Bitcoin Again in Distribution Zone?

In my previous analysis i showed some similarities with the 10K high from 2 months ago. Now 2 days later we can see those similarities are still there, at the moment making it even more clear about where we might be. Now a lot will depend on how the stock market moves. There we can see for the Dow that it has reached the support of the big bearish wedge wedge it has moved inside of the past weeks. So if we would see it hang above that support the coming day(s), Bitcoin could make that channel as well the coming day or 2. If so, we would have an identical pattern as 2 months ago. Now i wish i could say that it would then continue to do the same, but past year or so, fractals have become a bit unreliable, while in 2018 they were magical.






My previous analysis i wrote an update:

Still nothing real has happened so far, so moving a bit similar as 2 weeks ago. Open Intrest has increased quite a bit past days, but i don't trust it though. I have mentioned the OI a few times, and shortly after things were changing. So i think this increase in OI is fake (meaning these whales are shorting one account and longing the other to play break even solely to increase the OI number). For the ones who think that's bullshit, well i could be wrong on this one, but i have proven it twice the past months.

Anyway, still a lot can happen on the short term, i still favor a bearish scenario for the coming week, but no use fighting it. What i can say, something we tend to see during a bearish trend, that if we would see something like the blue line. So a a break above this 6900/950 zone and squeeze to 7100 but seeing clear rejection there. If we would then see a fast drop below the 6800, i think the bear trend will be confirmed. Until then, it can still go both ways.

Another part of the previous analysis:

Here below, you can't really call them an H&S , but they have the characteristics of one, because of the neckline. 2 weeks ago, we can see it never came close to the neckline (green zone). So if we would see 6600ish get touched, it would be a difference compared to 2 weeks ago.

Here we can see the 6600ish has been touched, so this puts a lot of pressure on the bulls, because they really can not allow price to break this 6600/6550 are from now on, because of the H&S shape we have now. Let me be clear, the H&S is VERY ugly, but it does seem we have a clear neckline/support zone around 6600, so i do think a break of that zone will cause a significant move. As you can see in the primary chart as well, i think that thick red line is a key level for the bulls. If that resistance line, of this possible down trend, gets broken, it could all have just been a correction on the rally from past week (i personally don't think it's likely, but it could). At the moment we can see that level is around 7100ish, but i think for the bears that bitcoin should not even get above the 6950 (unless it moves slowly in that channel as the fractal suggests).

When i look at some of the alts, many of them are in danger zones, but still above support. So similar to bitcoins 6600 zone. That is also why i think, that if the 6600ish would break, we could see another big drop. So i think we have a few important days ahead of us. Try NOT to get caught up in these crazy moves we have seen the past hours, these are mean moves from whales just trying to shake out high leveraged traders. Because prices keeps coming back to the middle line it seems. Volume seems to be decreasing as well, so it could be that these shake outs have come to an end, for today at least, and we could ge the real direction for today from now on

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Previous analysis:

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On the left again that blue line, still following that one. On the right that channel from the fractal of 2 months ago. So i would say both are in full play, up until we see a break up from that channel.

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So looks like the fractal is in play (the one on the right from the previous update. There is however a difference, the upwards movement (yellow circle), is moving steeper than 2 months ago. That is in favor of bulls normally. We can also see a fight the past 2/3 hours with some zig zag movement between 6820/6920.

But as mentioned in the previous analysis, if the channel breaks on the upside, i will consider the fractal as invalid, but won't take it off the table completely. But if we would see a move down coming hours to 6700/6750, could mean the fractal is in play.

There is also another good (bearish option), which i described earlier today, It's where i drew that H&S. I have noticed many people consider the neckline has been broken already, but i simply didn't like that H&S, i wanted to see a bigger right shoulder, and this could be it if we hang between 6750/6950 for another half day or so and then start to drop (look at the chart above)

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So eventually things slowed down a bit, making a small correction down, where yesterday there was some danger of a move above the resistance. So far it is still moving as the fractal. The H&S right shoulder also seems to be in play here.

For the H&S, ideally we see it move between 6800 and max 6950, seeing some top formation inside that right shoulder. For the fractal it could be that the spread between the high and low is bigger and we go a bit above the 6950 as well. Can't really say which one is in play here. It looks as if the right shoulder version is more in play since it is hanging around the highs bit longer than the fractal would suggests.

One thing is clear, and was the past 4/5 days actually, Bitcoin has been lagging behind the stock market, today as well. Where the Dow went up almost the highs again, Bitcoin barely moved. Before the weekend, this was a sign, so maybe it is a sign again. However, stock market is being stubborn again, so if they would make another squeeze up, it could drag bitcoin with it.

I spoke out my frustration on the correlation with the stock market a few weeks ago, that still stands because it makes things so much more difficult AND boring. Because now it almost seems as if the all financial markets move in the same direction (except for currencies).

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Now think for the H&S, the high should have been set now. So for the right shoulder, ideally we see something like the blue line on the right from now on. If we see a sharp move up above 6950ish, the fractal might also still be in play up until like 7050, but would be guessing then. Think bears don't wanna see it break above 6950ish from now on.

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New Bitcoin analysis: