BTC/USD - A few possible scenarios
Bitcoin has been a rollercoaster recently and a lot of people are unsure of which direction we might be taking over the rest of this month. I have painted a few scenarios that could play out based on simple support, resistance, and trends. Right now I am looking at a falling wedge pattern which seems to indicate a bullish breakout later. That being said, there has still been a major sell-off so I am preparing for a scenario to possibly break below the falling wedge, however, I think a break up is much more likely.
Scenario 1:
Right now indicators on the 4H are looking pretty bullish as we are reaching a golden cross and we can see some more buying volume coming in. RSI is also creeping upwards again as we get close to the resistance line of the falling wedge. In this scenario, I believe we have a good chance of breaking up above $10,150 which could send us back to the 0.236 retracement level of $10,600. We do have a chance of shooting past that, depending on how much buying power the market has which could even bring us to $11,236. If we happen to reject this resistance level of $10,150 I can see us moving towards wedge support around $8,700-8,800 where we will probably bounce on.
Scenario 2:
If we in fact don’t move towards the wedge’s resistance, I can see us falling to the support instead around $8,800 - a price point many analysts have been predicting for a few months. At this point, we will probably bounce given the strength Bitcoin has at the moment and then we can possibly break through resistance which will fall around $9,800 at the time. I would then aim for the targets of these retracement levels as they have been playing out very well. If we don’t end up bouncing on the support of the wedge, we can see a massive dump as we break downwards. That would be pretty bad news and I can see us falling below $7,500 if that is the case.
Bitcoin has been a rollercoaster recently and a lot of people are unsure of which direction we might be taking over the rest of this month. I have painted a few scenarios that could play out based on simple support, resistance, and trends. Right now I am looking at a falling wedge pattern which seems to indicate a bullish breakout later. That being said, there has still been a major sell-off so I am preparing for a scenario to possibly break below the falling wedge, however, I think a break up is much more likely.
Scenario 1:
Right now indicators on the 4H are looking pretty bullish as we are reaching a golden cross and we can see some more buying volume coming in. RSI is also creeping upwards again as we get close to the resistance line of the falling wedge. In this scenario, I believe we have a good chance of breaking up above $10,150 which could send us back to the 0.236 retracement level of $10,600. We do have a chance of shooting past that, depending on how much buying power the market has which could even bring us to $11,236. If we happen to reject this resistance level of $10,150 I can see us moving towards wedge support around $8,700-8,800 where we will probably bounce on.
Scenario 2:
If we in fact don’t move towards the wedge’s resistance, I can see us falling to the support instead around $8,800 - a price point many analysts have been predicting for a few months. At this point, we will probably bounce given the strength Bitcoin has at the moment and then we can possibly break through resistance which will fall around $9,800 at the time. I would then aim for the targets of these retracement levels as they have been playing out very well. If we don’t end up bouncing on the support of the wedge, we can see a massive dump as we break downwards. That would be pretty bad news and I can see us falling below $7,500 if that is the case.