BTCUSD- Structures in structures in structures
Hi guys,
As you can see from a day or so ago, BTC took a pretty nasty dive. After a roughly two week period of uncertainty (as per the orange color coding of my candles), price has broken back into bearish sentiment. Not only that, but price is very snugly sitting within the MAJOR support structure that has existed since the massive momentum of late 2017. That structure exists between $5519.67 and $6372.25.
Ever since we hit the 6100 price level (in early September after our run up to 7400), I've had a lot of trouble being convinced that we were truly down with downside. A nearly full retrace in a matter of days? Very suspect in my opinion. My suspicions were confirmed when price very swiftly rejected the 0.5 level of the fibonacci, where we saw a bounce near 6750. If you notice, price retested this level in early October, but in my eyes, that is nothing more than a re-entry pullback point, because it's clear price didn't want to stay up.
We formed a very small consolidation zone between 6400-6700 (the region with the orange candles), and with the break below to the previous supporting structure from back in early September, it only makes me thing we're going to go down further from here. My guess is a retest of the 6300-6400 range, followed by a swift break below the 6100 region. Of course, if we break above the now resisting structure found at around 6400, you may consider opening a long, but don't expect much upside from there.
For me to be TRULY comfortable, I would personally want to wait until we break above the 6900-7000 dollar range before opening a long, because otherwise, we are dealing with quite the major resistance. I'm not saying that we're definitely going to test the 5500 region, but I feel as if price has been wanting to test it for an eternity now, and it seems like quite the plausible outcome. If we happen to touch down there, I could see the subsequent run being pretty strong; maybe not a run up to the 10,000s or anything, but maybe a nice retest of the 7500 zone. Fortunately, I'm not too concerned with being an oracle; I only care about what is happening right now, and I plan on reacting accordingly. Being a good trader has less to do with being right and more to do with reacting in an appropriate fashion.
As you can see from a day or so ago, BTC took a pretty nasty dive. After a roughly two week period of uncertainty (as per the orange color coding of my candles), price has broken back into bearish sentiment. Not only that, but price is very snugly sitting within the MAJOR support structure that has existed since the massive momentum of late 2017. That structure exists between $5519.67 and $6372.25.
Ever since we hit the 6100 price level (in early September after our run up to 7400), I've had a lot of trouble being convinced that we were truly down with downside. A nearly full retrace in a matter of days? Very suspect in my opinion. My suspicions were confirmed when price very swiftly rejected the 0.5 level of the fibonacci, where we saw a bounce near 6750. If you notice, price retested this level in early October, but in my eyes, that is nothing more than a re-entry pullback point, because it's clear price didn't want to stay up.
We formed a very small consolidation zone between 6400-6700 (the region with the orange candles), and with the break below to the previous supporting structure from back in early September, it only makes me thing we're going to go down further from here. My guess is a retest of the 6300-6400 range, followed by a swift break below the 6100 region. Of course, if we break above the now resisting structure found at around 6400, you may consider opening a long, but don't expect much upside from there.
For me to be TRULY comfortable, I would personally want to wait until we break above the 6900-7000 dollar range before opening a long, because otherwise, we are dealing with quite the major resistance. I'm not saying that we're definitely going to test the 5500 region, but I feel as if price has been wanting to test it for an eternity now, and it seems like quite the plausible outcome. If we happen to touch down there, I could see the subsequent run being pretty strong; maybe not a run up to the 10,000s or anything, but maybe a nice retest of the 7500 zone. Fortunately, I'm not too concerned with being an oracle; I only care about what is happening right now, and I plan on reacting accordingly. Being a good trader has less to do with being right and more to do with reacting in an appropriate fashion.
Comment:
Welp, this has been a whole lot of nothing haha. Still personally avoiding any buys until price starts reacting a little more strongly.