Bitcoin Scenarios

Hello Everyone,
I present here two possible scenarios.
As an Elliott Wave theorist, you need always to have your most probable wave count and then some alternative on the side.
My first scenario was back in May through July. We had a zigzag and then followed by the new wave 5, which has been invalidated.
These are now my two most probable scenarios.

The first one is a raising Triangle. This is my choice number 1. Considering we are still in corrective wave 4, Ralph has noted that triangles are the most common pattern found in wave 4. This is because it lay the foundations for the next impulsive wave.
Also, he explains to always look at the previous correction in wave 2, and by the law of alternation, wave 4 will be an alternate pattern (ex: If wave 2 zig zag then waves 4 triangles or combination).
Now considering that wave 2 back in 2020 was a zig-zag, we can speculate that wave 4 will possibly be either a triangle or a combination of patterns (Double three, Triple three).
Triangle Characteristics:
- 5 waves ABCDE
- Wave ACE are raising higher lows
- Every wave is subdivided into ZigZag waves (3-3-3-3-3)
So the resistance to paying attention will be 58k. If the price is strongly rejected and the lower support trendline fails to hold, the triangle will be invalidated.
If the triangle is validated, which should happen in the next month, then we will see a three-wave up starting from this low to raise slightly above the new ath (wave D) and then one more 3 waves down, which will scare the market (wave E) to complete the triangle.

The second scenario (bearish) is the expanded flat.
Flats are simple corrections and, in this case, the most unlikely due to the alternation law explained earlier. However, there is a chance we see this pattern unfolding followed possibly by a combination (accumulation) at the low.
Flats are composed of 3 waves ABC, Wave A&B are subdivided into 3 waves, and wave C is subdivided into 5 waves being the motive wave of the pattern, forming 3-3-5.
If this scenario holds true, then it means we have just started wave 1 of wave C. However to validate this scenario. We will need to wait for wave 2 to complete. The wave will likely complete between 58k and 62k.
So if BTC fails to reclaim this area with a strong rejection and, as a final confirmation, will lose the lower diagonal support trendline, then it is likely we have formed an expanding flat formation with a target between 30 and 20k depending on the motive wave sequence.
The good news is...BTC will soon have a relief bounce...the bad news is yet to come.

I know this doesn't sound very easy...because it isn't. I will dive into these concepts later with a live/video.
If you have any questions or anything you would like me to explain in more detail in the video later on, please feel free to leave a comment down below.
in the meantime,
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