This is a quick look at the Downtrend from $14K to our current local low near 6400.
What I want to demonstrate is retrace back to the 618/786 zone after a lower low gets printed in the trend.
We do have one anomaly during August but I wanted to show it anyway. That series failed to print a lower low.
Anyway, lets break it down, one series at a time.
Here is the overview of current action.
Now let's take a look at the First Series:
Price hit a High of $13,880
Price hit a Low of $9614
618 at $12,250
786 at $12,967
The next rally gets price to a high of $13,200
Now the Second Series:
Price hit a High of $13,200
Price hit a Low of $9049
618 at $11,614
786 at $12,311
The next rally gets price to a high of $12,325
Here is where things come off the rails...
We failed to make a lower low in this rally but price certainly fell...
Price hit a High of $12,325
Price hit a Low of $9320 - Not a Lower Low
618 at $11,177
786 at $11,681
The next rally gets price to a high of $10,949
It should be mentioned that we did hit the 50% which had a level of $10,822
Now the Fourth Series:
Price hit a High of $10,949
Price hit a Low of $7293
618 at $9552
786 at $10,166
The next rally gets price to a high of $10,350
And that brings us to our current Series: Series 5
Price hit a High of $10,350
Price hit a Low of $6425
618 at $8850
786 at $9510
We have already hit the 618 level when we hit $8903
This ties nicely into my thesis on the 350/200 DMA which is linked below.
That deals with the interaction of the 350 DMA pushing to the 236/382 local where it finds the 200 DMA and gets a massive 1.13-1.27 rejection to the downside.
We have Key levels above the 200 DMA and seeing 9510 and then a dump into the 5's before a decent bounce would not surprise me in the least.
What I want to demonstrate is retrace back to the 618/786 zone after a lower low gets printed in the trend.
We do have one anomaly during August but I wanted to show it anyway. That series failed to print a lower low.
Anyway, lets break it down, one series at a time.
Here is the overview of current action.
Now let's take a look at the First Series:
Price hit a High of $13,880
Price hit a Low of $9614
618 at $12,250
786 at $12,967
The next rally gets price to a high of $13,200
Now the Second Series:
Price hit a High of $13,200
Price hit a Low of $9049
618 at $11,614
786 at $12,311
The next rally gets price to a high of $12,325
Here is where things come off the rails...
We failed to make a lower low in this rally but price certainly fell...
Price hit a High of $12,325
Price hit a Low of $9320 - Not a Lower Low
618 at $11,177
786 at $11,681
The next rally gets price to a high of $10,949
It should be mentioned that we did hit the 50% which had a level of $10,822
Now the Fourth Series:
Price hit a High of $10,949
Price hit a Low of $7293
618 at $9552
786 at $10,166
The next rally gets price to a high of $10,350
And that brings us to our current Series: Series 5
Price hit a High of $10,350
Price hit a Low of $6425
618 at $8850
786 at $9510
We have already hit the 618 level when we hit $8903
This ties nicely into my thesis on the 350/200 DMA which is linked below.
That deals with the interaction of the 350 DMA pushing to the 236/382 local where it finds the 200 DMA and gets a massive 1.13-1.27 rejection to the downside.
We have Key levels above the 200 DMA and seeing 9510 and then a dump into the 5's before a decent bounce would not surprise me in the least.
