Bitcoin Crash Setup: Direct Crash or Bounce First?
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has now OFFICIALLY invalidated the bullish PURPLE setup that I covered which had us seeing a nested 1-2,i-ii setup in both BTC and ETH. This pullback is such a strong signal, that I have shifted to the RED bearish pattern as my PRIMARY! This pattern calls for a continuation of the pullback that started after our April 2021 top all the way down into the 20k range! GREEN is my bullish alternate pattern.
In Elliott Wave Theory, there is no stronger sign of a major impending trend reversal than seeing a 5-wave impulse break the price down through support. And that's exactly what we have seen in Bitcoin (and Ethereum)! We have a 5-wave impulse down that has broken below the major support at 39,600. While I expect a sharp 2nd wave bounce before the final drop, the GREEN pattern is NOT fully dead! If see a 5-wave impulse up and 3-wave pullback and the price exceeds our ATH, then the it is the RED pattern that is dead!
The RED alt pattern sees the entire rally from summer into November of 2021 as having been an ABC corrective B-wave rally, or a fake-out. That would make the next movement a ferocious C-wave crash down. As C-waves are always 5-wave patterns, we would look for an impulsive 5-wave movement downwards as the 1st subwave of this larger C-wave. And it appears that we more or less have that in place now in BTC and ETH!
From our Nov 10th top to right now, we can easily count a 5-wave impulsive drop that seems to fit appropriate Fibonacci targets. If this really is Wave-1 down of our larger C-wave down, expect a big Wave-2 bounce up to nearly 60k before the final drop begins. This would take the form of a 3-wave zigzag up and offer us a "gentleman's exit" to unload any holdings in preparation for the ensuing crash. However, there is a small chance that we don't get the bounce; if we break below the 32.7k - 35.9k region directly, I'm exiting my positions! That may be an indication that the 3rd wave down of the larger C-wave has already begun!
In summary, don't panic, but please do have your exit strategy prepared in case things turn bearish! Know when you will sell or IF you plan to sell. If you plan to 'hodl', then commit to it! There is a small chance that we have a 5-wave impulse take us right up through our 68k ATH, which would immediately kill the RED pattern, but until we see that, stay on your toes!
Check out my explainer videos on YT!
I use Elliott Wave analysis to project price levels for different assets and asset classes. EW is a form a technical analysis that is absolutely NOT based on fundamentals. Please be aware that this is not intended to act as financial advice. I am not a trained or certified financial professional. You may invest based on a strategy tailored to your own skill and risk-tolerance levels.
#bitcoin #cryptocurrency #blockchain #crypto
In Elliott Wave Theory, there is no stronger sign of a major impending trend reversal than seeing a 5-wave impulse break the price down through support. And that's exactly what we have seen in Bitcoin (and Ethereum)! We have a 5-wave impulse down that has broken below the major support at 39,600. While I expect a sharp 2nd wave bounce before the final drop, the GREEN pattern is NOT fully dead! If see a 5-wave impulse up and 3-wave pullback and the price exceeds our ATH, then the it is the RED pattern that is dead!
The RED alt pattern sees the entire rally from summer into November of 2021 as having been an ABC corrective B-wave rally, or a fake-out. That would make the next movement a ferocious C-wave crash down. As C-waves are always 5-wave patterns, we would look for an impulsive 5-wave movement downwards as the 1st subwave of this larger C-wave. And it appears that we more or less have that in place now in BTC and ETH!
From our Nov 10th top to right now, we can easily count a 5-wave impulsive drop that seems to fit appropriate Fibonacci targets. If this really is Wave-1 down of our larger C-wave down, expect a big Wave-2 bounce up to nearly 60k before the final drop begins. This would take the form of a 3-wave zigzag up and offer us a "gentleman's exit" to unload any holdings in preparation for the ensuing crash. However, there is a small chance that we don't get the bounce; if we break below the 32.7k - 35.9k region directly, I'm exiting my positions! That may be an indication that the 3rd wave down of the larger C-wave has already begun!
In summary, don't panic, but please do have your exit strategy prepared in case things turn bearish! Know when you will sell or IF you plan to sell. If you plan to 'hodl', then commit to it! There is a small chance that we have a 5-wave impulse take us right up through our 68k ATH, which would immediately kill the RED pattern, but until we see that, stay on your toes!
Check out my explainer videos on YT!
I use Elliott Wave analysis to project price levels for different assets and asset classes. EW is a form a technical analysis that is absolutely NOT based on fundamentals. Please be aware that this is not intended to act as financial advice. I am not a trained or certified financial professional. You may invest based on a strategy tailored to your own skill and risk-tolerance levels.
#bitcoin #cryptocurrency #blockchain #crypto
