Bitcoin lost its shine after hitting an all-time high of $69000. It hits a low of $15632 and is currently trading around $24889.
Reason for huge sell-off in crypto markets-
Luna coin collapse
FTX fall out
Silver gate collapse
Interest rate fears
US Fed -
Since 2022, the US Federal reserve bank raised interest rates by 450 basis points to tackle inflation. The federal funds rate is at 4.58%. The yellow metal dropped from an all-time high of $2059 to $1622 due to a hawkish rate hike by Fed. Bitcoin dropped further from a minor top of $32357 to $15632.
Luna crashed sharply and lost more than $100 to zero, wiping out over $50bn in market capitalization of UST/LUNA. Bitcoin declined more than $25000 from a minor top of $47000.
Silicon Valley and Signature bank Collapse-
The global stock market and US bond yields plummeted sharply after the collapse of SVB's 16th largest bank in the US and Signature bank. The asset which performed better during the past week is
Gold (up more than 7.5%)
BTC- (Up more than 35%)
The jump was mainly in hopes of a rate pause by the Fed in the coming months. According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Mar increased to 25.5% from 0% a week ago.
Credit Suisse tanked sharply after the Saudi biggest bank rejected to provide support due to a regulatory crisis.
Recent US economic data:
The US economy has added 311000 jobs in Feb from the previous month's 517000, above the estimate of 225000. The unemployment rate increased to 3.6% from 3.4%. (Jump in US unemployment rate negative for US economy).
US CPI rose 0.40% last month in line with the estimate, below 0.50% the previous month. The yearly CPI declined to 6% in Feb from 9.1% in Jul, the smallest annual gain since Sep 2021. (Decline in US inflation also prevents Fed from further rate hikes).
US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.9 in Oct 2022 to 47.40 in Feb 2023.
Technicals-
Major support- $23000. Any break below will take to the next level at $21800/$21200/$20700/$19800/$19000 if possible.
Bull case-
Primary supply zone -$25300. The breach above confirms minor bullishness. A jump to the next level of $27000/$30000 is possible.
Secondary barrier- $30000. A close above that barrier targets $37000/$4000.
It is good to buy on dips around $23000 with SL around $21500 for TP of $30000/$37000.
Reason for huge sell-off in crypto markets-
Luna coin collapse
FTX fall out
Silver gate collapse
Interest rate fears
US Fed -
Since 2022, the US Federal reserve bank raised interest rates by 450 basis points to tackle inflation. The federal funds rate is at 4.58%. The yellow metal dropped from an all-time high of $2059 to $1622 due to a hawkish rate hike by Fed. Bitcoin dropped further from a minor top of $32357 to $15632.
Luna crashed sharply and lost more than $100 to zero, wiping out over $50bn in market capitalization of UST/LUNA. Bitcoin declined more than $25000 from a minor top of $47000.
Silicon Valley and Signature bank Collapse-
The global stock market and US bond yields plummeted sharply after the collapse of SVB's 16th largest bank in the US and Signature bank. The asset which performed better during the past week is
Gold (up more than 7.5%)
BTC- (Up more than 35%)
The jump was mainly in hopes of a rate pause by the Fed in the coming months. According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Mar increased to 25.5% from 0% a week ago.
Credit Suisse tanked sharply after the Saudi biggest bank rejected to provide support due to a regulatory crisis.
Recent US economic data:
The US economy has added 311000 jobs in Feb from the previous month's 517000, above the estimate of 225000. The unemployment rate increased to 3.6% from 3.4%. (Jump in US unemployment rate negative for US economy).
US CPI rose 0.40% last month in line with the estimate, below 0.50% the previous month. The yearly CPI declined to 6% in Feb from 9.1% in Jul, the smallest annual gain since Sep 2021. (Decline in US inflation also prevents Fed from further rate hikes).
US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.9 in Oct 2022 to 47.40 in Feb 2023.
Technicals-
Major support- $23000. Any break below will take to the next level at $21800/$21200/$20700/$19800/$19000 if possible.
Bull case-
Primary supply zone -$25300. The breach above confirms minor bullishness. A jump to the next level of $27000/$30000 is possible.
Secondary barrier- $30000. A close above that barrier targets $37000/$4000.
It is good to buy on dips around $23000 with SL around $21500 for TP of $30000/$37000.