Rejection of 200 weekly EMA could be bullish sign for Bitcoin
If we consider a larger timeframe as the weekly chart, more specifically the 200 weekly EMA, we can see that Bitcoin has been rejected between Dec 2018 and March 2019, slightly pierced on March 2020, and now for the first time revisited and hopefully rejected in May 2022.
Extra bullish factors are:
* Descending yellow wedge, if staying in the wedge, and making momentum around 30K, break-out from the upside is inevitable
* 61.8 % FIB level reached for a 3th time and working as resistance, though we are flirting with it and slightly under
* 8 weeks of RED candles on the weekly chart, which has almost never happened in history, which implies a likely turnaround
* possible finished ABC correction from the top of 70K
* RSI which is in a long descending wedge as well from Jan 2021 until now, which implies a break-out from the top
* Log scale on the right shows we are still on track, and show a possible upside in the ascending orange parallel, within the larger green parallel and possible end of a 4th wave followed by a 5th impulse wave up.
Bearish factors:
* Yellow descending wedge could have a break-out from the downside if we stay under the 61.8% FIB level, or 30K level, which can turn into resistance.
A break-out to the 78.6% FIB or 20K could be a result, which also was the old top, beginning 2018, and worst case could be a visit to the 13K level.
This would totally invalidate the 200 weekly EMA as support.
* Double top of Bitcoin could be the start of a longer correction, but this would imply a visit to the 5K levels, honestly quite impossible in my eyes..
* Bearish cross happened in April where 21 EMA crossed the 50 EMA
Overall I am still bullish on bitcoin. The only problem is the correlation with the stockmarket, the S&P and Dow which are having their correction as well, though it could be coming to an end and continue a next bullish wave. On the other hand, economically and globally we are in uncertain times. Global sentiment is quite pessimistic and there is still blood in the streets. Analysts and economists foresee a greater downside, inflation, depression and global unrest. Fact is that all markets are linked and behaving in similar ways. Eventually what we want to see is the massive implementation of Bitcoin, stablecoins and the best crypto projects survive and getting adopted by institutions and approved by the SEC, even listed as the 12th sector on the S&P 500 index, as Kevin O'Leary foresees it. During global uncertainty and extreme fear is when big investments are made. Many people are expecting a deeper and longer bear-run. Let's not forget that we just had a 3 year during bear-market followed by a 1.5 year bullmarket. The chance we see another 3 year bearmarket is low. In my opinion this double top is an intermezzo on what's still to come. On the logarithmic scale we have a clear shot to the 350K usd towards the end of this year and a 500-600K somewhere second quarter or later. Then we could have some serious issues, or at least a big shift in macro economics.
Extra bullish factors are:
* Descending yellow wedge, if staying in the wedge, and making momentum around 30K, break-out from the upside is inevitable
* 61.8 % FIB level reached for a 3th time and working as resistance, though we are flirting with it and slightly under
* 8 weeks of RED candles on the weekly chart, which has almost never happened in history, which implies a likely turnaround
* possible finished ABC correction from the top of 70K
* RSI which is in a long descending wedge as well from Jan 2021 until now, which implies a break-out from the top
* Log scale on the right shows we are still on track, and show a possible upside in the ascending orange parallel, within the larger green parallel and possible end of a 4th wave followed by a 5th impulse wave up.
Bearish factors:
* Yellow descending wedge could have a break-out from the downside if we stay under the 61.8% FIB level, or 30K level, which can turn into resistance.
A break-out to the 78.6% FIB or 20K could be a result, which also was the old top, beginning 2018, and worst case could be a visit to the 13K level.
This would totally invalidate the 200 weekly EMA as support.
* Double top of Bitcoin could be the start of a longer correction, but this would imply a visit to the 5K levels, honestly quite impossible in my eyes..
* Bearish cross happened in April where 21 EMA crossed the 50 EMA
Overall I am still bullish on bitcoin. The only problem is the correlation with the stockmarket, the S&P and Dow which are having their correction as well, though it could be coming to an end and continue a next bullish wave. On the other hand, economically and globally we are in uncertain times. Global sentiment is quite pessimistic and there is still blood in the streets. Analysts and economists foresee a greater downside, inflation, depression and global unrest. Fact is that all markets are linked and behaving in similar ways. Eventually what we want to see is the massive implementation of Bitcoin, stablecoins and the best crypto projects survive and getting adopted by institutions and approved by the SEC, even listed as the 12th sector on the S&P 500 index, as Kevin O'Leary foresees it. During global uncertainty and extreme fear is when big investments are made. Many people are expecting a deeper and longer bear-run. Let's not forget that we just had a 3 year during bear-market followed by a 1.5 year bullmarket. The chance we see another 3 year bearmarket is low. In my opinion this double top is an intermezzo on what's still to come. On the logarithmic scale we have a clear shot to the 350K usd towards the end of this year and a 500-600K somewhere second quarter or later. Then we could have some serious issues, or at least a big shift in macro economics.
on the right, log scale, bitcoin seems to crawl beneath the green ascending parallel... On my other chart I still foresee a 95k midterm target, together with a bullish continuation of the S&P and Dow