daci

BTCUSD ... if history is any guide

daci Updated   
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
This is my very long-term idea of BTC, suggesting that 2018 will be a bearish fractal of 2014.

BTC should become oversold on the weekly. According to the fractal, this should happen around January 2019, with price around 3k.
Remember, bull traps are a fundamental component of a bear cycle, so this time it should be no different. The best trap should be when we break the steep pink downtrend channel, only to realise what lies above - the long red downtrend channel. :)

I will not trade BTC with more than 5% of my portfolio value, until I see my targets reached: ~3k, in 2019. If this scenario gets invalidated (by a major break and close outside of the red downtrend channel), throw this idea into the garbage bin.
Comment:
Price touched the upper side of the falling wedge. We should see some accelerating selling in the following days, for the 2014 wedge to replicate to 2018.

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