ConsensusReport

Big Moves Coming, But Are We Ready for a Short Term Rally?

Long
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Ah, a headline with a question mark. I suppose it is fitting for the cryptocurrency market, considering its wild nature and unpredictability. Let's refuse to throw wild predictions out there and admit that we do not know where exactly the market is heading in the short term, but there are a few hints.

The chart presented today shows price is being squeezed between the 50EMA and 100EMA. Both of these indicators have been solid resistance points since the bubble went bust at the end of 2017. They are also carriers of price when price above them.

The 50EMA is now curling upwards, but there is fading of momentum at the 100EMA. This squeezing signals price is about to make a relatively significant move and break a considerably important line of either support or resistance.

If the price heads above the 100EMA it'll run into a big challenge at the 4.4k level where it will meet resistance that has shown to be significant in recent months and also right before the parabolic move in late 2017.

Under price is the upwards curling 50EMA but also the proving to be a strong point of support, the 200WK MA.

So, when taking in consideration a rather bullish sentiment entering the space as it seems that the irrational retail investing crowd has all been washed out at this point (hence the strength of the 200 WK MA), at a gut level higher price does not seem inconceivable.

Range-bound action over the next few weeks would make a lot of sense as well. Price has yet to make new highs on the weekly and it remains to be seen if liquidity is here to stay.

Overall, fundamentals and adoption are looking fantastic. The potential floor set by the 200WK MA is a reason to FOMO, but patience is key when you want to accumulate as profitably as possible.

Predictions: Upside move will hit 4.4K level and stall, setting up a fall to at least the midpoint of the range between the 4.4k resistance and the 200WK MA (about $3,600).

A Downsides move will likely jam price within the 200WK and 50 EMA, setting the stage for price to enter our green rectangle which represents the best accumulation prices if the 200WK MA is the permanent floor.

Patients > FOMO
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