Potential Price Directions
1. If we manage to break the 10800 line (pink) and the top 11800 trend line, it will be a buy signal. (Estimated Probability - 38%)
2. If we break down to the 9800 region, there will be a potential bullish crab, the wedge will be tightening, possible breakout, might be a good position for a dollar cost average, plus sell the rally. (This also lines up with the .5 fib retracement for the entire previous bullish rally). (Estimated Probability - 65%)
3. Price breaks down to the 7800 regions, wedge is nearly complete, now price can either continue down the channel or break out (pink line). I would expect that price would be less likely to continue down the channel and that a small relief rally would ensue at this moment. (Estimated Probability - 40%)
4. Price breaks down to the bottom of the descending channel (Estimated Probability - 20%)
Moving averages show that the 231 is leveling and suggest consolidating, the 77 is also rising, so we're moving towards a bullish momentum. However the 7 is close to dipping across the 231 and 77. This adds to the probability that situation 2 / 3 is more likely in comparison to situation 1. We still need that 7 on the four-hour/one-hour to rise above the two other moving averages to show that the bullish trend is still ever-present.
Short term bearish OR consolidation for a few days, followed by bullish momentum.
Best regards and many thanks,
P.s. This is purely educationial, use this knowledge with your OWN judgement.
All estimated probabilties are pure guess work according to the previous price action.
Comment:
2. Should be the 8800 region. (Correct Support Price)