Bitcoin In Secondary Trend Correction. Primary Trend is BULLISH!
I believe that Bitcoin began a new Bull Market Primary Trend on November 21 2022 and broke through the prior Downtrend line on January 30 2023. From its mid February high I believe Bitcoin commenced a secondary trend correction. Within that secondary trend correction there are Minor & Micro moves. Attempting to call those Minor & Macro moves can be daunting and can be very puzzling. Why? Because a pattern may fail, a wave may extend etc. That's why many Elliotticians tend to change their counts. From the very best down to amateurs. Elliott wave is difficult. The general principal is very difficult but is kindergarten in comparison to NeoWave by Glen Neely.
Allow me to quote this for you:
"Secondary trend: The secondary, or intermediate, trend represents the corrective phase in the primary trend and usually lasts three weeks to three months. 3. Minor trend: According to Dow theory, the minor trend usually lasts less than three weeks."
So those Trend length rules & guidelines don't come from me. They are from the Dow Theory which I abide by.
Recently I called for a correction in a secondary trend while Bullish on the primary trend. At the peak in mid February I called a 2B Top along with an inverted Exotic Dragon Pattern within my EW count that suggested a truncation in the fifth of the 5th wave.
On the weekly I called for a sentiment shift with a bearish harami that printed on the 13th week which in of itself suggested a likely trend reversal would ensue.
Within the secondary trend in the second part within which I labeled as wave C I noticed a Bullish Exotic Dragon Pattern. I therefore prematurely called for a Minor trend reversal within a secondary downtrend. The pattern failed and so did my count since wave C appears to have extended due to price rather than reversing continued its decline.
I'm writing this to remove any potential ambiguity that a viewer may have due to my multiple entertaining trend calls, wave counts, price patterns, and market direction . I don't just draw a line and say if it goes there, then that, and if it doesn't ,then that, kind of nonsense.So keep in mind that patterns fail and miscounts occur. There is no way an Elliottician can label an extension before it occurs. It's impossible! Only an Elliottician can understand and agree to that. That said, I believe Bitcoin is either at or very near a Minor Trend reversal.
In conclusion and until proven otherwise, I believe a New Bull Market Primary Trend began on November 21st 2022 in Bitcoin. I also believe that Bitcoin has entered a secondary correction since mid February of which I called and price has confirmed and still is. The only way to prove that Bitcoin has not entered in a new Bull Market Primary Trend is for price, and only price, to breach the November 21 2022 low. No macro mumbo jumbo lagging indicator, nor sentiment and Bank or Exchange collapses, only price can make or break a trend, period! My belief is based solely on TA. The rest I couldn't careless about. Why? Because the market leads the economy. Technical analysis is a leading indicator and that's what I apply and go by.
All the best, and once again, in my humble opinion, which is a disclaimer(wink)!
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Secondary trend correction ended on March 10th reversal signal to resume into the New Bull Market Primary Trend that began on November 21 2022,in my humble opinion. Reversals begin at a micro level then proceed into a Minor, then secondary, and finally primary. Based on time the price & trend reversal is still at the Minor level since March 10th.