Bitcoin is slowly bleeding under short-term and long-term moving averages while looking like it is about to break the bullish market structure. IMO this is a simple healthy correction after an 85% move up off the low year to date.
While everyone is saying Bitcoin is dead and sentiment goes into the toilet on crypto Twitter I look for entry positions based on level-to-level and timeline.
PRICE ACTION: This long idea is set for price bouncing off the mid-term moving average (50 Week MA) with a capitulation candle and immediate reaction to reject prices at the lower level. I would be just as excited to get the same reaction further down into the Fibonacci golden zone.
TIMELINE: Regarding timeline, I would be looking at week of September 11 for $21,500 to $23,000 level and will follow the long-term tend line for rising price entry levels. IE following week the lowest price moves up $500. I would chase this a bit all the way to the safest entry in October, where the up-trending line meets the down-trending line, right at the golden zone.
INDICATORS: The main indicators I am looking at right now are global liquidity (in orange bottom pane) which is holding a pivotal position of QE helicopter money, CMF which is trending to flip bullish again next week, and OBV which is also starting to show some strength again.
BEYOND TA: All of this said... we are 23-26 weeks from the 4th Bitcoin halving (depending on consistency of hash rate) and what that means to me is that dips are for buying unless $20k breaks with conviction due to a black swan even, which is not high on my percentage chance base case at this point.
While everyone is saying Bitcoin is dead and sentiment goes into the toilet on crypto Twitter I look for entry positions based on level-to-level and timeline.
PRICE ACTION: This long idea is set for price bouncing off the mid-term moving average (50 Week MA) with a capitulation candle and immediate reaction to reject prices at the lower level. I would be just as excited to get the same reaction further down into the Fibonacci golden zone.
TIMELINE: Regarding timeline, I would be looking at week of September 11 for $21,500 to $23,000 level and will follow the long-term tend line for rising price entry levels. IE following week the lowest price moves up $500. I would chase this a bit all the way to the safest entry in October, where the up-trending line meets the down-trending line, right at the golden zone.
INDICATORS: The main indicators I am looking at right now are global liquidity (in orange bottom pane) which is holding a pivotal position of QE helicopter money, CMF which is trending to flip bullish again next week, and OBV which is also starting to show some strength again.
BEYOND TA: All of this said... we are 23-26 weeks from the 4th Bitcoin halving (depending on consistency of hash rate) and what that means to me is that dips are for buying unless $20k breaks with conviction due to a black swan even, which is not high on my percentage chance base case at this point.