The 2021 Jul range is reminiscent of the 2018 bottom.
The market has been ranging for a while, and everyone is bored. There are many memes on Twitter about the boredom of the range –it is nuking sideways–
Multiple traders have run polls about whether we are in a bear market or a bull market. The results are always almost evenly split between bullish, bearish and neutral. However, the bearish sentiment does seem to have a higher consensus.
Some people are waiting for a drop to $25K. On the run-up, that was a level where bitcoin traded heavily. After breaking out from the old ATH ($20K), it spent one week trying to pass the $25K area. So some say it could provide some support.
Many expect a retest of the previous ATH. There's talk about a long wick that might pierce lower than the $20K area.
All this reminds me of the 2018 bottom. Initially, the price ranged for two months at $6K, the big drop to $3K came, and then it ranged for another two months. Back then, people were expecting to scoop up cheap bitcoin around the previous ATH of $1.1K, and some were even hoping to get bids filled at around $800. All very similar to what we hear today.
So, I decided to repeat the 2018 bottom pattern to see what that could look like now.
- The bottom could be in, but we have about two more months of ranging.
- We could still be on track for $100K by year's end.
Based on that pattern, $28,700 is a level to keep an eye on.
Multiple traders have run polls about whether we are in a bear market or a bull market. The results are always almost evenly split between bullish, bearish and neutral. However, the bearish sentiment does seem to have a higher consensus.
Some people are waiting for a drop to $25K. On the run-up, that was a level where bitcoin traded heavily. After breaking out from the old ATH ($20K), it spent one week trying to pass the $25K area. So some say it could provide some support.
Many expect a retest of the previous ATH. There's talk about a long wick that might pierce lower than the $20K area.
All this reminds me of the 2018 bottom. Initially, the price ranged for two months at $6K, the big drop to $3K came, and then it ranged for another two months. Back then, people were expecting to scoop up cheap bitcoin around the previous ATH of $1.1K, and some were even hoping to get bids filled at around $800. All very similar to what we hear today.
So, I decided to repeat the 2018 bottom pattern to see what that could look like now.
- The bottom could be in, but we have about two more months of ranging.
- We could still be on track for $100K by year's end.
Based on that pattern, $28,700 is a level to keep an eye on.
Trade active:
Fractal remains valid, we continue to follow the pattern seen towards the end of 2018.
We did a 2x from $30K to $60K in the week of October 11. So, if we are to fulfill the rest of the pattern we are expecting another 2x from $60K to $120K around the week of December 18.
We did a 2x from $30K to $60K in the week of October 11. So, if we are to fulfill the rest of the pattern we are expecting another 2x from $60K to $120K around the week of December 18.
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