BTC short idea

I think Bitcoin is goin down again. There has been a very clear bull pennant forming on the log chart this year, with a top at 7500-7800. The best indicator right now is the Fib .618, which Bitcoin just tested. We could see a drop to 6000, or 5800, or 5400, or even 5000. Or we could drop to 6000 and go sideways. But I think the likeliest scenario is we are going down right now.

Scenario 1: Bitcoin forms a rising flag over the next few days

Short
sell @ 7074
target 1: 6029.28
stop: 7254
risk/reward: 5.804

Scenario 2: Bitcoin drops below 6900 in the next 12 hours

Short
sell @ 6850
target 1: 5800
stop: 7000
risk/reward: 7

Another possibility is Bitcoin bounces at 6900 to retest 7500, which I would give 25% chance, in which case we lose scenario 1. But if Bitcoin drops to 6800, I would say 90% we are going to 6000. From there we could go sideways, or drop to 5800/5400/5000.

Comment:

Bitcoin has started to form a downward flag so I've adjusted my idea.

sell @ 6980
target 1: 6029.28
stop: 7100
risk/reward 7.922666667

Comment:

Trade active:

I put in a pretty big short at 6980. So far so good. I plan to close at 6029.28, and reevaluate. I might put in another short on the 6k bounce.

Comment:

So far so good.

Stop: 6600
Target 1: 5940
Target 2: 5440/Moving stop to 6200

Comment:

Stop: 6600
Target 1: 5940
Target 2: 5440/Moving stop to 6300 *

Comment:

Stop: 6600
Target 1: 5940
Target 2: 5440/Moving stop to 6200 ***

I think 6200 is the right place

Trade closed: stop reached:

Stopped at 6500