Yesterday's fully zoomed out view was more strategic. Today, let's get tactical. Since I posted, Bitcoin has pushed itself up against the key resistance level for the correction and we need to know where it's going.
We already know Bitcoin is at a historic crossroads. If not, see my most important update yesterday:
So let's zoom in more with a more traditional chart and look at the key levels for the last year, and how they are coming to collide in the next few weeks. Today, Bitcoin is pushing up against the key resistance. It appears overextended and lacking volume, so a quick pull back to my marked decision zone is expected in the next few days. It is here where we will likely see the fate of Bitcoin for the next couple of months spelled out.
I see two reasonable possibilities:
With the second possibility, our previous analysis suggests a marked "deep value zone" for a market bottom, before the high for this cycle is sought in the next 18 months. Many factors point here, some covered in yesterday's idea. Another is the coveted volume profile point of control being at $32K for the current 12 month period, so value is still only found below that on a cycle-level view.
I have also highlighted a pink trend which could be a wildcard false breakout trend that could push the decision out to as far as May, though I don't expect it to come into play.
Where and when do you expect Bitcoin to find a bottom? Please share your thoughts in the comments below.
This is my first attempt at publishing a shorter term view for Bitcoin. If you like it let me know and I'll be sure to share my ideas at the next key decision point I see. Be sure to check out my long term "roadmap" style ideas on Bitcoin as well.
If you appreciate my analysis and would like to see more in the future, please like and follow!
With that said, this is not investment advice. I am offering my ideas for educational purposes only. Enjoy and take care.
We already know Bitcoin is at a historic crossroads. If not, see my most important update yesterday:
So let's zoom in more with a more traditional chart and look at the key levels for the last year, and how they are coming to collide in the next few weeks. Today, Bitcoin is pushing up against the key resistance. It appears overextended and lacking volume, so a quick pull back to my marked decision zone is expected in the next few days. It is here where we will likely see the fate of Bitcoin for the next couple of months spelled out.
I see two reasonable possibilities:
- There's enough hesitance that the market "crabs" sideways with very little price action on Bitcoin for several weeks. This would be a good period for altcoins.
- The collision of the key downtrend and the key annual price levels forces a market decision, likely to the downside.
With the second possibility, our previous analysis suggests a marked "deep value zone" for a market bottom, before the high for this cycle is sought in the next 18 months. Many factors point here, some covered in yesterday's idea. Another is the coveted volume profile point of control being at $32K for the current 12 month period, so value is still only found below that on a cycle-level view.
I have also highlighted a pink trend which could be a wildcard false breakout trend that could push the decision out to as far as May, though I don't expect it to come into play.
Where and when do you expect Bitcoin to find a bottom? Please share your thoughts in the comments below.
This is my first attempt at publishing a shorter term view for Bitcoin. If you like it let me know and I'll be sure to share my ideas at the next key decision point I see. Be sure to check out my long term "roadmap" style ideas on Bitcoin as well.
If you appreciate my analysis and would like to see more in the future, please like and follow!
With that said, this is not investment advice. I am offering my ideas for educational purposes only. Enjoy and take care.
Comment:
Price just had a fast move down and bounced up off the Key Annual Level as support. We still expect a move into the decision zone in the next few days, though don't be surprised by a rebound to test the key resistance around $41,300 first.
Comment:
Today we had a jump up to the "Wildcard Extension" resistance, which was bounced down off of as would be expected. This raises the possibility of Bitcoin going into further range trading the next couple of months.
Comment:
Today brought another retest of the Wildcard Extension, where it is still holding strong as a resistance. Some indicators are pointing more bullish now, so it is possible we see further short term upside. A break of this resistance with strong volume on a daily close would trigger a long signal for us. For now we are still expecting a break down towards the Key Annual Level soon.
We are now seeing a higher probability of continued range trading the next couple of months. High chop and a significant possibility of the floor falling out bring a need to trade cautiously with tight stops. Many alts will outperform Bitcoin in range trading periods.
We are now seeing a higher probability of continued range trading the next couple of months. High chop and a significant possibility of the floor falling out bring a need to trade cautiously with tight stops. Many alts will outperform Bitcoin in range trading periods.
Comment:
Today we are testing the top of the trading range which Bitcoin is established in. The next day will be crucial. We are strongly expecting a break down at the current resistance and continued range trading. First major support to watch will be $38800. The next is $37000.
Comment:
Since our last update, Bitcoin pushed above the previous high of the trading range, tilting many views further bullish. Today Bitcoin has tentatively managed to retake $47000 after a technical retrace to $44200. We are still not fully bullish on Bitcoin for the next few months, but are keeping a close eye. A weekly close above $52300 would be a strong signal that we are pushing for a new ATH sooner rather than later.
For now, it is treating the MA200 on the hourly as a weak support and indicators are not pointing strongly in one direction or another.
The strength and duration of this rally have tempered our view on the downside potential. If Bitcoin seeks the bottom of the range in the next couple of months, we would now expect that between $40K and $36K.
As predicted in my "roadmap" post, ETH has been gaining ground on BTC and outperforming it throughout this rally, as well as several key alts. We expect this trend to continue.
For now, it is treating the MA200 on the hourly as a weak support and indicators are not pointing strongly in one direction or another.
The strength and duration of this rally have tempered our view on the downside potential. If Bitcoin seeks the bottom of the range in the next couple of months, we would now expect that between $40K and $36K.
As predicted in my "roadmap" post, ETH has been gaining ground on BTC and outperforming it throughout this rally, as well as several key alts. We expect this trend to continue.
Comment:
Support has broken down as SPX is in retracement today (notably losing the 200 day MA as support) with VIX sharply up the last two days. Bitcoin is currently at $43500 and we are targeting $42500 as a short term support.
With the macro economic situation showing broader weakness after US Federal Reserve's more aggressive announcements this week, we continue to express caution about entries into the crypto market. Gold is up sharply today, reflecting a strong risk-off sentiment which will likely increase in the coming weeks, further impacting Bitcoin.
With the macro economic situation showing broader weakness after US Federal Reserve's more aggressive announcements this week, we continue to express caution about entries into the crypto market. Gold is up sharply today, reflecting a strong risk-off sentiment which will likely increase in the coming weeks, further impacting Bitcoin.
Comment:
Bitcoin has completed following the "Wildcard Extension" path we originally pointed out, and is now priced within the decision zone. For now it has settled above the $38800 support we identified last month.
We posted a new idea last week highlighting the classic market pattern BTC has been fulfilling. Continuing this pattern would suggest a further fall, at least below $37000 (which was our next identified support)
We posted a new idea last week highlighting the classic market pattern BTC has been fulfilling. Continuing this pattern would suggest a further fall, at least below $37000 (which was our next identified support)
Comment:
Today Bitcoin has fallen under the $35K target we identified in the idea above. We still see potential for further selloff here, though the key determinant will be the strength of the US market open on Monday, as Bitcoin has maintained a strong correlation to IXIC this year. Another down week would signal our next target of $32K.
Comment:
Today's historic capitulation sent us briefly far down into the marked value zone. With uncertainty about the broader global market higher than was expected when writing this post, it seems there may yet be room for a further fall.
Comment:
With fear around crypto protocols remaining high and continued signals of runaway inflation, the grounds were set for BTC to tumble very near to $20K this week.
BTC is trading at $20.7K at time of update and the support structure around $19K seems like a likely stopping point unless stocks continue falling dramatically from here.
BTC is trading at $20.7K at time of update and the support structure around $19K seems like a likely stopping point unless stocks continue falling dramatically from here.
