First let's look at the price action pattern. We have an upward sloping trendline that acted as support during a period of very low volatility early this year, and a downward sloping trendline that has acted as strong resistance over the last several months. Many have called this a giant symmetrical triangle and used that to call for deep drops. However, for the past several months we have actually traded within a descending wedge pattern, the apex of which interestingly converges with the apex of the symmetrical triangle formed by our longer term trendlines. This is a very bullish pattern as I'm sure I don't have to tell you.
Secondly let's try to match the stochastic with the price action. We can see that the stoch has been a very good predictor of short term bottoms: every time it's dipped below the oversold level of 20 since the ATH it's rebounded immediately along with the price, EXCEPT during the 52w bottom when it stayed below 20 for an extended period as the market bottomed out. Based on this history, it seems we can expect the stoch to begin climbing slowly upward from its current position.
Combining these two factors, I predict that the price will continue trading within the descending wedge pattern while the stoch prints a bullish divergence until the week of December 23-30, which is where the apex of both the symmetrical triangle and the descending wedge meet, somewhere around 6200-6500. This is when we'll begin the next bull run, potentially reaching a new ATH shortly after (not before) the halving. Next sell opportunity seems to be around 16-17k based on the pull-it-out-your-ass price target system.
In the short term, I think we can relatively safely expect a bounce from our current level, as we've simultaneously touched the 61.8 fib level and the support of the descending wedge pattern- this should be an area of very strong support. Of course, all of this theorizing would be completely invalidated if the price broke downward out of the descending wedge pattern, and then a fall to the next fib retracement level at around 5500 could be likely. I don't expect that to happen, but BTC has a way of surprising.
Anyway, this is not financial advice, and you should do your own research.
Thank you
Secondly let's try to match the stochastic with the price action. We can see that the stoch has been a very good predictor of short term bottoms: every time it's dipped below the oversold level of 20 since the ATH it's rebounded immediately along with the price, EXCEPT during the 52w bottom when it stayed below 20 for an extended period as the market bottomed out. Based on this history, it seems we can expect the stoch to begin climbing slowly upward from its current position.
Combining these two factors, I predict that the price will continue trading within the descending wedge pattern while the stoch prints a bullish divergence until the week of December 23-30, which is where the apex of both the symmetrical triangle and the descending wedge meet, somewhere around 6200-6500. This is when we'll begin the next bull run, potentially reaching a new ATH shortly after (not before) the halving. Next sell opportunity seems to be around 16-17k based on the pull-it-out-your-ass price target system.
In the short term, I think we can relatively safely expect a bounce from our current level, as we've simultaneously touched the 61.8 fib level and the support of the descending wedge pattern- this should be an area of very strong support. Of course, all of this theorizing would be completely invalidated if the price broke downward out of the descending wedge pattern, and then a fall to the next fib retracement level at around 5500 could be likely. I don't expect that to happen, but BTC has a way of surprising.
Anyway, this is not financial advice, and you should do your own research.
Thank you