Interesting to see the month of August end on a bullish note, as we prepare to begin the month of Sept in continuation of the 8-9 months bearish trend.
Jumping off the previous chart 2 days ago, we did see a nice consolidation and a bullish breakout that pushed price to $7100 area and i did warn of an imminent correction to cool off oversold RSI.
However, its been pretty much solid short term bullish action with some extremely easy entries for bulls to play the bull breaks.....
So where are we headed from here?
I am presently looking at weekly, daily, and 4 hour time frames, with lots of focus on daily..........
Weekly— The big picture is that the bearish trend continues, as we are still locked up in a pattern of lower highs, lower lows with no sign of breaking out of the downtrend line yet.
I do not think we can get a sustainable higher high and higher low formations until we hit and hold the $8400 mark and rise above the 50 week MA.
We may need a significant news catalyst and some healthy consolidation for the bulls to get another higher low, and then shoot for higher highs IMO.
But watch out for a bullish MACD cross at the zero level area. The last time we saw a bullish MACD cross was in Oct 2015 and since then, we have not been able to get a bullish cross again after the bearish cross we had in Jan 2018. We are almost crossing right now, and this could happen in the month of Sept. If we get a cross, that will mean a very bullish signal for Bitcoin.
Daily— Pretty much interesting flow here. Locked up within an 8 going to 9 months descending triangle. A holistic view shows that price keeps bouncing off each uptrend support line from the begining of the bear market and then breaking below them on a down wave after being rejected at the downtrend line resistance.
A key point to note here is that, ever since price hit the $6000-$5800 critical support area, price has since then not been able to touch the final uptrend line suppot below. Could the $5800 support area be the final bottom?, Could we see a bounce when price finally hit $6200 (after the ongoing rally exhausts and then corrects back to support) which is a confluence of the uptrend line support and the horizontal support line and then finally break out to begin an uptrend by Sept ending if the fundamentals support this, or simply continue on a long and boring sideways moves? or could we simply break below and retest previous lows or get a new low if ETF is denied or delayed again? Time will tell..........
The present move looks nice for the bulls, consistent higher lows after a positive consolidation with no resistant overhead. An expected rejection ahead at $7300-$7500 downtrend line resistance before another leg downwards.
The important thing right now is the lower lows, if we can get a bounce at $6300, that will mean a third higher low from previous low of $5800, and that should probably point our attention to a slim chance of possible trend reversal IMO.
But on the bearish bias, I do feel at some point in time (especially if the CBOE ETF gets delayed again) we may see a break below the $5800 support into panic area before we finally breakout of the descending triangle to finally begin an uptrend in Nov when BAKKT is expected to launch.
4 Hour--- still the same as our previous chart explanation. The only development here on the chart is that, we are forming a cup and handle here which is a short term bullish Scenario to push price up to the upper resistance area of the trend channel at the downtrend line resistance point of $7300-$7500 area.
We already told you in our previous post that we may see a correction to the $6800 support area to cool off the oversold RSI. The present correction will probably form the handle of the cup that will give us another higher low, and then a higher high before heading downwards to retest previous lows before the Sept rally.
Jumping off the previous chart 2 days ago, we did see a nice consolidation and a bullish breakout that pushed price to $7100 area and i did warn of an imminent correction to cool off oversold RSI.
However, its been pretty much solid short term bullish action with some extremely easy entries for bulls to play the bull breaks.....
So where are we headed from here?
I am presently looking at weekly, daily, and 4 hour time frames, with lots of focus on daily..........
Weekly— The big picture is that the bearish trend continues, as we are still locked up in a pattern of lower highs, lower lows with no sign of breaking out of the downtrend line yet.
I do not think we can get a sustainable higher high and higher low formations until we hit and hold the $8400 mark and rise above the 50 week MA.
We may need a significant news catalyst and some healthy consolidation for the bulls to get another higher low, and then shoot for higher highs IMO.
But watch out for a bullish MACD cross at the zero level area. The last time we saw a bullish MACD cross was in Oct 2015 and since then, we have not been able to get a bullish cross again after the bearish cross we had in Jan 2018. We are almost crossing right now, and this could happen in the month of Sept. If we get a cross, that will mean a very bullish signal for Bitcoin.
Daily— Pretty much interesting flow here. Locked up within an 8 going to 9 months descending triangle. A holistic view shows that price keeps bouncing off each uptrend support line from the begining of the bear market and then breaking below them on a down wave after being rejected at the downtrend line resistance.
A key point to note here is that, ever since price hit the $6000-$5800 critical support area, price has since then not been able to touch the final uptrend line suppot below. Could the $5800 support area be the final bottom?, Could we see a bounce when price finally hit $6200 (after the ongoing rally exhausts and then corrects back to support) which is a confluence of the uptrend line support and the horizontal support line and then finally break out to begin an uptrend by Sept ending if the fundamentals support this, or simply continue on a long and boring sideways moves? or could we simply break below and retest previous lows or get a new low if ETF is denied or delayed again? Time will tell..........
The present move looks nice for the bulls, consistent higher lows after a positive consolidation with no resistant overhead. An expected rejection ahead at $7300-$7500 downtrend line resistance before another leg downwards.
The important thing right now is the lower lows, if we can get a bounce at $6300, that will mean a third higher low from previous low of $5800, and that should probably point our attention to a slim chance of possible trend reversal IMO.
But on the bearish bias, I do feel at some point in time (especially if the CBOE ETF gets delayed again) we may see a break below the $5800 support into panic area before we finally breakout of the descending triangle to finally begin an uptrend in Nov when BAKKT is expected to launch.
4 Hour--- still the same as our previous chart explanation. The only development here on the chart is that, we are forming a cup and handle here which is a short term bullish Scenario to push price up to the upper resistance area of the trend channel at the downtrend line resistance point of $7300-$7500 area.
We already told you in our previous post that we may see a correction to the $6800 support area to cool off the oversold RSI. The present correction will probably form the handle of the cup that will give us another higher low, and then a higher high before heading downwards to retest previous lows before the Sept rally.
