Bitcoin: No Reason To Move.

Another buy signal will be in play upon the break of 29,200 (break above previous inside bar high), but without a catalyst, follow through is not likely. Over the previous week, I shared a swing trade long idea at 29,600 which is now in the red. I have not made any adjustments in an attempt to give this market a chance which still maintains a broader bullish structure. After being extremely selective for weeks, the only reason I shared this idea was because of the appearance of a bullish pin bar within a high probability price location.

I have been writing for weeks about the nature of seasonally low average volume market environment (see my previous articles). If there is ever a time to take time off from the market, this is the time. I do not expect average volume to increase to levels healthier for short term strategies until October.

When I refer to time off, this is for traders who trade strategies that require a lot of personal input like analyzing charts, etc. Those who have access to automation (like my recently updated trade scanner) have a better chance simply because they are following opportunities that are STRICTLY defined by a set of rules. For example, it may take 12+ hours for the criteria for a specific type of opportunity to be met. No one is going to sit in front of a screen or check their phone constantly for this setup. The setup may appear while you are sleeping. The scanner can wait all day and all night. It never makes up trades, it never rationalizes trades, it never gets bored. It just waits and reports.

Wouldn't a low volume environment lower the probability of a favorable outcome for these types of signals? It can, but it depends on what inefficiency the setup is attempting to identify. Usually environments like this lower the frequency of the momentum reversal signals, rather than the probability of a favorable outcome. The favorable outcome is partly a function of order placement which again the scanner provides the prices in advance. Traders on the other hand, especially those with little experience don't know how to effectively place and adjust the orders, and that is after having to wait hours for a proper setup.

This is why I just tell traders without such tools, take the time off or paper trade. When volume improves, the frequency of a variety of trade setups along with follow through improves. Think of it like this: if you were a professional poker player, when do you think it would be the best time to play? When the tables are empty except for a few regulars who know each other's tricks OR when its prime time and all the tables are full of tourists who are drunk and looking to have fun. Where do you think the profit comes from? Same applies in the markets.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.