comparing BTC 2013/14 chart to current

Let me start by stating: this is not an attempt to compare the entirety of BTC / XBT markets from 2013/14 to 2017/18. I know there is a world of fundamental difference. This is simply a side by side observation, and lining up similar lengths of time and % gains/losses to see what, if any, correlation there is. Again..simply from a chart-to-chart comparison, all other things being equal (which they are not...)

**This is also not an attempt to make any sort of ‘call’ on where prices will immediately go from here today, tomorrow, or next week, month, whatever. ONLY to compare and observe. **

First, weekly chart of 2013/14:

*late 2013 it made a ~1000% run, peaking at 1175 in late nov (10x in 8 weeks or so.)
*it then fell ~70% back to it's 'baseline' of 400 (the blue line).

Daily chart 13/14:
from the time it climbed >400 to the time it really sunk <400 was ~391 days.
the vertical blue line is 211 days from the start of my 'cycle'.

bounce 1. the left-most yellow shaded area is first cross of 400 and climbed to 1175. ~200% climb
1a. then dropped ~70% back to 400 (briefly)
bounce 2. the 2nd yellow shade saw it rally from 400 to 995. ~150% climb
2b. from 995 again back to 400. (60% drop)
bounce 3. the next bounce only managed to climb to 720ish before reversing. ~80% gain.
bounce 3.5. shortly after bounce 3, it had a 'mini-bounce' of about 25%
bounce 4. the last shaded yellow bounce is almost identical to bounce 3

zooming back out the weekly:
we can see that after it lost that 400 'baseline' in late '14..took a year to reclaim 400; and 3+ yrs for A.T.H.

current weekly chart:
*late 2017 again ~1000% run, followed by ~70% drop back to 'baseline'
*the vertical blue line is today's date, 211 days from start of current cycle
*If this 'cycle' ends up being similar in length to the 2013/14; 392 days would take us to the very end of November of this year

If we revert to a daily chart of current action:
bounce 1. yellow area 1 is first cross of 6k and climbed to current A.T.H. of 20k. ~220% climb.
1a. then dropped ~70% back to 6k
bounce 2. yellow area 2 is rally from 6k up to 11.8k. ~100% climb.
2b. it dipped, tried again to make a new high, but failed and eventually found its way back to mid 6s. That left us with a pretty ugly double top.
bounce 3. yellow area 3 is 6425 up to 10k. ~55% climb

We only touched 6k on the nose once, and my ‘range’ is really 6-6.5; which we have tested 3 times. (I am counting this recent low of 7040 as the 3rd test)
We have seen a slight bounce up to 7500 today, and we await to see what happens from here.

In conclusion:
(Again, I stress the fundamental differences between then and now)
The last 10x run up, it took just over 3 yrs to make another A.T.H. In general, the higher the % move, the longer it takes to fully ‘digest’ that move and return to a true balance of supply and demand.
I am not implying that it will again take multiple years to reach another A.T.H. above 20k …but I DO believe it is simply worth looking to the past at similar scenarios for guidance. Furthermore, one previous instance does not make a ‘trend’; but because of the lack of historical reference, one instance is really all we have to go on.

From the chart, its important we hold 6-6.5k level. Otherwise it will begin to look more LIKE the 3year long bear market from 14-17.
First go around (2013/14), we saw rallies of 200%, 150%, 80%, 50%
This time around, rallies of 220%, 100%, 55% so far.

clear pattern of lower highs going back to 20k. With that in mind, will the next rally only be about 25% or so? each one gets smaller and smaller from its ‘baseline’ support