TL;DR/It's a Mess, Can't Read the Chart (IMCRTC):
Long on breakout of 6480. Short on breakout of 6200. Confirm with volume.
Bear Targets: 5800, 5600, 5300
Bull Targets: 7000
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Here is another look at Bitcoin.
There are 2 main counts on the chart: red and blue. Red is better measured using fibs, blue is better channelled (blue channel, wave iv breaks out of the channel, wave 5 touches the median line = count is valid).
Both counts are supported by fib levels 1.618/100%/61.8% and have prev completed wave targets.
Blue count can only end at the yellow dot bottom. Red count can end at either of yellow/green bottoms.
Depending on what you consider a bottom (yellow or green dots) we can have either:
- some sort of completed wave iv/(iv) with an expanded flat abc that will go down in wave 5 soon (yellow bottom) or
- 5-wave impulse sequence in A of ABC upwards correction in progress (green bottom) with target around 7000 also going down in wave 5 at some point later (green count)
- we can also make a triangle in B of ABC and go up to around 7000
- wave (iv) retraces to a smaller degree wave iv territory. That's why 6600 and 7150 are key levels (red) supporting down trend continuation.
- there's no bullish count
Fib confluence zones for Bear Targets: 5800, 5600, 5300 (the usual 100% and 1.618 projections of wave i down from waves ii/(ii)/iv/(iv) + algo targets)
Notes on the chart:
- we're in a down trend since Y >>>> 1.618 of W, => 12345 numeration. However, larger degree ABC/WXY is still allowed while the retracement is internal relative to the prev swing. I have already switched to numbers.
- green/yellow bottoms respect the median line of the bigger pitchfork (red). Expect a bounce from 5800 median line, and then another one from 5600 median line.
- the move down respects the purple channel and its median line
- green dot might not be a valid bottom for wave count because only 3 waves of abc are coming in, not 5 waves, hence the whole alt exp flat thing.
- both red/blue counts can have exp flat and it measures pretty well: c = 1.272 of a
- we had a divergence on H1/H4 on RSI/EWO => hence the bounce from the yellow/green bottoms + pitchfork median line
- CME futures will expire on Friday, 31st. Expect a pump around the 21st, ~10 days before expiration. It should happen otherwise we will drop deeper below 5800. Up is basically the only way from around here
- Be careful, shorts >>> longs => bear squeeze incoming any time, especially when we reach april's shorts levels. Watch BFXLS Sentiment
- All alts have already made new ATLs, Bitcoin is no exception and will make one soon too. Expect a drop with another soft bottom spring, then a pump.
- There's no point in squeezing bears before ATL because most of them will only go all in short once we break 5800. So, don't expect a pump to 8K now. The Great Bear Squeeze in April happened only after an ATL
- Caution: Price/Volume Action (Yellow VLine) can also give false signals. Price was rising with Buy volume decreasing (bearish), broke EMA100 and went up instead with buy volume rising past that mid point.
- sell volume in yellow/green dot bottoms is increasing => bears are not done yet, expect another leg down
- huge indecision wicks on D1/W1
- struggling EMA 12,26 crosses on H1/H4
- up trend after the last EMA50 x 200 H4 golden cross lasted for 6 days 12hrs and exactly this much time have passed after the last H4 death cross (bottom could be already in)
- OBV has dropped below its major support level (bearish)
- flush on Bakkt major bullish news (bearish)
Good Luck! I'm working on some indicators, don't have much time for TA.
This is not a financial advice. Use at your own risk, I'm not responsible for possible losses.