourly chart you can see the bear div on my "Project" indicator
3. Theres this triangle inside the indicator which broke to the downside
3. The target of that triangle was perfectly hit and it was the first time, where it reached -0.3 on the scale
Now:
1. BTC made higher high in short term but did NOT break the high of the 12 february.
2. It does print on the 4 hourly a tripple bear div on my "Project" indicator.. and surprise.. again im seeing a triangle.
3. Theres this triangle inside indicator
3. The target of that triangle would reach again -0.3 on the scale which would be the second time on the 4 hourly.
So.. if the history repeats, bitcoin might dump one last time to around ~$5800 when it breaks the support line inside my indicator on the 4 hourly.
Im not entering any trade as long as BTC is inside that triangle.
Reasons for being bullish:
1. Higher volume in the last pumps.. but to be honest still not impressive
2. Higher high in short term on daily
3. It broke a long resistance line which starts on the 12th february. This resistance line had ~5 touches until it was broken and had been also retested which acted as support.
Reasons for being bearish:
1. 2D deathcross. Bitcoin did recently test the 200EMA of the 2D. It didnt touch it but i would say it counts. If you compare the 2D deathcrosses in the past, you will see that BTC did pump to the 200EMA of the 2D before the another major dumps happened
2. My indicator which tells me that the latest pump we have seen, hadnt so much momentum.
If the triangle inside my indicator breaks the resistance, ill enter long with a target of $8000-$8400
Short target: ~$5800
Comment:
Another possible pattern found on 6 hourly chart. H&S
There might be as mentioned a last drive up and after that the correction might happen.
This would make sense.. It would make another higher high and when the correction to 5.8k comes, this will be the higher low.
And then 100.000k in 2 weeks. jk.
See chart below: