The Case for Bitcoin Revisiting (and to buy at) $7-$8k
I don't post on bitcoin very much and I don't intend to start, but all I see people focusing on right now are the short term charts trying to time or call small short term moves. The honest truth is, the easy 400% move is probably done. The money to be made was between March and June. If you don't currently hold any bitcoin from the lower price levels, trying to buy it now is not a smart decision. You might get some singles or doubles like $11k to $13k, but the next home run, triple digit % move requires more time and consolidation. I see enough reasons to wait for a drop back to $7-8k, and here's why:
Monthly (left chart)
1. BTCUSD hit the 50% - 61.8% fib retracement from the last high of 20k. This is typically a short entry position.
2. Price hit the upper range of the Bollinger Bands, which is another profit taking zone.
3. 9 month EMA (purple) is crossing the 20 month EMA (yellow) which is bullish. They're sitting right around $7 - $8k. It is very possible we go back and test them as support before the next run up.
4. MACD had a bullish crossing last month, so we expect further continuation on the monthly chart (but this doesn't mean we can't dip in the shorter time frames)
Weekly (middle chart)
1. BTCUSD has been hugging its upper weekly Bollinger band for some time now. Typically, if a stock hits the upper Bollinger band, it will retest the midline at some point (20 EMA) which just so happens to be sitting at $7k. (This has been happening on the daily chart)
2. Long upper wicks on the weekly candles show bearishness.
3. The next green 50% - 61.8% buy area sits right between $8.6k and $7.3k. This is considered a buy area now because the price broke past the previous minor high.
4. The TMF money flow indicator is showing bearish divergence. This indicator weighs price moves with volume. If it is falling, it means that up moves have lower volume than down moves.
Daily Chart (right chart)
1. The price is once again testing the 20 daily EMA. BTCUSD has visited this EMA a couple times already and usually after 3+ tests of any support or resistance, that support or resistance gets "weak" and is prone to fail.
2. We have not gotten a touch of the 50 SMA yet, so that might happen soon. I think there will be some type of bounce if the 50 SMA is touched, but there's no way to tell right now how powerful that bounce will be.
3. The 50% - 61.8% buy zone coincides with prior consolidation zones in May 2019 and much of 2018, which is more support for that area.
4. The 200 SMA is catching up and it's very possible that it will catch up to $7k area by the time the price breaks the 50 SMA. Remember we probably still need to touch the 50 SMA at least 2 or 3 times before it makes a clean drop below that line.
5. Early signs of falling MACD and TMF on the daily as well.
Monthly (left chart)
1. BTCUSD hit the 50% - 61.8% fib retracement from the last high of 20k. This is typically a short entry position.
2. Price hit the upper range of the Bollinger Bands, which is another profit taking zone.
3. 9 month EMA (purple) is crossing the 20 month EMA (yellow) which is bullish. They're sitting right around $7 - $8k. It is very possible we go back and test them as support before the next run up.
4. MACD had a bullish crossing last month, so we expect further continuation on the monthly chart (but this doesn't mean we can't dip in the shorter time frames)
Weekly (middle chart)
1. BTCUSD has been hugging its upper weekly Bollinger band for some time now. Typically, if a stock hits the upper Bollinger band, it will retest the midline at some point (20 EMA) which just so happens to be sitting at $7k. (This has been happening on the daily chart)
2. Long upper wicks on the weekly candles show bearishness.
3. The next green 50% - 61.8% buy area sits right between $8.6k and $7.3k. This is considered a buy area now because the price broke past the previous minor high.
4. The TMF money flow indicator is showing bearish divergence. This indicator weighs price moves with volume. If it is falling, it means that up moves have lower volume than down moves.
Daily Chart (right chart)
1. The price is once again testing the 20 daily EMA. BTCUSD has visited this EMA a couple times already and usually after 3+ tests of any support or resistance, that support or resistance gets "weak" and is prone to fail.
2. We have not gotten a touch of the 50 SMA yet, so that might happen soon. I think there will be some type of bounce if the 50 SMA is touched, but there's no way to tell right now how powerful that bounce will be.
3. The 50% - 61.8% buy zone coincides with prior consolidation zones in May 2019 and much of 2018, which is more support for that area.
4. The 200 SMA is catching up and it's very possible that it will catch up to $7k area by the time the price breaks the 50 SMA. Remember we probably still need to touch the 50 SMA at least 2 or 3 times before it makes a clean drop below that line.
5. Early signs of falling MACD and TMF on the daily as well.
Comment:
We got the big breakdown to the 200 day SMA today. It is at around $8k now. Not a bad opportunity to get back in for those who were patient! BTCUSD broke out of a pretty big triangle, and I think $5k is a possible short target. Planning to buy some soon, but also ready for more downside.