BTCUSD
BTC has put on an impressive rally from the November ’22 lows. (+105%)
Now, it looks like it’s about to start turning over again for what I believe is the leg of the bear market.
The Red Median Line set is drawn from major pivots: Dec ’17 high, Dec ’18 Low, and the Nov ’21 High.
I plotted a (yellow) minor fork on ’22-’23 price action to show a potential path to the major (red) Median Line.
Other Factors:
- RSI Bear Div
- Ichimoku Cloud Bearish
- VWAP from the highs holding resistance.
- Strong Dollar
- Continued bearish price moves in equities/risk assets
*Screenshots Below*
I’m expecting a final flush for BTC to approximately $9,000 - $10,000, or a 65% decline from the current price level.
This is also roughly in line with previous cycles.
2015 - 2018 Bull/Bear Cycle: (Bull Market High = $19.8K, Bear Market Low = $3.1K, 84.3% decline)
2018 - 2024 Bull/Bear Cycle: (High = 69K , Low = X, 84.3% decline)
X = $10.8K = Low
Fat_Fat
Comment:
Weekly Ichimoku Cloud
Comment:
Weekly Bear Divergence
Comment:
Anchored VWAP from the ATH
Comment:
9/20/50/200 Weekly EMA Ribbon