Making abstraction on the noise pattern created by pumps and dumps for price manipulation, it seems that some sense can be made out of tracing some Elliott waves patterns. I've tried to imagine all kind of subwaves and I got to this. It pretty fits the bear flag pattern that's forming too, and also the triangle target I was previously talking about.
So maybe the C wave was not really shortened, but I might have counted some subwave of the B wave.
Things are hard to see, waves are distorted and pushed sideways by market indecision, but at least they could make some sense this way.
If it's true, we have to look at two things. First, if wave C (with subwave 5) will get to the end or will be truncated. A shortened wave would be a very bullish sign, and definitely should buy. Second, if the wave will not be truncated, we should see if we are not actually in an impulse 12345 downwards wave; that would be very bearish and could validate the crash pattern similar to the 2014 one; if so, still an upwards ABC correction can be expected though before a new wave going down in the dark.
For now, we just have to wait and see.
So maybe the C wave was not really shortened, but I might have counted some subwave of the B wave.
Things are hard to see, waves are distorted and pushed sideways by market indecision, but at least they could make some sense this way.
If it's true, we have to look at two things. First, if wave C (with subwave 5) will get to the end or will be truncated. A shortened wave would be a very bullish sign, and definitely should buy. Second, if the wave will not be truncated, we should see if we are not actually in an impulse 12345 downwards wave; that would be very bearish and could validate the crash pattern similar to the 2014 one; if so, still an upwards ABC correction can be expected though before a new wave going down in the dark.
For now, we just have to wait and see.
Comment:
Wave 4 was much longer than I've sketched it, but ok, one can hardly tell when the retracement happens (maybe Fibonacci times, but I didn't want to complicate the chart too much). If subwave 5 does not start soon, the ABC scenario could be invalidated. Bulls are trying to push above $9100 and price is still a lot manipulated, so I wouldn't be surprised.
Comment:
Subwave 5 did not start, yet the ABC pattern still holds when looking attentively. In the limits of the manipulation noise, the subwave 1 domain has not yet been trespassed by subwave 4, and most probably won't be, cause resistance below $9200 is strong, volume still low, and not many new longs are being created; the main bullish effects is just created by shorting traders (BTCUSDSHORTS chart show a growing red candle on the 2h chart).
Meanwhile, a larger and more clear symmetrical triangle is taking shape. All symmetrical triangles in the last 2 months indicated trend reversals, and the structure of the triangle wave inside, created by the upwards 2-5 waves (becoming an "A" wave), the AB waves (becoming BC) and subsequent subwaves, suggests it will happen again (the subwaves "i-iii" become D and the longer "iv" would turn into an E wave which should retrace downwards after hitting the upper triangle line).
Therefore, if the triangle confirms the trend reversal, I expect a rapid fall which might target $8000 ($1000 is the triangle base length, which should be substracted from the triangle exit point at about $9000). Let's see if I'm right. Support levels are still pretty strong.
Meanwhile, a larger and more clear symmetrical triangle is taking shape. All symmetrical triangles in the last 2 months indicated trend reversals, and the structure of the triangle wave inside, created by the upwards 2-5 waves (becoming an "A" wave), the AB waves (becoming BC) and subsequent subwaves, suggests it will happen again (the subwaves "i-iii" become D and the longer "iv" would turn into an E wave which should retrace downwards after hitting the upper triangle line).
Therefore, if the triangle confirms the trend reversal, I expect a rapid fall which might target $8000 ($1000 is the triangle base length, which should be substracted from the triangle exit point at about $9000). Let's see if I'm right. Support levels are still pretty strong.
Comment:
Still moving sideways. Bulls don't give up, but we are still inside the new symmetrical triangle trying to break out; maybe we will eventually, but only moving sideways for now, cause we have multiple resistance levels formed between $9215 and $9300, which bulls seem unable to cross.
If we don't break out soon, the triangle should push us down most likely by $1000; no trade for now.
If we don't break out soon, the triangle should push us down most likely by $1000; no trade for now.
Comment:
There was a pump from the bulls, and we broke up. In this moment, the ABC wave pattern is invalidated. Still, we are in a triangle ABCDE wave as long as we don't go above $9500; only the triangle will be different.
It's still hard to predict what comes, bulls had to fight hard to get here. We might as well be in another bull trap as we seen many recently. If we can have a better outsight, I will come with a new chart.
It's still hard to predict what comes, bulls had to fight hard to get here. We might as well be in another bull trap as we seen many recently. If we can have a better outsight, I will come with a new chart.
