I have heard no people talking about the Bollinger Bands on the large timeframes. So I decided to look it up.
On the monthly, we are at the bottom of the range. Before a next bull market it is likely the bands need time to contract. I do not expect the price to fall below the lower Bollinger Band. This may be the bottom.
Backtesting the relevance of the mid-line of the BB.
In the bearmarket of 2015, btc price consolidated below the midline. In November 2015 it breached it, and in December it tested the midline for support. After that it crawled up to the upper Bollinger band until the bull market popped.
In November 2018 the price fell below the midline, the price dropped from 6k to 3k.
When it breached the midline in May 2019 and backtested it again for support in June, it again staterd a bullish periode, a midcycle relieve rally. While no exact match, the midline seemed to be close to the bottom this period. With the exception of the covid-crash, often considered an outlier.
Currently the midline sits around 41k. In previous cylces we have not been this low in the Bollinger Bands. But given the significance of the midline, a rally to the midline could possible in some next months (plural!)/year.
Start of a future bull marked would be indicated by a breach and backtest in the following month of that midline, (as it did in nov 2015 and may 2019).
Then 2 possible scenarios: We crawl up to the upper band as in 2015, and ride it until bull market pops. Or it is a mid-cycle rally, as in 2019. We will see...
On the monthly, we are at the bottom of the range. Before a next bull market it is likely the bands need time to contract. I do not expect the price to fall below the lower Bollinger Band. This may be the bottom.
Backtesting the relevance of the mid-line of the BB.
In the bearmarket of 2015, btc price consolidated below the midline. In November 2015 it breached it, and in December it tested the midline for support. After that it crawled up to the upper Bollinger band until the bull market popped.
In November 2018 the price fell below the midline, the price dropped from 6k to 3k.
When it breached the midline in May 2019 and backtested it again for support in June, it again staterd a bullish periode, a midcycle relieve rally. While no exact match, the midline seemed to be close to the bottom this period. With the exception of the covid-crash, often considered an outlier.
Currently the midline sits around 41k. In previous cylces we have not been this low in the Bollinger Bands. But given the significance of the midline, a rally to the midline could possible in some next months (plural!)/year.
Start of a future bull marked would be indicated by a breach and backtest in the following month of that midline, (as it did in nov 2015 and may 2019).
Then 2 possible scenarios: We crawl up to the upper band as in 2015, and ride it until bull market pops. Or it is a mid-cycle rally, as in 2019. We will see...