BTC UPDATE FOR NEXT WEEKS - KEY LEVELS AND STAGNATION
Hello, I wanted to post anupdate yesterday but the move mademe riconsider few things and I wanted to see how it behaved today in a business day before posting.
So what we see that the price touched the upper part of the retracement area of the leg from 14k to 4k (blue rectangle), meaning that until we do not broke that 10,046 we are in a retracement of a downward leg, bringing to anothe down leg. Also, we can see a fakeout of the black channel due to fomo. Tha last one was due to excess fear in March and brought the price to the opposite side of the channel. I do not think it will happen this time as the 200ma weekly is at 5800 so I would consider it as a potential bottom. Going below it for a prolonged time would endanger the whole btc ecosystem. Unlikely.
With halving tomorrow, I think the up move we saw was it.
So what to expect?
A last spike up to 9100-9200 can occur (unlikely as I see much fear and attendance now) but the only thing sustaining the price right now is the weak 21ma and the mid line of a big black channel that is tho not indicative for shorts timeframes. Direction is downward.
Where we are now and which are the key levels?
For the moment the small updard channel and the 200 and 100 ma held the price, also we are still above the 200 MA in the btc futures (8700) which is also the level where the 50 weekly ma is. So, 8700 is the first key level to monitor:if we break it as I think it will do, we will go lower to 7700, despite the golden cross forming.
At that point the key level is 7700, as it is the point where two retracement areas are: the beginning of retracement area of the last leg from 4k to 10k and the end above mentioned retracement area of the downward leg. A bounce from there would be great positive signal. If we break again to the downside, we will go probably all the way down to 6xxx area. I personally opt for this second scenario as I see a stagnation period in the following weeks.
This behaviour is in line with the 2016 halving also. Spike in halving anticipation, pullback and relatively lateral movement for few weeks before the start of the run.
Personally I would exploit any movement in the 6xxx area to accumulate more as the btc fair value now is between 6k and 8k (see the related idea for this). The fomo is over and we are still overpriced, that is why we will go lower from here.
Let me know what you think and if you identified any other key level! After this BTC update it is time to analyse ALTs that were overlooked because all the attention was on btc
So what we see that the price touched the upper part of the retracement area of the leg from 14k to 4k (blue rectangle), meaning that until we do not broke that 10,046 we are in a retracement of a downward leg, bringing to anothe down leg. Also, we can see a fakeout of the black channel due to fomo. Tha last one was due to excess fear in March and brought the price to the opposite side of the channel. I do not think it will happen this time as the 200ma weekly is at 5800 so I would consider it as a potential bottom. Going below it for a prolonged time would endanger the whole btc ecosystem. Unlikely.
With halving tomorrow, I think the up move we saw was it.
So what to expect?
A last spike up to 9100-9200 can occur (unlikely as I see much fear and attendance now) but the only thing sustaining the price right now is the weak 21ma and the mid line of a big black channel that is tho not indicative for shorts timeframes. Direction is downward.
Where we are now and which are the key levels?
For the moment the small updard channel and the 200 and 100 ma held the price, also we are still above the 200 MA in the btc futures (8700) which is also the level where the 50 weekly ma is. So, 8700 is the first key level to monitor:if we break it as I think it will do, we will go lower to 7700, despite the golden cross forming.
At that point the key level is 7700, as it is the point where two retracement areas are: the beginning of retracement area of the last leg from 4k to 10k and the end above mentioned retracement area of the downward leg. A bounce from there would be great positive signal. If we break again to the downside, we will go probably all the way down to 6xxx area. I personally opt for this second scenario as I see a stagnation period in the following weeks.
This behaviour is in line with the 2016 halving also. Spike in halving anticipation, pullback and relatively lateral movement for few weeks before the start of the run.
Personally I would exploit any movement in the 6xxx area to accumulate more as the btc fair value now is between 6k and 8k (see the related idea for this). The fomo is over and we are still overpriced, that is why we will go lower from here.
Let me know what you think and if you identified any other key level! After this BTC update it is time to analyse ALTs that were overlooked because all the attention was on btc
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Or simply you don't want to risk it?
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Check it out now → ftmo.com/en/?affiliates=2427
