I think Bitcoin is teasing everybody by fluctuating in that range without making any definitive movements toward one direction or the other. Below you will find the most probable scenarios and what argues for/against each scenario.
A) Inverse head and shoulders: price should increase (dark green short arrow) and break above the neckline (red line) with good volume. If that happened, it will probably go gradually to around $17000 (long dark green arrow)
For:
1. The volume was very good at the trough of the inverse head
2. The duration of the formation is good
3. Price closed above the yellow trendline on the 27th
Against:
1. Heavy resistance at the 50MA (tested many times)
2. Heavy resistance at the green rectangle
3. Candlestick pattern on the 28th is bearish
B) Descending Triangle: Price should fluctuate between the yellow resistance line and the light green support line then break below support and continues to fall (brown arrows)
For:
1. The resistance level (yellow) tested twice for the formation
2. Price fails to break above the 50MA which is very close to the resistance line
3. Continuation of the larger trend
4. Bearish candlestick on Feb 28
Against:
1. Support only tested once
2. There is no overbought condition on oscillators
3. It is still forming
C) Forming wave #5 of Eliott waves (Ending diagonal) Orange arrows. This is basically based on wave analysis of the trend that started Mid December 2017. Please review the previous posts for more details.
As of now, I am still observing despite that I am tempted to short it (as a short-term trade). My general impression is that Bitcoin prices are in a consolidation phase now, trading in the same range for the last 2 weeks. This may continue for some time but it will eventually break one way or the other. During these times, patience is a virtue if you are a swinger. If you trade other time frames you might get different signals.
Let me know what you think guys and the best of luck
A) Inverse head and shoulders: price should increase (dark green short arrow) and break above the neckline (red line) with good volume. If that happened, it will probably go gradually to around $17000 (long dark green arrow)
For:
1. The volume was very good at the trough of the inverse head
2. The duration of the formation is good
3. Price closed above the yellow trendline on the 27th
Against:
1. Heavy resistance at the 50MA (tested many times)
2. Heavy resistance at the green rectangle
3. Candlestick pattern on the 28th is bearish
B) Descending Triangle: Price should fluctuate between the yellow resistance line and the light green support line then break below support and continues to fall (brown arrows)
For:
1. The resistance level (yellow) tested twice for the formation
2. Price fails to break above the 50MA which is very close to the resistance line
3. Continuation of the larger trend
4. Bearish candlestick on Feb 28
Against:
1. Support only tested once
2. There is no overbought condition on oscillators
3. It is still forming
C) Forming wave #5 of Eliott waves (Ending diagonal) Orange arrows. This is basically based on wave analysis of the trend that started Mid December 2017. Please review the previous posts for more details.
As of now, I am still observing despite that I am tempted to short it (as a short-term trade). My general impression is that Bitcoin prices are in a consolidation phase now, trading in the same range for the last 2 weeks. This may continue for some time but it will eventually break one way or the other. During these times, patience is a virtue if you are a swinger. If you trade other time frames you might get different signals.
Let me know what you think guys and the best of luck
Comment:
Very close to the red neckline. The volume is poor though. Still, no sure trading signal.
Comment:
The price is above the neckline line now (red line). The volume is poor and it might a false break up. There are multiple resistance levels above.
R1: 11500 (Weak Fib level)
R2: 11900 to 12200 (Strong resistance at this level - Fib and historical support/resistance)
There are still 10 hours in the day. We will see what happens.
R1: 11500 (Weak Fib level)
R2: 11900 to 12200 (Strong resistance at this level - Fib and historical support/resistance)
There are still 10 hours in the day. We will see what happens.