Updates will follow on this chart. I have a very strong feeling our 2013 pattern will repeat, with the main reason that the ICO mania is over and that this cash will flow out of the coinmarketcap again. Month chart and week-chart are still topped, once the weekly macd starts to turn bearish we will see a large corrective phase.
Order cancelled:
Bitcoin up for new bullrun!
Form a personal perspective, what would Segwit change for me? I currently have ordered several things with bitcoin for fun, not convenience and stealth. These buys where things like pizza and sushi, which I could directly order from the home delivery website and were delivered within 30-60min. This is before Segwit, it was okay to use, but I had no problem with tx speed on the web.
Now I can imagine you are standing in a store, you want to buy something with bitcoin from your mobile wallet and don't want to wait several minutes to wait for approval. What is acceptable for this? I find 1 minute already very long, it should be done in several seconds otherwise it would not be sustainable queue wise. 60 persons would be a hour waiting time just for the transaction. So realtime use is unpractical at the moment. Will Segwit fix this? Is it able to get tx speeds that ARE manageable in realtime?
If not, then segwit will not change much for me and I will only keep using bitcoin for fun because I trade it and sometimes allow myself to buy something.
I see that bitcoin does have good use in darkmarkets. Without this economy bitcoin's actual use would be quite minimal as to speak. The problem is that these darkmarkets tend to be uncertain. Tor sites like AlphaBay are unreliable, with exit scams or legal arrest.
When these sites are taken down, a large portion of real use is cut out. It slowly rebuild as new markets arise and new vendors or buyers have enough confidence it is not another scam.
Let's now look at the Japan legalisation. Okay, great everybody in japan can now legally pay with bitcoin, but looking at my previous comment about realtime manageablility I see there is a major bottleneck for adoption. Is the convenience of paying with bitcoin, having more stealth transactions, but also with high volatility, worth keeping for a store or should they directly sell it for their own local currency again to minimize potential loss.
The fact that transaction are not fast, and that segwit still will not reach a practical speed, plus the risk of high volatility and keeping bitcoin longterm are the two very reasons why I think it is not ready.
Maybe after another hardfork/softfork? But how do we make sure shops and holders dont sell it off with volatile spikes?
The last question remains unanswered and that's what annoys me the most. Money will only stay when it has use (which bitcoin has!), but to what extent is it practical to keep?
Join the debate in the comment. I'm glad to hear any reasoning against and in favour of the current and future use. Remember we are here to fix problems, no answer is wrong!