In the previous article, we reiterated our belief that Bitcoin is headed lower. Today, we still hold this opinion and expect Bitcoin to drift to the area around $24,000 in the short/medium term (though beyond that, we still stick to the main scenario we have been warning about for the entire bear market rally, which is Bitcoin revisiting its last year’s lows). To support this case, we want to see Bitcoin drop below $26,000. In addition to that, we want to see technical indicators, including RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, continue declining on the daily time frame. On top of that, we also want to see ADX start rising, which would suggest that a bearish trend is growing in strength.
In the coming days, we will pay attention to the stock market, which has been struggling to make new highs recently and whose weakness can have negative implications for Bitcoin. Considering that the tech sector was highly correlated with Bitcoin last year, we think there is a high chance that a positive correlation between the two assets will rise again (and the tech sector will drag down Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrencies). We will update thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of RSI. To support a bearish case, we want to see RSI break below the Support.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of MACD. The yellow arrow indicates MACD’s failure to fully enter a bullish area above the midpoint. That is a bearish development.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
In the coming days, we will pay attention to the stock market, which has been struggling to make new highs recently and whose weakness can have negative implications for Bitcoin. Considering that the tech sector was highly correlated with Bitcoin last year, we think there is a high chance that a positive correlation between the two assets will rise again (and the tech sector will drag down Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrencies). We will update thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.02
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Comment:
Bitcoin is approaching the resistance at $26,800. However, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC kept falling in the past few days, indicating that some whales are liquidating their positions. Therefore, it might be possible that we might see one more fakeout to the upside before moving lower (with retail buying the rip).
Comment:
One more thing to mention: the positive price action in Bitcoin again coincides with news related to the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF. In the past few weeks, we have seen how an initial rise in the price often followed release of such news. However, these gains were later given up.
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