Hello guys, okay, I think the next chapter is before us, and so I'll start a new idea.
As predicted, we had a drop ... but what surprised me is the violence of that drop, WAY faster than I thought it would happen. We cut through major supports like nothing. I do count 5 waves, so I think the impulse is over with a low of 4200. I obviously can't guarantee anything, but volume is down, even with the new lows, so I think we are seeing seller exhaustion.
I think now we will enter WAVE 4 ... and given I don't see any huge bounces, I don't think it's going to be much more than sideways action for a month or so ... maybe ranging from 4200 to 5000? It could end prematurely if there's for instance bad news (ETF rejection?).
This impulse wave is WAVE 3, which seems to have taken us from around 6500 territory to 4200 (if it's over) ... 1300 point drop. WAVE 1 was from 8500 to around 5800 ... so a 1700 point drop. WAVE 3 cannot be the shortest, so WAVE 5 should not be longer than 1300 points. Assuming we do go sideways and maybe finish WAVE 4 at the 4500 to 5000 mark, it puts the wave 5 bottom around 3200 to 3700. I show key support at 3484. So that is my most likely bottom right now, but remember, this may only happen in a few months.
My main (highest probability) route is shown in the blue waves drawn, and then there options, as well, one actually would seem to break EW theory (going to 2900), but in actual fact, I'd only expect this if WAVE 3 isn't completely over, and we go to 3900 now.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for investment/trading/financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
As predicted, we had a drop ... but what surprised me is the violence of that drop, WAY faster than I thought it would happen. We cut through major supports like nothing. I do count 5 waves, so I think the impulse is over with a low of 4200. I obviously can't guarantee anything, but volume is down, even with the new lows, so I think we are seeing seller exhaustion.
I think now we will enter WAVE 4 ... and given I don't see any huge bounces, I don't think it's going to be much more than sideways action for a month or so ... maybe ranging from 4200 to 5000? It could end prematurely if there's for instance bad news (ETF rejection?).
This impulse wave is WAVE 3, which seems to have taken us from around 6500 territory to 4200 (if it's over) ... 1300 point drop. WAVE 1 was from 8500 to around 5800 ... so a 1700 point drop. WAVE 3 cannot be the shortest, so WAVE 5 should not be longer than 1300 points. Assuming we do go sideways and maybe finish WAVE 4 at the 4500 to 5000 mark, it puts the wave 5 bottom around 3200 to 3700. I show key support at 3484. So that is my most likely bottom right now, but remember, this may only happen in a few months.
My main (highest probability) route is shown in the blue waves drawn, and then there options, as well, one actually would seem to break EW theory (going to 2900), but in actual fact, I'd only expect this if WAVE 3 isn't completely over, and we go to 3900 now.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for investment/trading/financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
Comment:
This drop continues to surprise me ... no relief.
Here's is what I'm thinking now.
Here's is what I'm thinking now.
Comment:
I am starting to hate guessing the bottom these days ... but I keep doing my TA, this is what I see:
Comment:
Unless you control the BTC market, you don't know where the bottom is. There are at least two forces (and possibly more) ... market controllers who either have decided to exit crypto, or are navigating the price are far down as possible to accumulate cheap coin ahead of a bull run (and there are probably mixtures of both types involved in this drop). There is one other subset of potential market controllers that I recently learned are shorting BTC ... miners, who are trying to hedge the drop, so they can continue to be sustainable (actually a very smart move, but they will need to cover at some point and close or enter long).
The second force is us ... the smaller guys, who all together add up to something big. Unfortunately we act on our own formed greed and fear. Some better than others. I do not attempt to say I am good controlling my emotions, I for sure have gotten better, but more like a war torn vet is better at controlling their fear of facing bullets.
All we can really talk about are key support levels:
- 2980, 2200, 2050, 1810, 900, 750, 560, 400, 350, 300, 215, 160.
- in between, there will be psychological support levels in increments of 500 as the price approaches 1000 and then increments of 100 below 1000. Those supports are considered weak (likely will only be pause points).
That's all I have folks. This drop has been FAR more violent than I expect. My EW plot would say we are finding the bottom right now, and I hesitate to say, it could be the final drop. But I don't see the signs of a major wick down and recovery. I'm worried that the entire market needs to be blown to make that happen ... as in, we have to go to something crazy low like 900. We need the longs to be squeezed in a serious way to cause a cascading domino effect. If we do hold at 2980 (which we are close to now) ... I don't see how that will be a huge wick down and up ... At this stage, a slow decline being pressurized by shorts, and then a slow rise up as shorts become convinced it's not going lower (or at least don't want to enter for the risk of it going up) ... so I see sideways for a long time until there's some fundamentally good news (BAKKT or ETF approval).
Have fun folks!
The second force is us ... the smaller guys, who all together add up to something big. Unfortunately we act on our own formed greed and fear. Some better than others. I do not attempt to say I am good controlling my emotions, I for sure have gotten better, but more like a war torn vet is better at controlling their fear of facing bullets.
All we can really talk about are key support levels:
- 2980, 2200, 2050, 1810, 900, 750, 560, 400, 350, 300, 215, 160.
- in between, there will be psychological support levels in increments of 500 as the price approaches 1000 and then increments of 100 below 1000. Those supports are considered weak (likely will only be pause points).
That's all I have folks. This drop has been FAR more violent than I expect. My EW plot would say we are finding the bottom right now, and I hesitate to say, it could be the final drop. But I don't see the signs of a major wick down and recovery. I'm worried that the entire market needs to be blown to make that happen ... as in, we have to go to something crazy low like 900. We need the longs to be squeezed in a serious way to cause a cascading domino effect. If we do hold at 2980 (which we are close to now) ... I don't see how that will be a huge wick down and up ... At this stage, a slow decline being pressurized by shorts, and then a slow rise up as shorts become convinced it's not going lower (or at least don't want to enter for the risk of it going up) ... so I see sideways for a long time until there's some fundamentally good news (BAKKT or ETF approval).
Have fun folks!
2 minutes ago
Sorry ... one of my contacts caught an error above! WAVE 3 is 6500 to 4300 ... that's a 2200 point drop. WAVE 1 8500 to 5800 is a 2700 point drop. So WAVE 1 is still longer, but this means WAVE 5 could be as much as a 2200 point drop. If we drop from the 4500 to 5000 range after WAVE 4 finishes, that does put 2900 as a target. Given WAVE 3 is weaker than WAVE 1, the trend is for WAVE 5 to be weaker than WAVE 3 ... so I still expect a bottom of around 3484 as my most likely scenario!