Hello All,
Typically, I'll put together a nice little article here for you guys. But, I have the Flu. I'm that guy. The guy you want to stay home, not to come to work, not to go touching the carts at the grocery store... so, I'm doing just that. Sitting at home. I mustered up enough energy to put together this idea, but I've run out of energy to formulate a long explanation as to why.
So, let me make it short and simple.
Bitcoin held the 200-week moving average at $3150. As long as we are above that, this model stands true. If we break below $3150, say goodbye to this idea. And, really, that's a pretty negative long term situation for crypto. If you want any bullish action in the next year or two, that 200-week MA needs to hold at $3150.
A retrace from the current lows up to $5,500 would be a 70.2% retrace from the fall we experienced back in November. That is Bitcoin's "Sweet Spot", 70.2%.
Then, we go ahead and do another 70.2% retrace of the move from $3150 to $5,500, taking us back down to $3,850. We will get all the usual stuff, guru "professionals" calling for new lows, fear, and uncertainty. We bounce at $3850, and start a full retrace of the entire fall from $20,000 to $3,150, with a retrace taking us up into the $13,000s.
Now, if we compare our fractal to 2014, it says we should have another fall back down to $3150. Is that possible? TOTALLY. And I don't count that idea out. However, I see this as a VIABLE prediction. So, I'm sharing it.
So, the question is, would I be adding here? No way. I wouldn't touch it. Entering at the low $3,000s was smart, but entering now is dangerous. We need to see how the next few moves play out, and if this idea works, then we'll expect to see the prices we have now, again later. If we get confirmation of holding this level when we come back to test it, bam, good to go.
Best of luck to all.
See ya.
Typically, I'll put together a nice little article here for you guys. But, I have the Flu. I'm that guy. The guy you want to stay home, not to come to work, not to go touching the carts at the grocery store... so, I'm doing just that. Sitting at home. I mustered up enough energy to put together this idea, but I've run out of energy to formulate a long explanation as to why.
So, let me make it short and simple.
Bitcoin held the 200-week moving average at $3150. As long as we are above that, this model stands true. If we break below $3150, say goodbye to this idea. And, really, that's a pretty negative long term situation for crypto. If you want any bullish action in the next year or two, that 200-week MA needs to hold at $3150.
A retrace from the current lows up to $5,500 would be a 70.2% retrace from the fall we experienced back in November. That is Bitcoin's "Sweet Spot", 70.2%.
Then, we go ahead and do another 70.2% retrace of the move from $3150 to $5,500, taking us back down to $3,850. We will get all the usual stuff, guru "professionals" calling for new lows, fear, and uncertainty. We bounce at $3850, and start a full retrace of the entire fall from $20,000 to $3,150, with a retrace taking us up into the $13,000s.
Now, if we compare our fractal to 2014, it says we should have another fall back down to $3150. Is that possible? TOTALLY. And I don't count that idea out. However, I see this as a VIABLE prediction. So, I'm sharing it.
So, the question is, would I be adding here? No way. I wouldn't touch it. Entering at the low $3,000s was smart, but entering now is dangerous. We need to see how the next few moves play out, and if this idea works, then we'll expect to see the prices we have now, again later. If we get confirmation of holding this level when we come back to test it, bam, good to go.
Best of luck to all.
See ya.
Comment:
Alternatively, with a fall down to $3,200 first:
Comment:
Hit play ;)